Republicans are favored to win the lower house with 20 seats still up for grabs, but Democrats still have a fighting chance in the race to win the necessary 218 seats. As of Sunday afternoon, the Associated Press projected Republicans to win 211 seats and Democrats 204. That means out of the remaining 20 contests, Republicans need just seven more seats to win the majority, while Democrats need 14. For Democrats to achieve that goal, they need to win all the races they currently lead and a few others where Republicans have a small lead. Just over half of the undecided races are in California, where ballots are sent to all active voters, creating a slower classification process. Arizona, Colorado, Oregon have two uncalled games, while Alaska, Maine and New York each have one. Here’s what Democrats would have to do to win the House majority:
Keep the nine seats with solid Democratic leads
Alaska at large: With just over 80 percent of the votes counted in Alaska’s primary, Rep. Mary Sattler Peltola (D) has 47 percent of the first-place vote. If he doesn’t get a majority in the first round, officials will reject the lowest-ranked candidate and redistribute the second-place votes of their supporters, continuing until a candidate reaches a majority. It’s possible that Peltola will cross the threshold in the first round, but even if she doesn’t, she’s close to winning a majority in the next round.
California 6th: Rep. Ami Bera (D) appears likely to win re-election, but The Associated Press has not yet called the race, as nearly half the votes have yet to be reported. But NBC and ABC have both predicted Bera as the winner, and he leads by 12 percentage points among votes already cast.
California 9th: Rep. Josh Harder (D) is running for re-election in this Central Valley district that includes Stockton, though he’s largely facing new voters after redistricting. Harder currently leads Republican Tom Patti, who sits on the San Joaquin County Board of Supervisors, by 13 percentage points with about half the votes counted.
California’s 21st: Further south in California’s Central Valley, including Fresno, Rep. Jim Costa (D) is running for re-election in a district that voted by double digits for Biden in 2020. With three-quarters of the vote, Costa leads by 9 points over former FBI Special Agent Michael Maher (R).
California 47th: In this district that includes Irvine and other parts of Orange County, Rep. Katie Porter (D), a prominent progressive, has a 3-point lead over Republican Scott Boe. But 28 percent of the estimated votes have yet to be reported.
California’s 49th: Rep. Mike Levin (D) has just a 5-point lead over Republican Brian Maryott in this Southern California district, which includes parts of Orange County and stretches south near San Diego. Twenty-nine percent of the estimated vote remains, but Levin has recently widened his lead, and Dave Wasserman of the Cook Political Report projected Levin as the winner.
Colorado’s 8th: With nearly all votes counted, Democrat Yadira Caraveo leads Republican Barbara Kirkmeyer by just 0.7 percentage points in the district, which includes parts of suburban Denver and stretches north into more rural areas. Despite the fight remaining unclaimed, Kirkmeyer conceded the bout on Wednesday.
Maine 2nd: Moderate Rep. Jared Golden (R) has a 3-point lead over Republican challenger Bruce Poliken. Almost every vote is tabulated, but Maine uses a ranked-choice voting system. Golden remains at 48.5%, just short of the majority needed to outright win the first round. Golden’s lead gives him an advantage in later rounds when others are eliminated, but the Democrat himself ousted Poliquin in 2018 after falling behind in the first round.
Oregon 6th: In Salem and parts of southwest Portland suburbs, Democrat Andrea Salinas has a 1.8-point lead over Republican Mike Erickson. 19% of votes have not yet been reported. Salinas on Wednesday said she is confident she will come out on top once all the votes are counted, while Erickson on Friday said his team remains optimistic.
Win five out of six seats where the count is neck and neck
1st Arizona: Rep. David Schweikert (R) is fighting to hold on to his most Democratic-friendly seat during redistricting. Democrat David Hodge leads by less than a percentage point with 14 percent of the estimated votes cast. The area is located in Maricopa County, including Scottsdale and other parts of the Phoenix area. The counting of postal ballots, which is expected to be completed by Tuesday, is expected to turn red as time goes on. Arizona 6th: Republican Juan Siscomani, a former senior adviser to the governor of Arizona, leads former Arizona state Rep. Kirsten Engel (D) by just 0.45 percent. 13 percent of the estimated vote remains in the district, which includes parts of Tucson. The winner will replace retiring Rep. Ann Kirkpatrick (D), whose seat has been more favorable to Republicans this year. California 13th: Businessman John Duarte (R) is in a near tie with moderate California state Rep. Adam Gray (D), with just 0.11 percentage points separating the two candidates. But nearly 49 percent of the estimated vote remains in that Central Valley district that includes Merced. 22nd California: Rep. David Valadao is the only House Republican running this year who was referred to former President Trump and did not face a Trump-endorsed primary challenger. However, with just over half the votes counted, Valadao has just a 5-point lead over Democrat Rudy Salas, giving Democrats hope that the seat could still be within reach. The area includes Bakersfield and parts of the Central Valley. Stephen Miller blames GOP midterm performance on McConnell, funding, messaging. California 41st: Rep. Ken Calvert (R) leads Democrat Will Rollins by 1.5 points as of Sunday in this Riverside County district. However, about a third of the estimated votes remain pending, potentially setting the stage for Democrats to flip the seat. After redistricting, Calvert’s seat now includes areas such as Palm Springs, which is known for its LGBTQ community. Colorado 3rd: Rep. Lauren Boebert (R) leads by a narrow margin of just 0.35 percentage points. With nearly all the votes counted, the narrow margin could trigger an automatic recount, Wasserman thought Boebert would likely win. The rest of the districts appear to be headed in the Republican direction.
