Comment A potentially historic blizzard is set to blanket some of the continent’s most snow-tolerant cities with accumulations of up to 4 feet. Buffalo and Watertown, New York — two cities on the eastern edges of Lake Erie and Lake Ontario, respectively — are in line for an extreme lake-effect snow event. The National Weather Service in Buffalo takes an unusually serious tone in its forecast, writing that the episode could be “catastrophic.” A 36-hour period of rapid accumulation, complete with thunderstorms and near-blizzard conditions, is expected to follow between Thursday and Saturday. The heaviest snow is expected late Thursday through Friday night. Snowfall rates could become excessive – exceeding 2 to 3 inches per hour – overwhelming even the fastest shoveler or snowblower. The combination of heavy snow and winds gusting up to 35 mph will severely limit visibility. “Travel will be difficult to impossible,” the Met Office warned. “Some major roads could be temporarily closed.” Liz Jurkowski, a meteorologist with the Weather Service in Buffalo, said the office is rushing to spread the word to the local agencies it supports. “This is going to be a major event,” he told the Washington Post. Southern California sees gusts over 80 mph, fire danger as Santa Ana winds roar Complicating the forecast is the localized nature of the lake-effect snow, which will fall in bands only a few miles wide. Like summer storms, this means a community could be pounded while a nearby neighborhood remains untouched — except for a downpour, by surprising amounts of snow. Snowfall warnings for the lake are in effect for the usually vulnerable snow zones downwind of the lakes, with winter storm watches or winter weather advisories in surrounding counties. That’s where forecasters are less sure about the snow band’s maneuver, but have raised alerts to raise awareness of the possibility of greater impacts. Accumulations are expected to be about 2 to 3 feet within the Buffalo city limits. But amounts could reach 4 feet if the main snow band is delayed, the Weather Service warned. Just 30 miles to the south, only 2 to 4 inches is possible. Off Lake Ontario, the heaviest totals will accumulate east of Chaumont and Henderson bays near and north of Watertown, a town of about 25,000 in western New York. A general 1 to 3 feet is likely, although more cannot be ruled out. Outside of the two main snow belts, cities like Rochester and Geneva, or further north in Old Forge or Utica, may only see an inch or two of accumulation. Early season lake effect snow will become widespread and heavy over the next few days. Some places can have several feet of snow for dangerous travel. ❄️😬 pic.twitter.com/ZJ3LA1cpae — NWS Weather Prediction Center (@NWSWPC) November 15, 2022 Instigating wild snow is a persistent high-altitude disturbance or pocket of cold, low-pressure, rotating air aloft. It’s nestled in a dip in the jet stream and will be over the Great Lakes on Thursday. It will then continue to dive east-southeast, circling directly over Lake Ontario before crossing over to New England. The positioning of this upper level system will direct a steady flow of west-southwesterly winds along the entire draw of the lakes. This cold air blowing across the water, as opposed to water temperatures in the 50s, will allow strong amounts of moisture to rise into the atmosphere. This will produce moderate to strong heat transfer or vertical heat transfer. In other words, the same processes that create summer storms, except the snow will fall. The same general weather pattern set to bury Buffalo and Watertown will also unleash a cold blast across the northeastern United States, with wintry temperatures in stark contrast to the unusual calm of the past week. Jurkowski compared the upcoming blizzard to a record-breaking crash in mid-November 2014, which dumped up to 88 inches of snow. While the jackpot was in Wyoming County, New York, schools were closed for more than a week in Buffalo and Interstate 90 was shut down. Twenty-six people died as a result of the storm, mostly as a result of heart attacks that occurred while shoveling snow. The New York National Guard was brought in to help clear the snow. “There is [another event of this magnitude] in 2000 we compare it,” Jurkowski said. “Before that some stuff in the 1980s. It doesn’t happen very often.” He explained that the heaviest snow will begin Thursday night, but the snow band will last through Sunday. “The band may swing north on Saturday, but then it will swing south on Sunday,” she explained, referring to subtle changes in wind patterns. “We’re not just looking at a twelve-hour event or a day. It’s been a long time.” Buffalo averages about 90 inches of snow a year, and while residents are used to snowfall, Jurgoswki tried to remind people that this is on a different level. “People around here know very well that the effects of the lake can [be] very localized and depends on how the wind blows, but we should all be prepared just to be on the safe side,” he said.
