SATURDAY AM: Refresh for more analysis and charts What we know for sure is that Disney and Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever posted the 10th highest opening day of all time at $84 million. Today is a game-changer in how high or low this MCU title plays at 2 hours and 41 minutes long.
The opening weekend range is between $175M and $185M now. However, some detractors believe the Ryan Coogler-directed film could top $190 million. What is it that makes prediction difficult for many? Veterans Day falls on Friday. You don’t know how much of that big first day is driven by the movie or the amount of kids who left school, which totaled 83% between K-12 and college. The last time Veterans Day fell on a Friday was in 2016. The CinemaScore is an A, versus Black Panther’s A+.
After previews, Friday earned $56 million, which is more than what Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness did on its first Friday without previews, $54.7 million. If today plays even with yesterday, then Wakanda Forever is at $179 million. If Wakanda Forever plays like Spider-Man: No Way Home between Friday (without previews) and Saturday, it will end up with $181.8 million, and if it mimics a gross pattern like Doctor Strange 2 between a clean Friday and Saturday (+6%), then it will climb to $184.6M for the weekend (all Sundays here are factored in down -30% from Saturday). Note that the weekend gross pattern for the first Black Panther is out the window as a group, as this was during a 4-day Presidents Day holiday weekend, with drops registering -13% on Saturday vs. Friday and -9% on Sunday vs. Saturday.
Imax and PLF repeat nearly 35% of the picture’s ticket sales. I’m hearing that Wakanda Forever will post the biggest opening weekend for Imax for November, which is in line with Hunger Games: Catching Fire. The weekend Imax numbers here for the Coogler film beat previous Bonds and Marvel films by leaps and bounds. Anecdotally, it was very hard to get a good seat at the Porter Ranch AMC north of Los Angeles in the Dolby Theater yesterday and today, which highlights, as some have told me, the need for more premium movie formats when we have stage weekends like this one.
Audience outings continue to be stellar for Wakanda Forever, with a 93% on Comscore’s Screen Engine/PostTrak and an 85% sure-recommendation with kids under 12, giving it a near 100% and 72% recommend. Gender skew at 52%, 45% between 18-34, with 37% over 35. Very diverse cast with 44% Black lead, 21% Hispanic and Latino, 20% Caucasian, and 15% Asian/other.
How good is Wakanda Forever for the economy? The pic pushes the entire weekend box office to an estimated $219 million in ticket sales, +261% from last weekend’s $60.8 million drop and +100% from the same weekend a year ago (Weekend 45); when the Disney/Marvel Eternals debuted. Going up on Friday, four theaters were north of $200,000, ten were over $150,000, 65 were over $100,000 and close to 460 were north of $50,000, which is outstanding.
It was missing Rounding out the top 10 was Cinegalaxy’s Indian sci-fi film Yashoda in 200 theaters across 84 markets, with Hindi, Tamil and Telugu releases. The numbers were okay in New York, San Francisco, Dallas and Seattle for what’s shaping up to be a $395,000 opening. The film by directors Haresh Narayan and K. Hari Shankar follows a pregnant woman named Yashodha who is advised to follow some guidelines regarding her physical and mental well-being and safety. However, a set of events occur that cause her to live on the edge, jeopardizing her well-being.
1.) Black Panther: Wakanda Forever (Dis), 4,396 theaters, Fri $84m, 3 days $175m-$185m/week 1
2.) Black Adam (NL) 3,603 (-382) theaters, Fri $2.7M (-43%), 3 days $10M (-45%)/Total $152.5M/Week 4
3.) Ticket to Heaven (Uni) 3,633 (-433) theaters, Fri $2.1m (-17%), $6.3m 3-day (-25%)/Total $56.7m/week 4
4.) Lyle, Lyle Crocodile (Sony) 2,486 (-519) theaters, Fri $1.125m (+52%), $3m 3-day (-9%)/Total: $40.6m/wk 6
5.) Smile (Par) 2,271 (-775) theaters, Fri $800,000 (-31%), 3 days $2,285M (-43%), $102.7M total/week 7
6.) Prey for the Devil (LG) 2,164 (-816) theaters, Fri $678,000 (-40%), 3 days $1.9M (-51%) Total $16.8M/ Week 3
7.) One Piece Film Red (Crunchy) 2,161 (-206) theaters, Fri $481,000 (-90%), 3 days $1.53M (-84%)/Total $12.8M/wk 2
8.) Banshees of Inisherin (Sea) 960 (+65) Free $548,000 (-25%), $1.5M 3-Day (-25%), Total $5.6M/4 Weeks
9.) To (UAR) 1,358 (-778) theaters, Fri $193,000 (-63%), $685,000 3-day (-63%)/$8.1M total/week 5
10.) Yashoda (Cine) 200 theaters, Fri $137,000, 3 days $395,000/week 1
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FRIDAY NOON: We’re currently hearing that Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is on track for an $80M+ Friday, for what should be a $170M-$180M opening weekend in 4,396 theaters.
