Comment Almost every major policy decision former President Donald Trump has made since losing on Election Day 2020 has been a bad one. At first it looked like he might be able to move on, albeit with sadness. But then he decided to take a page out of the third-world dictator’s book and cling to power by any means necessary. When he left the White House, he decided he would take government documents and then decided to resist their return — in a way that now presents perhaps Trump’s most significant legal liability to date. He then decided he was going to try to assert party dominance by endorsing candidates in the most important 2022 races in the country. Most underperformed their fellow Republicans on Tuesday’s ballot and lost winnable races — including some that could make the difference for control of the Senate. And if the GOP does fail, there will be a credible case that Trump has cost his party this chamber for a second straight election. And finally, Trump decided he would use the end of the midterms to focus on his own upcoming presidential announcement, which still appears to be scheduled for Tuesday. Trump is now backed into a corner: It’s extremely bad timing, but if he doesn’t go ahead with it, he’ll look weak and punished. None of this means the GOP won’t nominate Trump again in 2024. He’s stuck with him on a lot, and his adherence to Trumpism has always been more about emotion than pragmatism. But long before this week, Trump’s grip on the party was weakening. An October 2020 NBC News poll found that 54 percent of Republicans identified more as Trump supporters than as supporters of the party. By the eve of Election Day 2022, that had fallen to 30 percent—an all-time low. And it is very likely that it will fall further now. And perhaps most troubling for Trump, who has crushed any Republican who dares challenge him, he doesn’t seem to be doing so well with Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis. Trump’s decision to start going after DeSantis has gone down like a lead balloon in some corners of the party. Again, Trump can either commit to this or appear to back down. Even three months ago, we had DeSantis overtaking Trump as the most likely GOP nominee in 2024. After DeSantis’ re-election and Trump’s very bad day on Tuesday, we feel a lot more confident about that. The path to a credible alternative that can run to actually win the White House is now significantly wider — whether that’s DeSantis or someone else. Below is our latest ranking of the top 10 candidates most likely to be the GOP nominee for president in 2024. As usual, this takes into account both their likelihood of running and their prospects if they do. Honorable Mention: Sen. Marco Rubio (Florida), Sen. Josh Hawley (Mo.), Sen. Rep. Tom Cotton (Ark.); Liz Cheney (Wyo.), Governor of New Hampshire; Chris Sununu, Governor of Arkansas Asa Hutchinson, Governor of South Dakota. Christie L. Noem, Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan, Governor of Texas. Greg Abbott, former New Jersey Governor Chris Christie, Donald Trump Jr. 10. Senator Rick Scott: On the one hand, the 2022 election looks like a major setback for the Florida senator, whose tenure as chairman of the National Republican Senate Committee may soon end without securing a very bankable majority. On the other hand, we just learned that he reportedly dissuaded Scott from a planned challenge to GOP Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell (R-Ky.). That suggests a presidential run may be more on the table than before. And Scott seems rather impatient with where he is. (Previous rank: 8) 9. Mike Pompeo: The former secretary of state kind of, kind of, suggested late Thursday that the party needs to move on from Trumpism — or at least from the constant fixing of Trump’s social media results that has been pervasive since Election Day. “Conservatives get elected when we do,” he tweeted. “Not when we’re just doing railroad tracks on social media. That’s how we can win.” (Previous rank: 9) 8. Nikki Haley: After the January 6, 2021 uprising at the US Capitol, Haley was one of the loudest voices making a realistic case that the party needed to move on from Trump. (Like others, he quickly backtracked.) But even as Trumpism suffered another major setback Tuesday and some in the party argue it’s a lost cause, the former United Nations ambassador was remarkably quiet. He seems to have decided it’s best not to jump in too soon. But if others take the same stance, it is much less likely that the party will make a clean break and rally behind another candidate. (Previous rank: 7) 7. Senator Ted Cruz: Few got the 2022 election as wrong as the Texas senator. In an interview with Fox News published the day before Election Day, he said, “I think this is going to be, not just a red wave, but a red tsunami.” Days