If you’re looking for a key to unlocking what happened in the 2022 midterm elections, look no further than the independent vote.
Right now, according to exit polls conducted for CNN and other news networks by Edison Research, 49 percent of independent voters nationally chose Democratic House candidates while 47 percent chose Republicans.
This is a significant change from the last FOUR midterm elections. Take a look at the breakdown of the independent vote from this election:
2018
54% Democrats
42% Republican
(Democrats won 40 seats in Parliament)
2014
54% Republican
42% Democrats
(Republicans won a clean 13 seats in the House)
2010
56% Republican
37% Democrats
(Republicans won 63 seats in the House)
2006
57% Democrats
39% Republican
(Democrats won 30 seats in Parliament)
It is no exaggeration, then, to say that the way the independents follow is decisive in these interim periods. In this election, CNN has yet to do a look at the race for control of the House or Senate with several key races still too early to call.
If you take a step back, the large role independents played isn’t all that surprising.
We live in a uniquely partisan age. US elections have grown to resemble parliamentary elections, with voters tending to choose their group/party over all other considerations.
That certainly happened on Tuesday night. Democrats voted overwhelmingly for Democratic candidates (96%), and Republican voters overwhelmingly voted for Republican candidates (96%). While the electorate was slightly more Republican (36% of the total electorate) than Democratic (33%), those numbers essentially canceled each other out.
Which made the independent vote (31% of the electorate) all the more crucial. And independents were undoubtedly cross-pressured in this election.
President Joe Biden was unpopular with the overall electorate, with only 41% viewing him favorably. But neither was Donald Trump, with 39% viewing him favorably. Abortion was a more important issue than most polls indicated leading up to the race, with 27 percent saying it was the most important issue for their vote. This was second only to inflation (31%).
Looking ahead, a focus on independents is likely to be critical. In the 2020 presidential race, Biden carried independents by a margin of 54% to 41% – and won. In 2016, Trump carried independents by six points – and won.
It’s no accident. With partisanship at an all-time high, the number of persuasive voters who are not affiliated with any party is very small. Although this bloc may be smaller, it is powerful when it comes to determining who will actually win the election.
