Comment Russia’s expected military withdrawal from the southern city of Kherson opens the door to more advances on the Ukrainian battlefield, U.S. and Ukrainian officials said, but significant gains beyond that are unlikely to come soon as winter ends and both sides reinforce combat units with additional weapons and ammunition and personnel. The assessments came amid indications that Moscow’s forces were following Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu’s order on Tuesday to withdraw to the southeast across the Dnieper River in a bid to maintain their strength. The decision left open the possibility that Ukrainian troops could enter the city – home to nearly 300,000 people before Russia invaded in February – within days, said Roman Kostenko, a Ukrainian army colonel and member of parliament. “We see all these signs – blowing up bridges, leaving the villages, heading for the Dnieper River,” Kostenko said. “We see that they are retreating.” The moves confused a battlefield picture that was already chaotic after nine months of fighting. Some officials in Kyiv have questioned whether Russia’s announcement is a trap intended to draw out Ukrainian forces. It also remained unclear Wednesday whether some Russian forces could be blocked on the western side of the river, depending on how quickly Ukrainian troops advance. ‘Well over’ 100,000 Russian troops killed or wounded in Ukraine, US says U.S. officials said Moscow made the decision to avoid a repeat of its chaotic, bloody failure in the Kharkiv region, in which Ukrainian forces broke through Russian front lines in September, capturing hundreds of square miles and massive amounts of Russian military equipment that had abandoned hastily. This time, it appears that the Russian retreat is strategic—preemptively retreating to safer positions and preparing for future combat. “Russia realized that it would be better to have an early withdrawal than to be overwhelmed by the Ukrainians and suffer massive casualties,” said Jim Stavridis, a retired US Navy admiral and former top NATO allied commander. “The Ukrainians will not stop until they completely retake the city — nor should they. It has enormous geographical, military and psychological value.” The recapture of Kherson, with Ukraine raising its blue-and-yellow flag over a city captured by Russian forces in March, will mark the latest major battlefield setback for the Kremlin in Ukraine. Hawks Russian military bloggers have complained about the retreat, calling it a betrayal. Stavridis predicted that Ukraine could seize an “unexpected” Russian military equipment and perhaps reveal additional evidence of Russian war crimes, “including what has become the modus operandi of rape, torture, detention and mass murder.” In the Mykolaiv region, northwest of Kherson, a Ukrainian medic, Ivan Malenkyi, said Wednesday that his unit was already clearing landmines planted there by Russian forces, in a possible preview of what might await Ukrainian troops in Kherson. “Now we don’t understand ourselves what the first line is, the second line or whatever,” Malenkyi said. “We just know they’re gone. Where they went and what they left behind is not clear.” What you need to know about Russia’s withdrawal from the city of Kherson U.S. Army Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, said Tuesday night that 20,000 to 30,000 Russian forces remained on the west bank of the river and that it would take time to withdraw. But he too saw “initial indicators” that the retreat was underway, he said. “This won’t even take them a day or two,” Milley said, speaking at an event at the Economic Club of New York. “That will take them days and maybe even weeks to pull those forces south of that river.” Ukrainian forces have been slowly advancing toward Kherson for weeks, targeting ammunition centers, command posts and supply facilities in the area and putting pressure on Russian forces, said Yuriy Sak, an adviser to the Ukrainian Defense Ministry. “It’s literally no longer possible for them to stay in Kherson because they can’t provide ammunition to their army, provide supplies,” Shak said in an interview. “It is no longer possible for them to continue fighting.” Despite exuberant troops posting videos on social media and selfies of captured villages, Ukrainian military commanders are reluctant to broadcast their next moves. “Winter will be a factor,” Sack said. “It could be slower, it could be faster depending on the weather. But we’re not going to stop. We will continue our counterattack measure by measure, village by village.” Retreating Russian forces are laying mines and blowing up bridges as they withdraw from the city of Kherson, and there is concern that some troops may be hiding in the city, waiting to spring a trap, Ukrainian officials said. The advancing Ukrainian soldiers will also be within range of Russian