There’s hope that Ryan Coogler’s directorial debut could surpass Doctor Strange’s $187.4 million opening for Multiverse of Madness, however, it’s still too early. Currently in hourly hours, Wakanda Forever is beating Doctor Strange 2 and Thor: Love & Thunder. Continuity doesn’t seem to be front-loaded. If it mimics Doctor Strange 2 exactly, its 3 days will be less than that movie. Doctor Strange 2 dropped 36% on Saturday and 32% on Sunday. As for Wakanda Forever not getting $8 million in previews from Doctor Strange 2, sources attribute that to the time of year and running times. More people were available in early May than now on a Thursday night, plus Doctor Strange 2 clocked in at 2 hours and 6 minutes while Wakanda Forever is 2 hours and 41 minutes.
With an $80 million opening day that includes last night’s $28 million, Wakanda Forever is the 13th highest opening day of all time, just behind The Avengers’ $80.8 million (May 4, 2012). An opening of $170-180 million puts Wakanda Forever in the top 17 US openings at the BO, a streak that includes MCU titles like Captain America: Civil War ($179.1 million, No. 13) and Iron Man 3 ($174, $1 million, No. 16).
On the 2nd, New Line/DC’s Black Adam’s fourth weekend is between $7,000,000-$11,000,000 in 3,603 theaters, down between 38% and 61% for a current through Sunday total between $150M-$154M.
Third belongs to Universal’s fourth weekend of Ticket to Paradise at 3,633, which looks to a fourth Friday of $2.4M, -9%, and a 3-day $6.9M, -19%, and $57.3M total.
Sony’s Lyle, Lyle Crocodile at 2,486 has a sixth Friday of $1.1M and an estimated sixth weekend of $3.3M, even with last weekend and Sunday’s $40.9M.
Fifth goes Paramount’s seventh weekend of Smile in 2,271 theaters with a Friday of $675K, 3 days of $1.9M, -52% and a Sunday total of $102.3M.
A scene from Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever. Photo courtesy of Marvel Studios. © 2022 MARVEL. Miracle Q. Q: As expected, Disney and Marvel Studios’ Black Panther: Wakanda Forever is on fire with a $28 million Thursday, easily outpacing 2018’s $25.2 million preview night for the first Black Panther. Wakanda Forever ranks as the third-best Thursday preview of the year behind Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness ($36M) and Thor: Love and Thunder’s ($29M). Overall, Black Panther 2 previews rank as the 15th highest preview performance in industry history and give the Marvel Cinematic Universe six of the top 15 launches. The 3-day run for Wakanda Forever is between $175 million and $200 million in 4,936 theaters.
Nothing surprising here, as previews for Wakanda Forever are lower than Thor: Love & Thunder , which, while panned by critics and earned a B+ CinemaScore, managed a $144 million opening. The share of previews on MCU opening weekends varies. Thor: Love & Thunder’s took 19% of its 3-day, while Doctor Strange 2’s 19% of its $187M, Black Panther’s Thursday was 12% of its $202M and Captain Marvel’s 21M was 14% of its 153 million dollars 3 days.
Other great signs for the weekend: Wakanda Forever accounted for more than 80% of the online retailer’s Veterans Day ticket sales today. Comscore scores a 52% discount in K-12 schools today and another 31% in colleges. The Marvel Studios title has been their No. 1 daily ticket seller for the past two weeks. 82% of fans on Fandango who buy tickets for Wakanda say it’s their most anticipated movie this year. We’re hearing that Wakanda Forever ticket presales weren’t advance, but were spread evenly over the weekend. Disney reports that as of yesterday, Wakanda Forever had $66 million in pre-sales, which is behind Doctor Strange 2’s $85 million, but ahead of Thor: Love & Thunder’s $48 million.
Wakanda Forever, which began previews at 3pm yesterday, currently boasts a Rotten Tomatoes audience rating of 94% compared to the original Black Panther’s 79%. Audience exits from Screen Engine/Comscore are even better at 5 stars for general audiences, parents and children under 12. The overall proposal to the general public is a high 83%. Thursday night’s audience was 42% Black, 22% Hispanic and Latino, 20% Caucasian and 10% Asian. 34% were men over 25 (90% grade), 26% were women over 25 (95% grade), 25% were men under 25 (87%) and 15% were women under of 25 years (grade 98%). Among children under 12, 61% were boys, 39% were girls.
The critical score for Black Panther 2 stands at 85% certified fresh, which is down from the first film’s 96%. That won’t hurt Wakanda Forever’s momentum this weekend, though. It will be rich for everyone from the theater circuit to Imax.
Among regular releases, New Line/DC’s Black Adam finishes its third week with $23.7 million and a current total of $142.5 million. Thursday at $950,000, it was -11% from Wednesday at 3,985 theaters. Universal’s Ticket to Paradise finishes its third weekend with $12.1M, a total of $50.4M from 4,066 theaters and a Thursday of $840,000 which was off 7% yesterday. Crunchyroll’s One Piece Movie…
