With millions of votes still to be counted Wednesday across the nation’s most populous state, uncertainty remained for about a dozen of the state’s 52 House races. The most competitive of these races were in the Los Angeles area and the rural Central Valley. In Southern California, Democratic Reps. Katie Porter and Mike Levin were shut out in close races, despite President Joe Biden’s recent campaigning on their behalf. East of Los Angeles, Republican Rep. Ken Calvert trailed Democrat Will Rollins by 12 points, but less than a third of the expected votes had been counted. In the Central Valley, GOP Rep. David Valadao, who voted to impeach then-President Donald Trump, had 54 percent of the vote counted so far in his race against Democrat Rudy Salas, but most ballots had not yet been counted. Four years ago, Valadao lost a re-election bid after seeing a sizable lead on Election Day evaporate as late-arriving ballots were counted. He won the seat again in 2020. If Democrats defeat Calvert and win other contests where they were ahead or slightly behind, the year would have echoes of 2018, when the party picked up seven Republican-held California seats en route to retaking the House. But if Calvert hangs on and Republicans oust Porter and Levin and win an open seat in Central California, the scenario will resemble 2020, when Republican House candidates won four seats in a state where registered Democrats outnumber Republicans by nearly 2 to 1. . As votes are still being counted in key races “we don’t know if California is a political tribe or an island,” said Thad Kusher, a political science professor at the University of California, San Diego. If Democrats can hold on to Porter and Levin’s seats and oust Calvert, “that red ripple that went across the country becomes a blue counter-ripple,” he added. More generally, California followed its liberal leanings heavily on Election Day. Governor Gavin Newsom and US Senator Alex Padilla, both Democrats, were easily re-elected, voters overwhelmingly supported enshrining abortion rights in the state constitution, and the legislature remained firmly in Democratic hands. Democrats also appeared able to maintain their dominance of all statewide offices. A Republican hasn’t won one of those races in California since 2006, when Arnold Schwarzenegger was re-elected governor. The possibility of little change mirrored the national political landscape, in which predictions of a Republican “wave” sweeping Congress into firm GOP control failed to materialize. Republicans were closing in on a slim majority in the House, while control of the Senate will be decided by close races in Arizona, Nevada and Georgia. A loss to Porter would be surprising, since she spent more than $24 million to win a third term. She is a star of the party’s progressive wing, a prolific fundraiser with a national following and is often mentioned as a future candidate for the US Senate. With about half the votes counted, she was virtually tied with Republican Scott Baugh, who has relentlessly criticized her for rising gas and food prices in a narrowly divided coastal region with a conservative streak. Porter focused heavily on protecting reproductive rights after the Supreme Court overturned Roe v. Wade. Calvert — the longest-serving Republican in California’s congressional delegation — was first elected in 1992. His endorsement by Trump posed a challenge in a newly redrawn district about evenly split between Democrats and Republicans, which included many transplanted Los Angeles residents and liberal Palm Springs, which has a large concentration of LGBTQ voters. In a district anchored in San Diego County, Levin was in a tight race with Republican Brian Marriott, who also targeted pocketbook issues that were a top concern for voters nationally. Biden campaigned for it just days before Election Day. California Republicans believed as many as five House districts in the state could flip — enough to give the GOP the House gift in a midterm election year when voters typically punish the party that holds White. House. Republican Rep. Kevin McCarthy of Bakersfield will be in line to replace Speaker Nancy Pelosi of San Francisco. Democrats hoped to regain the four seats they surrendered in 2020 and strengthen their dominance of the state’s congressional delegation. Republicans hold just 11 of the state’s 53 seats, which will drop to 52 seats next year because California’s once-rapid population growth has stalled. One of the closest contests was for an open seat, the Central Valley’s 13th District, which leans prominently Democratic and has a large Latino population. But the most likely voters tend to be white, older, more affluent homeowners, while working-class voters, including many Latinos, are less consistent at the polls. Republican John Duarte and Democrat Adam Gray were nearly tied. In a Democratic-leaning district north of Los Angeles, Republican Rep. Mike Garcia held a 15-point lead over Democrat Christy Smith in their third straight race. Garcia won the previous two.
