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The success or failure of monumental decisions – including going to war – can be decided by timing. If Argentina’s dictator, Leopoldo Galtieri, had waited just six months to invade the Falklands, there would have been no task force for Britain to retake the islands. The aircraft carriers Invincible and Hermes, intrinsic to the mission’s success, would have been delivered to Australia and India. Would Vladimir Putin’s invasion of Ukraine have been so bad if he had waited until 2024 when Donald Trump could potentially be president? Trump, the man accused of being the Muscovite candidate for the White House – who was willing to accept the Russian occupation of Crimea and had faced an impeachment inquiry for denying military aid to Kiev – would actually provide billions of dollars to Volodymyr’s government Zelensky of arms, enabling his country to strike back? If China’s Xi Jinping, currently running over Taiwan, delayed any invasion he might have planned – what would Trump’s reaction be? He also threatened to withdraw US forces from the Indo-Pacific and warned allies in the region that they should not expect the US to defend them against Beijing. Trump confirmed his 2024 bid for the White House in a speech at Mar-a-Lago on Tuesday night. Of course, it is not inevitable that Trump will win the Republican nomination, trailing Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis in the polls. The performance of the candidates he supported in the midterm polls was poor. More and more senior Republicans (including those who were previously staunch loyalists) are now saying it’s time for the party to move on. A YouGov poll over the weekend showed DeSantis with a seven-point lead among Republicans and Republican voters for the nomination. But it’s worth remembering that in 2016, nine months before Trump won the presidency, an NBC News/Wall Street Journal poll gave Ted Cruz a two-point lead over Trump. There is a long way to go before the nominations are closed. Now we await the announcement of the former president. A second Trump term will be stormy. One can imagine how a bitter and vindictive, twice-impeached president would go after his domestic enemies, including those in the Republican party, law enforcement, the military commander-in-chief, the judiciary, the media, and more. A whole range of international issues – from conflict to human rights and the rules-based international order – will be affected. as is the climate crisis under the president who pulled out of the Paris accords during his first term. At the same time, Trump’s authoritarian allies will no doubt believe they enjoy a degree of impunity. After the second round of elections in Brazil on October 30, there was real concern that Jair Bolsanaro would refuse to accept defeat after losing to Lula Inacio Lula da Silva. The “Trump of the Tropics,” as he likes to be called, is parroting the Trump script that any loss would prove him a victim of “stolen” votes. One reason that didn’t happen was the speed with which Joe Biden recognized Lula as the winner. This was followed by Emmanuel Macron, Rishi Sunak, Putin, Xi Jinping and Narendra Modi. The US government, according to reports, was ready to send Jake Sullivan, the national security adviser, to read Bolsonaro the riot act. Trump, meanwhile, had intervened in the final days of the campaign to urge voters to block Lula: “A radical left-wing lunatic who will quickly destroy your country.” “Jair Bolsonaro and I have become great friends over the last few years for the people of the United States,” he said. “He is a wonderful man and has my full and total support.” Even as Bolsonaro’s chances continued to fade, there was hope among some supporters for another roll of the dice with another election: the US midterms. A Republican takeover of Congress, the theory goes, would help improve any measures the Biden administration might take against Bolsonaro if he refuses to step down. The “red wave” of the Republicans did not happen. At a rally of Bolsonaro supporters at the G-16 arms club in Sao Paulo, Heitor Pereira, a businessman, spoke of feeling let down by the US. “There was a time when the US supported strong government in South America,” he said. “Now, they choose not to stop a communist who will try to turn this country into Venezuela. This is a big mistake by Biden. They will regret it.” The bad days of the CIA deposing democratic, progressive governments in Latin America – and replacing them with murderous military regimes for the sake of US political and commercial interests – seem, thankfully, to be over. Trump, however, reportedly suggested in 2017 to his stunned White House team — including national security adviser HR McMaster and Secretary of State Rex Tillerson — that they invade Venezuela to oust the government of Nicolas Maduro. The next day, speaking at his golf course in New Jersey, he warmed to the subject. “We have many options for Venezuela,” he said. “This is our neighbor. We are all over the world and we have troops all over the world in places that are far, far away. Venezuela is not far away… we have many options for Venezuela – including a possible military option – if necessary.” There may well be opposition to something like the Venezuelan adventure from the military and intelligence services if it is proposed in the future. However, the possibility remains that Trump will carry out a purge of their hierarchy. There is a possibility that if he is returned to office, Trump will fire Christopher Wray – who he appointed as FBI director after James Comey was fired over the Russiagate investigation. Wray was targeted after the raid on Mar-a-Lago to retrieve classified documents taken by Trump. Trump’s former national security adviser Michael Flynn — who was pardoned for lying to the FBI about secret meetings with the Russian ambassador to the U.S. — may once again be assigned a senior security role. The chairman of the joint chiefs, Gen. Mark Miley, drew Trump’s ire by refusing to use troops against protesters, then apologized for participating in a Trump-led photo opportunity during the George Floyd protests. It was just one of many clashes between the then-president – a Vietnam soldier – and current and former senior officers. The CIA, in Trump’s world, was part of the dark state bent on undermining his presidency and sabotaging his efforts to improve relations with Putin. The former president had often spoken of “witch hunts” being organized to get rid of him. The fact that the whistleblower whose revelations led to Trump’s impeachment inquiry turned out to be a CIA officer added to that narrative. The president had allegedly halted a $400 million emergency military package to Ukraine in an effort to pressure the Zelenskyi administration to launch an investigation into the financial affairs of Hunter Biden, son of Joe Biden — then his Democratic rival in presidential elections. race. Trump claimed his special relationship with Putin would have prevented war in Ukraine. He also called for an immediate ceasefire in the conflict – which would effectively mean Ukrainian forces would be stopped in their tracks as they successfully liberate occupied territory. Trump’s supporters (and his son, Donald Jr.) have voiced their opposition to continued military aid to Ukraine. Fox News host Tucker Carlson has often repeated the Kremlin’s version of the conflict. In Congress, far-right Republicans like Marjorie Taylor Greene have accused Ukraine of provoking the Russian invasion. Will the conflict in Ukraine be over by the time Trump can have a tilt at the White House? There is that possibility, but it doesn’t seem likely at the moment. The recapture of Kherson by Ukrainian forces is another major setback for the Russians. But the next stage of the battle – in the south and Donbass – is likely to be protracted and destructive. Even if the current war ends in the near future, it does not mean that Ukraine or other European countries will be safe with another Trump presidency. During his first term, Trump regularly attacked NATO – which now supports Ukraine with weapons and funds – while praising Putin. One of his last orders before leaving office was to withdraw American troops from Germany. He had suggested that countries with autocratic rulers outside Europe – Saudi Arabia under its de facto leader Mohammed bin Salman and Bolsonaro’s Brazil – should join the alliance. Before the last US election, retired Lt. Gen. Douglas Lute – a former US ambassador to NATO – said that if Trump won: “His announced intention to withdraw US forces from Europe would become a reality, thus proving the withdrawal of commitment of the US and the reduction of NATO’s deterrent posture. Some have argued that Trump may withdraw from NATO altogether in his second term. John Bolton, his former national security adviser, claims there was a real possibility the US would withdraw in the absence of people like him persuading Trump to stay. “It wasn’t that we convinced him that NATO is actually a very good alliance, but that he just saw that he couldn’t cross the line and actually call for withdrawal,” Bolton said. “Once he’s re-elected, that political guardrail – if not completely gone – is significantly reduced.” Three months ago, Ukrainians were losing more than 100 people and seeing 300 injured every day in Donbass. Moscow seemed close to seizing the region. 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