Here are three scenarios that could unfold in the coming hours. Beyond the shifts in power on Capitol Hill, however, there are broader implications if, as polls suggest, Republicans have a successful night. The extent to which Donald Trump is the future, and not just the past, will be revealed in the coming hours. Results counted in USA – live updates His Make America Great Again (MAGA) movement has grown from the fringes of the Republican Party following its defeat in the 2020 election to now being the dominant force. And with his running mates, Donald Trump has essentially built a loyal base to support his 2024 presidential bid. Crucially, because his running mate is overwhelmingly election-denying, insisting — as he is — that the 2020 election was stolen by Joe Biden, they set the stage for chaos in 2024. (It’s important to note that recounts, audits and court cases across the country concluded that the 2020 election was fair.) But between now and then, here’s how things could play out: Scenario 1 Democrats hold the Senate, but Republicans hold the House of Representatives Likelihood: High Domestic implications: President Biden and his party will face a slew of House-led investigations. Everything from withdrawing from Afghanistan to the FBI’s investigation into Trump — to the southern border policy and Biden’s COVID policies could face House investigations. Biden’s son, Hunter, could face an investigation into alleged tax fraud. The January 6 committee on the Capitol uprising would be disbanded. There is an outside chance that Republicans will attempt to impeach President Biden. Some believe his liberal border policies constitute “high crimes and misdemeanors” that would lead to his impeachment. International implications: Although bipartisanship has so far been rare in Ukraine, there is growing concern among right-wing populists about the cost of Ukraine’s aid. The modern Republican Party is much more insular than the party of Reagan or the Bush dynasty. So expect an effort to rein in spending and less support for Ukraine. On the climate agenda, a Republican-controlled House will make a green agenda much more complex with Republicans able to represent their pro-coal and pro-oil constituents more effectively. Image: Mr Trump has hinted strongly that he will run for president again Scenario 2 Republicans hold both the House of Representatives and the Senate Probability: Moderate to high Domestic implications: Mr. Biden is becoming a lame-duck president. His agenda would be blocked at every turn — even on issues where there was bipartisan cooperation in Biden’s first two years, like gun control and infrastructure. A national 15-week abortion ban will be put to a vote by the GOP right. Democrats will be able to use the filibuster mechanism to prolong debate on the issue. International Implications: The implications described in the scenario would apply, but would be more likely to play out. The key issue to watch will be continued US support for Ukraine. It will depend on the power given to the ultra-MAGA right wing of the Republican Party. The messages being sent about American priorities could have profound geopolitical implications. On climate change, America can effectively be written out of any progressive green agenda – which will massively affect global climate goals. Image: Interim terms could affect America’s economic and military support for Ukraine Scenario 3 Democrats hold both the House of Representatives and the Senate Likelihood: Low Domestic implications: Joe Biden’s liberal agenda is moving forward. The extent to which the policies could be implemented depends on the strength of the Democratic majority in the Senate. But if Democrats expand their majority, expect to see an effort to deepen the President’s Build Back Better agenda, which was watered down to pass elements of it earlier this year. Key policies on issues such as climate change will be revived. Watch for efforts to protect key issues: abortion rights could be codified into law, and national protections for same-sex marriage and voting rights are possible. Use Chrome browser for more accessible video player 1:02 How do midterm elections work? If Democrats were able to expand their majority, they might be able to remove the filibuster: a mechanism that requires legislation to get 60 votes to pass and that has thwarted their efforts to advance legislation. International implications: Beyond climate change commitments, expect a renewed commitment to continue supporting Ukraine diplomatically as well as financially and militarily. Basically, the usual for Mr. Biden.
