Democratic Sen. Raphael Warnock released an ad Thursday that, at first, may confuse you.
The ad opens with Donald Trump’s 2024 presidential announcement earlier this week – specifically his endorsement of Warnock’s Republican opponent in the Georgia Senate runoff, Herschel Walker.
“We should all work very hard for a gentleman and a great man named Herschel Walker, a great man who loves our country and will be a great United States Senator,” Trump says.
As Trump continues to speak, six words appear on the screen to close the ad: “Stop Donald Trump. Stop Herschel Walker.”
And that’s all. That’s all advertising.
It is, simply put, what Republicans are openly worried about — and why even many close to Trump wanted him to delay his campaign announcement until after the Dec. 6 runoff between Warnock and Walker.
“I don’t think President Trump should announce his candidacy tonight,” South Carolina GOP Sen. Lindsey Graham said Tuesday before Trump’s speech. “I think most people in the conference would prefer that President Trump not announce tonight.”
Looking at the midterm elections, it’s clear that Trump and the candidates who declined the election he pushed into the GOP nominations were a drag on the party’s overall performance.
Just 39 percent of midterm voters viewed Trump favorably, while 58 percent viewed him unfavorably, according to national exit polls. Another 28% said their House vote was to show opposition to Trump, while just 16% said it was to show support for him.
Especially in Georgia, this margin was narrower. Among voters in the first round of the Senate race, more said they voted against Trump (24%) than for him (19%), exit polls show. Which is notable because 48% of the Georgia Senate electorate said they voted for Trump in 2020, while 43% said they voted for Joe Biden. (Biden won the state by less than 12,000 votes.)
Warnock’s strategy to make the race a straight referendum on Trump has two goals:
1) The democratic base in the state. Much of the work of a runoff election between Thanksgiving and Christmas is to get the people who are already for you to the polls. As demonstrated in several previous election cycles, Trump is a huge motivator for Democratic voters.
2) The suburbs of Atlanta. In the general election, Walker took 49% of the suburban vote compared to 48% for Warnock, according to exit polls. Warnock is betting that linking Walker so directly to Trump will spell the end for swing suburban voters.
The Point: Warnock’s decision to nationalize this race around Trump tells you he thinks the former president is a net negative in the state and will act as an anchor in Walker’s bid to get a majority of the vote.
