A defining characteristic of the dark horse is that he must start the World Cup at full gallop. While the eventual winners may start slowly, the dark horse bursts into view, knowing that its best chance of success lies in surprising its victims with its intensity. South Korea’s first game in 2002 saw them confound Poland with the sheer speed of their counter-attacks, while Senegal did the same to France in the same competition, beating them 1-0. In fact, the trophy holders should be especially wary: Just look at Argentina, who were beaten 1-0 by Cameroon in 1990 as they began their title defence. At this point, it has to be said that there has been some debate about what a dark horse actually is. Belgium, for example, were wrongly seen by many as a dark horse in 2014, even though almost everyone knew their attacking threat: They had a squad that boasted Eden Hazard, Kevin De Bruyne, Romelu Lukaku and Dries Mertens. You can’t be a dark horse if the whole world sees you coming. For the same reason, any attempt to label Senegal as a dark horse must be rejected. They are the African champions and their forward line is led by Sadio Mane, a man who just finished second in the Ballon d’Or voting. (Though Mane might not be fit for the group stages.) If there really is a dark horse at this World Cup, it’s going to be someone like Tunisia: a team with good finishers and a pretty poor defense, which recently produced very impressive results. results against decent opposition, beating Chile 2-0 and Japan 3-0 earlier this year. Crucially, most of their players are at clubs that are just under the radar of the casual observer – in that respect, they are similar to Costa Rica in 2014. 2014 was a vintage World Cup in terms of dark horses, which at first glance suggests this might not be. The 2014 World Cup, after all, was a competition in which an impressive number of traditional big teams were just past their prime – England, Spain and Uruguay, for example – and vulnerable to being picked on by younger ones , more aggressive opponents. This time, however, all these powers are replenished. If there really is a dark horse element to this tournament, it will be the World Cup schedule itself. Two years ago, my Stadio co-presenter Ryan Hunn wrote of “the volatility of this unprecedented season” and his words seem even more applicable as Qatar approaches. We’ve simply never seen a World Cup like this – one that comes at the end of a grueling autumn, when many teams have looked visibly shaken by the efforts of recent weeks and when some players have openly expressed their relief to have managed to avoid injury. Many top footballers, too, have just come straight out of the rigors of an accelerated Champions League group stage. There has been almost no time to rekindle team chemistry between players who haven’t seen each other in a while, and about half of the teams won’t get a chance to play a friendly before the World Cup. This means some nations will have to start finding their best teams while the competition is underway, which could easily lead to a strange result or two. In addition, there are key absentees who have weakened the bigger teams. France, for example, have been forced to revamp their squad, having lost to injury the first-choice midfield of Paul Pogba and N’Golo Kante who won them the World Cup in 2018. They are fortunate to have ready replacements in their duo Real Madrid, Aurélien Tchouaméni and Eduardo Camavinga, but is asking a lot of players just turned 20 to check the pace of a title-defending team. Meanwhile, Giovani Lo Celso has been ruled out for Argentina, a particular blow for them as he is a playmaker who enjoyed a rare on-field bond with Leo Messi. These uncertainties can pave the way for a less heralded opponent – say Denmark in France’s group – to take advantage. However, in the end, Qatar is the true dark horse. No one knows what to expect from this World Cup, either on or off the pitch. It is not the crowning glory of the calendar but something that has fallen on the sidelines, something that needs to be dealt with desperately and out of necessity, like an overdue tax return. Instead of allowing us a leisurely build-up, it has broken down the status quo, hitting our turf at full gallop. It is hard to think of a major event that has emerged amid so much confusion. After his departure, we’ll move right on down to resuming the juggernaut of domestic football. but while he’s here, he’s guaranteed to make his mark.
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