The global fertility rate has more than halved since the 1950s to 2.3 births per woman. As mortality also declines, the number of people aged 65 and over is expected to rise from 783 million in 2022 to 1 billion by 2030 and reach 1.4 billion by 2043, according to UN population data . This increase of 623 million in 20 years compares with the seven decades it took for the over-65 population to grow by 651 million to its current total. The total world population is expected to peak at 10.4 billion in the 2080s. By contrast, the number of people under 15 is believed to have peaked last year at 2 billion, while the share of people aged 15 to 64, traditionally considered working age, is falling. “The coming decades will be characterized by a rapid increase in the number of elderly people, as the large cohorts born in the middle of the last century grow older.” said Sarah Hertog, UN population officer.
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The global median age has risen by about eight years to 30 since 1950 and is set to rise to 36 by 2050, a number that exceeds 50 in eastern Asia and southern Europe, according to UN figures. Population aging is “a triumph of development efforts,” said Norbert Miners, a professor at the Oxford Institute for Aging Population. People are living longer because of improved nutrition, medical advances, hygiene, health care, education and economic progress, he said. Aging, not population growth, is “the most important demographic change of this century,” said Michael Hodin, executive director of the Global Coalition on Aging. Aging is a major challenge for societies and economies because it adds pressure to fiscal revenues and health care expenditures. The number of 80-year-olds, those most closely associated with health problems, rose to more than 150 million this year. That’s more than double what it was 20 years ago. In response to this, many countries began to raise the retirement age from 65 years.
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Without further policy action – from supporting child care to providing health care, the declining share of the working-age population in advanced economies “is expected to slow growth and living standards,” said Shruti Singh, an economist at the Equal Opportunity Center. of the OECD. Hodin added that nations’ health care systems must also focus on early detection and prevention, otherwise “we won’t be able to afford anything.” About 30 percent of Japan’s population is aged 65 and over, while in Europe the figure is 20 percent, double the world average and the highest of any other continent. For Europe and North America, said the UN’s Sara Hertog, all future population growth up to 2050 is likely to occur among the elderly. While still younger overall, developing countries in Latin America and Asia are now aging faster than developed countries.
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The largest increase in the number of people over 65 worldwide between now and 2050 is projected for East and Southeast Asia, accounting for more than a third of the global increase, according to the UN. For Latin America and the Caribbean, the share of the population aged 65 and over could more than double from 9 percent in 2022 to 19 percent in 2050. But some experts said concerns about aging were overblown, in part because of an outdated definition of the elderly. “Most people in their 60s who are educated are very capable of contributing to modern economies,” said Sarah Harper, professor of gerontology at the University of Oxford. Indeed, the death rate — the number of deaths in an age group per 1,000 population in the same age group — of people aged 65 to 69 in 1950 was higher than those aged 75 to 79 today, according to UN data. .
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People are living healthier lives for longer around the world, according to data from the World Health Organization. A growing proportion of older people are working, according to the OECD, even though employment rates in most countries have continued to decline significantly with age since the early 60s. With many people in their 60s working and contributing to the economy and society, “the important factor is good health in later life,” Harper said. “If we can maintain that, then the demographic challenge is reduced.”