artillery on the opposite bank of the river. But a complete retreat from the city of Kherson is now considered inevitable. Ukrainian forces have targeted Russian supply lines and choked Moscow’s ability to support frontline troops. “The Russians can certainly set up some traps in Kherson still, but they never had enough troops or logistics to hold those positions on the right bank,” said another Ukrainian government adviser who was not authorized to speak to the press, commenting condition. of anonymity. Before Shoigu’s announcement, a NATO official said Russian troops were in a “difficult situation” in Kherson, with only one supply line to the east. The official, speaking on condition of anonymity to share an analysis of the unfolding situation, said that while Russian officials had called for the evacuation of civilians from the city and pulled more experienced troops east across the river, the troops that mobilized more recently had been sent to the city, leaving the total number of Russian forces there unchanged. NATO officials do not understand why the Russian military made this decision, the official said. But just as the Dnieper River presented an obstacle for the Russians to resupply troops, Ukraine cannot easily be expected to push east and south toward Crimea from there. Instead, outside observers and Ukrainian officials said Kyiv is likely to focus on interdicting remaining Russian supply lines from the Crimean peninsula, which Russia seized from Ukraine in 2014, and then shift forces to contest other occupied territories . “We have no geographical opportunity to liberate Crimea soon,” said the second Ukrainian adviser. “We have to liberate all of southern Ukraine first, and we’re not going to do it from the right bank of the river. Now we have a theater on the left bank and all the activity will be on the left bank.” Mick Ryan, a retired Australian general who followed the war closely, said Ukrainian forces crossing the Dnieper would be a major undertaking and that the Russian military would inflict significant casualties on them if they did. “I don’t see it in the short term,” said Ryan, who visited Ukrainian officials in Kyiv last month. “The Ukrainians are likely to look to other axes of advance to clear the south.” Ryan said Ukraine’s recapture of the city of Kherson is “not a game-changer” in its goal of retaking Crimea, but it is a “step closer.” Seizing other parts of Kherson region and neighboring Zaporizhzhia, to the east, should come first, he said. “This will be a methodical and deliberate sequence of battles and campaigns in the south that should culminate in a campaign for the Crimea,” Ryan said. Ben Hodges, the former commander of US military Europe, also predicted that Ukrainian commanders may soon make a push into Zaporizhia, home to a nuclear plant seized by Russian troops. Sabotaging access to electricity ahead of the harsh winter was a key strategy for Moscow, Hodges said, and regaining control could be a priority. Hodges said there were reports of Russian commanders exchanging battle-hardened troops with newly mobilized troops in the south as Moscow bolsters defense lines across the river. While it makes sense to force Ukraine to cross the river to advance, poorly trained and equipped conscripts could struggle to do so, he said. Hodges predicted that Ukraine might be able to retake Crimea by the end of next summer. But that mission would be easier with long-range artillery that the United States has so far withheld from Ukraine, he said. The United States provided rocket artillery with a range of about 50 miles, making Crimea still far from Kherson, Hodges said. For months, Kyiv has been asking for U.S. missiles with a range of nearly 200 miles, known as the Military Tactical Missile System, that could reach Russian military targets on the peninsula, but the Biden administration has refused to send them, seeing it as an escalation that could provoke Moscow. The winter months could bring additional difficulties on the battlefield. As the temperature drops and the war becomes more of a test of endurance and will, units with personnel and morale problems may see these issues worsen. “I would hate to be a Russian soldier sitting in a trench in southern Ukraine,” Hodges said. “This is another example of carriers changing over time.” Ill-disciplined soldiers may struggle to withstand a guard freeze, leaving security gaps for Ukrainian forces to exploit, said Rob Lee, an expert on the Russian military and senior fellow at the Institute for Foreign Policy Research. Another challenge for both sides will be limiting how much the cold reveals their positions. Vehicles and people generate thermal energy detectable by infrared rays that are hand-carried by soldiers and mounted on some drones and vehicles. Winter will also reduce the amount of concealment, with leafless trees…
