These by-elections can tell us a lot about the Conservative Party’s prospects in the next general election. Can his grip on the Red Wall – the former Labor strongholds with exit votes that gave him victory in 2019 – slip? Did the Liberal Democrats regain their mojo as experts in local, insurgent campaigns that mobilize dissatisfaction with the government? By-elections can generally tell us whether public dissatisfaction with the party and the cost of living is turning into action at the ballot box. The Conservatives have already suffered two humiliating defeats in the by-elections by the Liberal Democrats in the last 12 months: first in Chesham & Amersham, where they were at the wrong end of a 25-point swing, and then in North Shropshire, after resigning. of MP Owen Patterson, on an even bigger swing of 34 points. Tiverton & Honiton has a lot in common with the latter – it is a predominantly rural area, slightly larger and less ethnically different from the national average, which voted in favor of leaving the EU in 2016 by a margin of 58 to 42. It has been a safe haven for the Tories for a long time – winning the party in every election since its inception in 1997. While the Liberal Democrats typically won about 30% of the vote by 2010, the party did not have a strong showing here in the election since the coalition. This is simply not the kind of thing the Conservative Party should lose, even during the blues in between. Wakefield, a former industrial city in the North of England, is a different proposition. Occupied by the Labor Party between 1931 and 2019, it is also slightly older and less ethnically diverse than the national average – but is significantly more deprived (ranked 161st in the Multiple Deprivation Index for English constituencies). Like many of the seats the Conservatives won in Labor in 2019, he voted overwhelmingly (63 against 37) in favor of leaving the EU in the 2016 referendum. Labor is the clear challenger here. In terms of pure electoral numbers, by-elections represent very different electoral challenges. Wakefield is the 48th most marginalized Conservative constituency. Labor requires a swing of just 3.8 points to win the seat. If the government lost all its seats by a narrow margin to the Labor Party in a general election, it would be without a majority in parliament. Tiverton & Honiton, by contrast, is the 293rd most marginalized Conservative seat. If the Conservatives lost every seat held by the party with a smaller majority in the general election, it would be reduced to just 72 MPs in Westminster. A defeat in Wakefield would launch a warning shot from the Labor Party against the government bow, suggesting the prime minister’s appeal to the Red Wall in the north of England may not be as strong as some have claimed. A defeat at Tiverton & Honiton would be disastrous. In addition to signaling the depth of frustration with the Prime Minister and his party, it will further establish the Liberal Democrats’ tendency to inflict heavy losses on the Conservative Party. What would it mean for a general election? If backed by a general election, it could lead the Conservatives into a tweezers movement – to defend themselves against the Liberal Democrats’s challenges in their traditional home, while trying to resist a renewed Labor Party in its newly won Red Wall. Historically, by-elections have provided a criterion for governments’ future electoral prospects. Every government tends to lose support in by-elections, but those who repeatedly lose badly tend to do worse in the next general election. In this parliament to date, the government has seen its vote share drop by an average of 7.3% in the disputed by-elections. This compares somewhat favorably with many of its predecessors, but is rather exaggerated by the party’s big win in Hartpool in May 2021. These recent midterm elections may provide further clues as to whether the Conservatives are losing touch with the electorate or whether they can regain the trust of voters before they can go to the polls.
