Rishi Sunak wants the country to know he’s thinking of retirees. Flying into the G20 summit in Indonesia, the prime minister took time to tell reporters that pensioners “will always be at the forefront of my mind”. This is a telling comment just days before an autumn statement in which the chancellor is set to cut public spending and raise taxes for everyone. On Sunday, Jeremy Hunt officially announced that he would “ask everyone to make sacrifices” – now Sunak is sending a very strong hint that for the over-65s any sacrifices will be minimal. This suggests that the triple lock on state pensions almost certainly remains. To recap: the triple lock ensures that the state pension increases each year, based on the rate of consumer price index (CPI) inflation, the rate of earnings growth or 2.5 per cent – ​​whichever is higher. This means that pensions continue to grow even when growth is low or non-existent (as it has been for most of the last decade) and are protected when inflation suddenly spikes, as it just did. It was suspended as a one-off last year to avoid the distortion caused by falling wages in the first year of the Covid-19 pandemic and then the recovery, but has otherwise been one of the few constants in British politics. This is great if you are at or nearing retirement age. For the people who actually have to pay for it (taxpayers, mostly those of working age), the bill is staggering. Inflation, lest we forget, is currently 10.1%. Wages only increase by about half, to 5.5%. Increasing the state pension in line with inflation instead of earnings is estimated to add an extra £5bn to the bill. For context, that’s about 10 percent of the total amount of savings and tax increases Hunt is trying to come up with in his statement Thursday. And context is important here. The triple lock has become one of the most beloved totems of the Conservative Party. From the way it’s worded, you’d think it’s been a cornerstone of the UK welfare system forever, instead of being introduced in 2010 (meaning most of those currently on a pension have had to pay far less to fund the retirements of the generations above them). You can also assume that this particular demographic – retirees – is particularly vulnerable. That is certainly the conclusion of Tuesday’s Mirror front page, for example, in which actor Ricky Tomlinson warns “Ax the triple lock… and people will die”. Select and enter your email address

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Tomlinson has a point. Some pensioners are living in absolute poverty and amid a cost of living crisis with energy prices nearly double what they were last winter, it is important to give them the support they need. Again, though, we have to look at the context, because the same could be said for many households, regardless of age. On November 15, the Guardian reported the tragic story of a two-year-old child who died of a respiratory condition caused by mold in an apartment with poor heating and ventilation. Acute poverty costs lives and does not respect retirement age. Around 18 per cent of pensioners were living in poverty in 2019-20, according to the Office for National Statistics, which is lower than the average poverty rate in the general population of 22 per cent. The poverty rate for children, meanwhile, is 31 percent. Content from our partners The triple lock debate rarely acknowledges this. Nor does it acknowledge that, according to research by the Resolution Foundation, the living standards think tank, working households with children have seen their incomes fall by an average of £375 a year thanks to welfare changes since the Tories came to power in 2010. while pensioners have seen theirs rise by £510 a year. There have been hints that, after much wrangling, Sunak and Hunt intend to increase working-age benefits in line with inflation at Thursday’s statement, but the damage has already been done…