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With the dust now settling after the events of Tuesday night, we have a better idea of how Democrats defied the historical trend where the president’s party usually takes off in his first midterm. To be sure, the House seems much more likely to swing to Republicans on Thursday morning than in the wee hours of Wednesday. And Republicans also held three of the four Senate seats they needed to protect to have even a shot at a majority — North Carolina, Wisconsin and Ohio. But what is clear is that Democrats still have a chance to hold onto the Senate, especially with Sen. Raphael Warnock and Herschel Walker’s Georgia race going into overtime with a runoff next month. Missing Sen. Maggie Hassan easily won re-election in New Hampshire and John Fetterman triumphed in Pennsylvania. If Mark Kelly wins a full term in Arizona, and if mail-in ballots go Sen. Catherine Cortez Masto’s way in Nevada — as they seem to be happening so far — then the Democrats might actually do it. As a clearer picture emerges between a map in red and blue, it’s easier to see where Democrats have done well, where they’ve missed opportunities, and where they’ve failed. We told you which matches to watch here and here, so we’ll use the same metrics now. The Good: Suburbs, New England, and Latinos Women’s outrage over the Supreme Court’s overturning of Roe v Wade turned into a bulwark against the Republican onslaught. Democrats holding Virginia’s 10th and 7th districts were the first positive signs of that. While Republicans knocked out Jan. 6 committee member Elaine Luria in Virginia’s 2nd district, they did so mainly because her home’s electorate turned much redder after the most recent round of redistricting. Democrats also didn’t fare too badly in New England. We said if Jahana Hayes lost in Connecticut’s 5th district, the Republicans could pull through, but in the end, she won back George Logan. This was a big boost for the party, as was Seth Magaziner winning Rhode Island’s 2nd district and Chris Pappas winning New Hampshire’s 1st. The most surprising area of growth, though? Democrats did relatively well in heavily Latino districts. While it’s true that Republicans ran the gauntlet in heavily Latino South Florida, that region of the country has its own politics all its own. While Texas Republican Monica De La Cruz won the new 15th district in the Rio Grande Valley, Democrat Vicente Gonzalez won back Republican Mayra Flores in the 34th (and that’s after winning a special election earlier this year.) Meanwhile, Rep. Henry Cuella — Democrat — won in Texas’ 28th district. Democrats also captured Colorado’s newly drawn 8th district. All of this should help Democrats breathe easier as Arizona and Nevada approach their Senate results. The missed opportunities: Ohio and North Carolina Many Democrats are lamenting that Rep. Tim Ryan failed to defeat Sen.-elect JD Vance in the Ohio Senate race. But his race was always going to be tough in a state won by Donald Trump. And his candidacy likely helped Democrats in swing districts, so it ultimately counts as a net plus. The same cannot be said for North Carolina. There was reason to be optimistic about Cheri Beasley in her Senate race against Trump-endorsed Ted Budd, but national Democrats, possibly feeling burdened by too many races in the Senate, invested very little in the race. This was a poor decision considering Mitch McConnell’s Senate Leadership Fund spent $38.3 million attacking his nominee. North Carolina Democrats have every right to be mad about it – especially given that they flipped the state’s 13th district and stayed in the state’s 1st, even after redistricting made it tougher. The Downright Bad: New York and Wisconsin For Tuesday’s crazy events, no state gave Democrats more heartburn than New York. In April, the state Court of Appeals threw out a congressional map that Democrats crafted to shore up their party. This in turn led to a new map that was much less favorable to Democrats. Although Gov. Kathy Hochul won overall, as the city and state results came in, it was clear that Democrats had suffered where she lost. Nowhere was this more clear than on Long Island, where Republicans won four seats. The carnage was so bad that Sean Patrick Maloney, the chairman of the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, lost his race in the 17th district despite moving seats to give himself an easier path — ousting progressive Rep. Mondaire Jones. Likewise, even with the party in “shoulda, woulda, coulda” mode after its North Carolina Senate loss, national Democrats from James Clyburn to Elizabeth Warren will be disappointed to see their work for Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes to go to waste in Wisconsin. There were high hopes that Barnes could unseat Sen. Ron Johnson, but he ended up getting absolutely slammed for the crime — attacks that likely prevented him from winning a race.
