The world’s population is expected to hit about 8 billion people on Tuesday, according to a United Nations forecast, with much of the increase coming from developing countries in Africa. Among them is Nigeria, where resources are already stretched to the limit. More than 15 million people in Lagos compete for everything from electricity to light their homes to spots on busy buses, often two-hour commutes each way in this sprawling metropolis. Some Nigerian children started for school as early as 5 in the morning And over the next three decades, the West African nation’s population is expected to grow even more: from 216 million this year to 375 million, the UN says. This will make Nigeria the fourth most populous country in the world after India, China and the United States. “We are already overextending what we have — housing, roads, hospitals, schools. Everything is overstretched,” said Gyang Dalyop, an urban planning and development consultant in Nigeria. The United Nations Day milestone of 8 billion on Tuesday is more symbolic than accurate, cautious officials note in a wide-ranging report released over the summer that makes some startling predictions. The upward trend threatens to leave even more people in developing countries further behind as governments struggle to provide enough classrooms and jobs for a rapidly growing number of young people and food insecurity becomes an even more urgent problem. Nigeria is among eight countries the UN says will account for more than half of the world’s population growth between now and 2050 — along with other African countries Congo, Ethiopia and Tanzania. “The population in many countries in sub-Saharan Africa is projected to double between 2022 and 2050, putting additional pressure on already strained resources and challenging policies aimed at reducing poverty and inequalities,” the UN report says. It predicted that the world population would reach about 8.5 billion in 2030, 9.7 billion in 2050 and 10.4 billion in 2100. Other countries rounding out the list with the fastest growing populations are Egypt, Pakistan, the Philippines and India, which is set to overtake China as the world’s most populous nation next year. In Congo’s capital, Kinshasa, home to more than 12 million people, many families struggle to find affordable housing and pay school fees. While primary school students attend school for free, older children’s chances depend on their parents’ income. “My children took turns going to school,” said Luc Kyungu, a truck driver in Kinshasa who has six children. “Two studied while others waited because of money. If I didn’t have so many children, they would have finished their studies on time.” Rapid population growth also means more people are competing for scarce water resources and leaves more families facing hunger as climate change increasingly affects crop production in many parts of the world. “There is also more pressure on the environment, increasing food security challenges that are also exacerbated by climate change,” said Dr Srinath Reddy, president of the Public Health Foundation of India. “Reducing inequality while focusing on climate change adaptation and mitigation should be where our policymakers should be focusing.” But experts say the biggest threat to the environment is consumption, which is higher in developed countries that aren’t experiencing large population increases. “Global data shows that a small fraction of the world’s people use most of the Earth’s resources and produce most of the greenhouse gas emissions,” said Poonam Muttreja, executive director of the Population Foundation of India. “Over the past 25 years, the richest 10% of the world’s population has been responsible for more than half of carbon emissions.” According to the UN, the population in sub-Saharan Africa is growing at 2.5 percent a year — more than three times the global average. Some of this can be attributed to people living longer, but family size remains the driving factor. Women in sub-Saharan Africa have an average of 4.6 births, double the current global average of 2.3. Families are getting bigger when women start having children early, and 4 in 10 girls in Africa are married before they turn 18, according to UN figures. The continent’s teenage pregnancy rate is the highest in the world — about half of the children born last year to mothers under 20 worldwide were in sub-Saharan Africa. But any effort to reduce family size now would be too late to significantly slow growth projections in 2050, the UN said. About two-thirds of this “will be driven by the momentum of previous growth.” “Such growth would occur even if fertility in today’s high-fertility countries fell immediately to about two births per woman,” the report says. There are also important cultural reasons for large families. In sub-Saharan Africa, children are seen as a blessing and a source of support for elders – the more sons and daughters, the greater comfort in retirement. But some large families “may not have what it takes to really feed them,” says Eunice Azimi, a Lagos-based insurance broker and mother of three. “In Nigeria, we believe that it is God who gives children,” he said. “They see it as the more children you have, the more benefits. And you actually overtake your peers who can’t have as many children. It’s like a competition in villages.” Politics also played a role in Tanzania, where former president John Magufuli, who ruled the East African country from 2015 until his death in 2021, discouraged birth control, saying a large population was good for the economy. He opposed family planning programs promoted by outside groups and in a speech in 2019 urged women not to “block the ovaries”. He even described contraceptive users as “lazy” in a country he said was full of cheap food. Under Magufuli, pregnant schoolgirls were even banned from returning to classrooms. But his successor, Samia Suluhu Hasan, appeared to reverse government policy in comments last month when she said birth control was necessary to avoid overwhelming the country’s public infrastructure. Although the population is soaring in some countries, the UN reports that rates are expected to decline by 1% or more in 61 countries. The US population is now about 333 million, according to data from the US Census Bureau. The population growth rate in 2021 was just 0.1%, the lowest since the country was founded. “Going forward, we will have slower growth — the question is how slow?” said William Frey, a demographer at the Brookings Institution. “The real wild card for the US and many other developed countries is immigration.” Charles Kenny, a senior fellow at the Center for Global Development in Washington, says environmental concerns around the 8 billion mark should focus on consumption, particularly in developed countries. “Population is not the problem, the way we consume is the problem — let’s change our consumption patterns,” he said. Asadu reported from Abuja, Nigeria. Associated Press writers Krista Larson in Dakar, Senegal. Sibi Arasu in Bengaluru, India. Grand Wanjohi in Sharm El Sheikh, Egypt. Christina Larson in Washington. Rodney Muhumuza in Kampala, Uganda and Jean-Yves Kamale in Kinshasa, Congo contributed. 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