earlier, he had ridiculed President Biden for predicting that Democrats would win a Senate seat and could hold the House — both possibilities remain in play. Also worth noting: He blasted Trump for not spending more to help Republicans win. (Previous rank: 6) 6. Lake Kari: This is tough. Had the GOP won as expected on Election Day, the Arizona gubernatorial candidate would have rocketed up this list. Perhaps more than anyone who doesn’t name Trump — and more than DeSandis, we’d argue — she’s giving the crowd exactly what it wants. He continued to embrace Trumpism and electoral denial late into the 2022 campaign, even as many in the party chose a more moderate course. But it may also have cost her: Right now, it’s not clear she’ll actually win her match. If it doesn’t, it’s off this list for obvious reasons. If she does, though, don’t underestimate how well she could play her style in 2024 — or her prospects as Trump’s running mate, if he manages to pick one. (Previous ranking: n/a) 5. This. Tim Scott: While all the focus was on DeSantis’ performance Tuesday, the South Carolina senator quietly scored an even more decisive victory — beating his opponent by 26 points — albeit in a redder state and a race that was never seriously targeted the Democrats. And while celebrating, Scott gave a nod to what’s to come. He talked about going to the polls in 2012 with his grandfather, who voted for both Scott and Barack Obama. “I wish he had lived long enough to see maybe another colored man elected president of the United States,” Scott said. “But this time let him be a Republican.” If Republicans want a steady hand that could be generally accepted by many segments of the electorate, Scott can make a pretty compelling case that he’s the one. (Previous rank: 4) 4. Governor Glenn Youngkin: The Virginia governor moves up slightly on this list, since his 2021 victory in a blue state looks even better now. True, it benefited from more favorable momentum than was present on Tuesday. But landslide victories in 2022 for governors like New Hampshire’s Chris Sununu and Ohio’s Mike DeWine only reinforced the electoral advantage of having someone capable of branding himself as an independent — without necessarily breaking with Trumpism. Meanwhile, Youngkin’s lieutenant governor, Winsome Earle-Sears, on Thursday called Trump a “liability” and said he would not support him in 2024 — apparently prompting Trump to send Youngkin a warning signal. (Earle-Sears was was chosen separately from Youngkin, but this definitely doubles as a nice test balloon without coming from Youngkin’s lips.) (Previous rank: 5) 3. Mike Pence: The former vice president continues to deliver the best lines on Trump. In an article adapted from his new book this week, Pence examined what he says happened before and after the Jan. 6 riot on Capitol Hill. He wrote that, five days later, he became “smitten” with Trump. But he also assured that a president who has virtually no regrets about that day had expressed some things to him. “With genuine sadness in his voice, the president thought, ‘What if we hadn’t held the rally?’ What if they hadn’t gone to the Capitol?’ Pence wrote. “Then he said, ‘It’s too terrible to end up like this.’ To the extent that the GOP actually moves away from Trumpism—again, a major “if”—Pence’s stock rises significantly. But it will take a lot of Trump supporters to forgive him for the sin of not overturning American democracy. (Previous rank: 3) 2. Donald Trump: The former president remains the poll leader, though post-election polls could tell a different story. But he is also the first president since the Great Depression to lose the House, Senate and presidency in a single term. Indeed, it looks more and more like the man who did it last: Herbert Hoover. Democrats continued to champion Hoover even after he left the presidency, turning it into the best midterm for the president’s party in a century. At the very least, Trump is more damaged goods than he has been in the last six years because his reputation as a designated winner has crumbled and he can’t keep his foot off the gas. (Previous rank: 2)
- Governor Ron DeSantis: By contrast, the Florida governor’s stock has never been higher as he emerged from Election Day as perhaps the biggest winner on the GOP side. Among the stats: He defeated Rep. Charlie Crist (D) by nearly 20 points, won the Latino vote handily and became the first GOP gubernatorial candidate to carry Miami-Dade County since Jeb Bush two decades ago. DeSantis had already reached out to Trump. a YouGov poll last month showed DeSantis trailing Trump by nine points in a one-to-one race. And the biggest shoe to drop in the 2024 GOP race is now whatever DeSantis decides to do next. (Previous rank: 1) Florida Gov. Ron DeSantis (D) won a second term on Nov. 8. (Video: The Washington Post)
