Voters are casting final ballots in races that will determine control of the closely divided House and Senate, as well as governors’ mansions across the country, amid concerns about inflation and gas prices that have created severe headwinds for the Democrats.
Republicans have run against the party in power, blaming Americans’ economic insecurities on President Joe Biden and the Democrats. They have already promised to launch investigations into the administration and cripple its agenda if they win the House majority, and many of their nominees have repeated former President Donald Trump’s campaign lies, leading to Biden’s repeated warnings of threats to democracy. .
But it’s the economy that’s been on the minds of voters this fall. With all 435 House seats up for grabs on Tuesday, Democrats are even defending seats that Biden would have won handily two years ago. His low approval ratings — combined with the historic challenges facing a president’s party in his first midterm cycle — have left Republicans optimistic about their chances of building a large enough majority in the House, where they need only a net gain of five seats. Between Labor Day and Election Day, nine of the 10 House races that received the most ad spending featured Democratic incumbents — a sign of the danger the party in power is in.
Control of the Senate, currently split 50-50 with Vice President Kamala Harris holding the tie, remains on a razor’s edge as Democrats cling to seats in battleground states such as Nevada, Georgia, Arizona and New Hampshire. Republicans need only a net gain of one seat to win the majority.
But as they try to contain Republicans, Democrats are also trying to pick up seats to protect themselves from losing. Their best chance is in the perennial state of Pennsylvania, where Democratic Lt. Gov. John Fetterman and Republican Mehmet Oz are vying to replace retiring Sen. Pat Tomei in what has become the nation’s most expensive Senate contest this fall. Democrats are also trying to defeat Wisconsin Sen. Ron Johnson, a close Trump ally, who remains the most vulnerable Senate governor as he faces Democratic Lt. Gov. Mandela Barnes.
The economic blows of the Covid-19 pandemic, followed by rising gas and food prices, have forced many working-class Americans to dip into their savings and cut back on everyday expenses, creating a sour mood in the electorate as the voters are bracing for a possible recession. In a recent CNN poll conducted by SSRS, three-quarters of Americans said they feel the US is already in a recession.
While there are many factors driving inflation — including lingering supply chain issues and Russian President Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine — voters are also registering frustration with Biden, whose approval rating was 41% in the latest poll of CNN.
Frustration with Washington’s inability to significantly reduce costs has left Democrats on shaky ground even in reliably blue states like California, Oregon and New York. The latter two feature surprisingly competitive skipper competitions. And there are more than enough contested House seats in those states just for Republicans to win the House majority.
Democrats hoped the Supreme Court’s decision in late June to overturn abortion rights would help them turn the tide. But while the decision helped close some of the enthusiasm gap between Republicans and Democrats, it may not have had as much of an effect as Democrats had hoped in some key races.
Biden, stuck clinging to mostly blue states, has repeatedly warned that “democracy is on the ballot” after Trump promoted several Republican candidates who echoed his lies for the 2020 election. But like abortion access, the fragility of democracy consistently ranks lower than the economy and inflation when voters are asked about their biggest concerns ahead of the election.
But talk of the threat to democracy is evident in some gubernatorial and secretary of state circles over the prospect that a pro-Trump election denies candidates who could end up in positions that would allow them to manage the 2024 presidential election.
The midterms will serve as a crucial proving ground for Trump, who has cast a long shadow over the Republican Party as he has used the appearances of the candidates he has promoted to tease his potential 2024 presidential campaign.
Appearing in Ohio on Monday night for his chosen Senate candidate JD Vance, who was in a surprisingly tight race against Democrat Tim Ryan in a state Trump won twice, the former president said he would make a big announcement in March. The -a-Lago resort on November 15. CNN previously reported that aides were eyeing the third week of November for a campaign — timing that would allow Trump to take credit for the GOP’s successes in the midterm elections. He’s hoping a good night for his candidates — including a full slate of no-choice voters in Arizona — could help him build momentum for a third run at the White House.
Ahead of a potential rematch with Trump, Biden’s sliding approval ratings have made him an unwelcome presence on the campaign trail in swing states. He spent the eve of the election rallying in Maryland for Democratic gubernatorial candidate Wes Moore and in New York several days earlier for Democratic Gov. Kathy Hotchul.
Republican momentum in the closing stages of the campaign – especially in the House race – has put the White House on notice about possible upcoming frustrations of governing in a divided Washington. The GOP has already promised relentless investigations and hearings focusing on the Justice Department, the administration’s border policies, the US withdrawal from Afghanistan and the president’s son, Hunter Biden. In an exclusive interview with CNN on Sunday, House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy left the door open to impeachment proceedings against the president.
A divided government in Washington could allow Biden to exercise his presidential veto to thwart Republican plans to extend Trump-era tax cuts and any attempt to pass a national abortion ban. But it could also spark fiscal showdowns and threats of a government shutdown. A conflict could also be looming over raising the debt ceiling.
