Why does this keep happening? The simplest answer is that Israel is deeply – and almost equally – divided over whether Benjamin Netanyahu should be prime minister. But it is also because Israel’s political system is made up of an ideologically diverse set of parties that must form alliances – and sometimes break them – to get what they want. Here is a look at how Israel got to this point and what will follow.
MULTIPARTY POLICY Israelis vote by party, and in the 74-year history of the country no faction has won a majority in the 120-member parliament known as the Knesset. Thus, after each election, any aspiring prime minister must form alliances to garner a majority of at least 61 seats. This gives the small parties a lot of power. After almost every election, the focus is on one or more potential kings and their particular requirements. Thirteen parties were elected to parliament, for example, in last year’s elections. This can lead to weeks of negotiations and trade-offs between various party leaders. If no one can gather a majority, as happened after the elections in April and September 2019, the country returns to the polls and the government remains in office. However, it should not be so difficult. Nationalist and religious parties won a majority of seats in the Knesset in each of the last four elections, if they could agree. That’s where Netanyahu enters.
LOVE HIM OR HATE HIM To his right-wing and religious supporters, Netanyahu is the “King of Israel” – a ruthless nationalist and veteran politician who may have matched world leaders, from Russian Vladimir Putin to US President Joe Biden via of myriads of security challenges. For his opponents – including the leaders of the outgoing coalition – he is at best a swindler and at worst a threat to democracy. They point to his ongoing corruption trial, his authoritarian style and his habit of inciting internal divisions for political gain. Netanyahu was Israel’s longest-serving prime minister, and Likud’s party came first or marginally second in all four elections. But he was never able to form a right-wing majority because some of his ideological allies – including former aides – refused to work with him. Take Avigdor Lieberman for example. The West Bank settler, who leads a right-wing party and has long been known for his fiery anti-Arab rhetoric, would seem like an obvious ally. But he broke up with Netanyahu in 2019 and refuses to sit in a government with him or his ultra-Orthodox allies. Lieberman even backed a bill that would bar anyone charged with criminal charges from serving as prime minister – an attempt to end Netanyahu’s political career.
A USEFUL COALITION Last year, after election No. 4, Netanyahu’s opponents managed to oust him. Naftali Bennett – another former Netanyahu ally – and center-right Yair Lapid have formed a coalition of eight political parties across the ideological spectrum – from right-wing nationalists to supporters of the Palestinian state, including a small Arab Islamist. The factions put aside their ideological differences and collaborated for a while. The government approved a budget, overcame two waves of coronavirus without imposing a lockdown, improved diplomatic relations with Arab and Muslim countries and avoided war. Bennett, as prime minister, even tried to mediate between Russia and Ukraine. But from the beginning, the government had the smallest majority and Netanyahu put enormous pressure on its right-wing members, accusing them of collaborating with terrorists and betraying their voters. Several right-wing members of the coalition have received death threats, including Bennett. In the end, many bent down and Bennett’s Yamina party collapsed. The government lost its majority in April. This month, he failed to pass a law extending special legal status to Jewish settlers in the occupied West Bank, which most Israelis see as necessary.
NEW ELECTIONS, SAME DIVISION The Israelis are now expected to return to the polls in October, where they will face a well-known choice. Netanyahu is hoping for a return and Likud and his allies are expected to win more votes than last time. Some of his right-wing opponents, weakened by their alliance with the coalition, could lose some or all of their seats. But it is too early for a credible poll, and even if Netanyahu and his allies secure more seats, they could fall short of the majority once again. If that happens, it will be up to many of the same parties that formed the outgoing government to form a new coalition, one that would deal with the same stressors as the previous one. What if neither side has enough support to form a government? You guessed it: New elections.
