The world population will reach eight billion – three times the size it was in 1950 – and although there are more people on Earth than ever before because we are living longer, population growth is at its slowest rate in 70 years. In 2020 the global population growth rate fell below 1%. This is largely due to the declining birth rate, with women having fewer children due to widespread contraception and better education and mobility for women and girls. The world population is also aging – 10% are over 65 and this will increase to 16% by 2050. By 2050, the number of over-65s will be twice that of under-fives. Where is it growing fastest? The two fastest growing regions in the world are East and Southeast Asia, home to 2.3 billion people. and Central and South Asia, which has 2.1 billion people. Currently, China and India are the most populous countries in the world, with 1.4 billion inhabitants each. But based on UN projections, India will overtake China for the first time in 2023. Image: Religious ceremony in Mumbai, India on October 31 More than half of the projected increase in global population by 2050 will be concentrated in eight countries: the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Egypt, Ethiopia, India, Nigeria, Pakistan, the Philippines and the United Republic of Tanzania. Sub-Saharan African countries are expected to contribute more than half of the increase expected by 2050. The biggest increases in growth will come in particular from the Democratic Republic of the Congo and Tanzania, both of which will see their populations double over the next 30 years. Elsewhere in Africa, the biggest growth jumps will be in Nigeria, Ethiopia and Egypt. In Asia outside of India and China, the largest growth will occur in Pakistan and the Philippines. More broadly, 46 of the world’s least developed countries will have the fastest growing populations between now and 2050. Most of this growth (two-thirds) will be driven by what has already happened – and the youthful structure of today’s population. Image: People line up for a COVID test in Beijing, China on November 9 Where is the population shrinking? The world’s population is growing more slowly than it has in decades due to long periods of low fertility. More than two-thirds of people live in countries where women have 2.1 children or fewer. This is roughly the level that would produce zero growth globally. Some 61 countries will see their populations decline by 1% or more between now and 2050 – either due to reduced birth rates or increased levels of immigration. Read more: Overpopulation hits poorest as family planning remains controversial in Nigeria Image: Disaster in Arkhanhelske, Kherson, Ukraine COVID reduces life expectancy Overall life expectancy fell from 72.8 years before the pandemic in 2019 to 71 years in 2021. However, the impact of COVID was not the same for every region. Central and South Asia, Latin America and the Caribbean were hardest hit – with life expectancy falling by around three years. But in Australia and New Zealand, which closed their borders and followed a “zero COVID” policy for most of the pandemic, life expectancy increased by 1.2 years due to a reduced risk of death from other causes during successive lockdowns . The coronavirus may have led to some short-term declines in pregnancies, but there was no sign of an overall decline, UN experts said. What’s next? The world population will continue to grow – to about 8.5 billion people by 2030 and 9.7 billion by 2050. It will begin to peak at about 10.4 billion people in the 2080s and remain at that level until 2100. After that, trends are uncertain. Read more from Sky News: Joe Biden and Xi Jinping ‘very awkward with each other’ Sunak to outline global economic plan at G20 Australia, New Zealand, the rest of Oceania, North Africa and West Asia will continue to grow in population until the end of this century. But the rest of the world, including Europe and North America, will have peaked and started to decline before the year 2100. UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres said of the eight billion milestone: “This is an opportunity to celebrate our diversity, recognize our common humanity and marvel at the advances in health that have extended life spans and dramatically reduced the maternal and child mortality rates”. But he added: “At the same time, it is a reminder of our shared responsibility to care for our planet and a moment to reflect on where we still fall short of our commitments to each other.”
