It’s worse without him, clearly. “It’s a tough loss for us. He’s a very important player for a lot of reasons,” Leafs coach Sheldon Keefe said after the news of Muzzin’s indefinite absence was officially announced. Muzzin will be out for at least the next three and a half months with a cervical spine injury and likely the rest of the season. Which makes it imperative that the Leafs somehow find his replacement. The timeline for even the possibility of Muzzin’s return pretty much ensures that. It won’t be easy. Defenders of Muzzin’s caliber, with his particular dynamic, defensive style of play, are hard to come by — and come at a high cost. (To acquire Muzzin in the first place, the Leafs parted with a first-round pick, a top prospect in Sean Durzi, who has since become a strong defenseman, and an NHL forward in Carl Grundstrom.) But the Leafs will have to try. What they have internally without Muzzin is not enough, not for a team trying to win the Stanley Cup. And as Leafs GM Kyle Dubas noted Monday afternoon, it’s very unclear whether Muzzin will be able to return at all this season. “If we had any experience with this kind of thing,” Dubas said, referring to Muzzin’s neck injury, which came from a hit by Arizona’s Clayton Keller last month, “I would stand up and give a straight answer. But because of the nature of the injury and because we really don’t have a lot of experience with this type of injury and you rely more on other sports that don’t exactly replicate hockey, it’s hard to predict.” As Dubas noted, this is Muzzin’s second “remarkable incident” of its kind. There was the scary scene in Game 2 of the 2020 playoff series against Columbus when Muzzin had to come off the ice along with the more recent collision with Keller. Muzzin also had a long history with back problems and suffered a pair of concussions last season. His body has been through a lot. (John E. Sokolowski / USA Today) “It’s not something I think you really want to mess with,” Dubas said. “We have to do what’s right for his long-term health. He is a father of two young children and a husband. We have to make sure we do him right. As important as he is to us as a player, his health is paramount.” Muzzin showed in last year’s first round series against Tampa what makes him so special and unique to the Leafs. His most frequent offensive opponent in the seven-game series was Lightning superstar Nikita Kucherov. In those 42 minutes, the Leafs were essentially even in shot clock (21-22) and scoring (1-1). This is what neutralization looks like. With a hand from TJ Brodie, Muzzin made Tampa’s top players work. He made going to the net difficult with that big 6-foot-6, 230-plus pound frame. He was physical, racking up 25 hits in the seven-game streak. Blocks 16 shots as well. Muzzin is the only Leaf defenseman with that particular skill set — big and burly and perfect for playoff hockey. That’s why the Leafs decided not to spend his long-term injured reserve money last season amid these concussions, and risk not having him around for that season — an option that almost certainly won’t have this season. (More on that in a second.) Muzzin is also extremely valuable off the ice. “His experience and his voice in the room and in the games, that’s another area you take him out and other people now have to say more, deal with different situations,” Keefe said earlier this month. Muzzin can still help with the intangibles. He stayed with the team for the last month and participated in some meetings. But the Leafs miss his presence on the bench and in the locker room. Keefe can put together a perfectly decent top six without Muzzin, something like this when Brodie returns from an oblique injury in a few weeks: Rielly – BrodieGiordano – HollSandin – Liljegren A team like this might be able to win a round. Not four. The Leafs have been reluctant to highlight Mark Giordano — and with good reason. He’s not just the oldest defenseman in the league, he’s the oldest player in the league, period, at 39. It’s too much to ask him to tango every other night in the postseason at this point in his career. Justin Hall has played his best in recent years after a rough start to the season. But ideally, he’s not asked to duel elite talent every night in the playoffs. Hall is best suited in a third-pair role, with significant penalty-killing responsibilities. (This is another area where the Leafs will miss Muzzin.) He had success doing just that on a third pairing with Giordano last spring. Then there’s Rasmus Sandin and Timothy Lilliegren. When asked about trade possibilities in the wake of the Muzzin news, Dubas pointed to the two young defensemen and the expectation that both would take on increased responsibility in the coming weeks and months. The first step in managing without Muzzin indefinitely, Dubas said, was to see “how much (Sandin and Liljegren) can last and if they can, with the increased opportunities, continue to elevate as everyone does in corresponding start to his career with us.” “The second step,” he continued, “would then be to determine, even if they do elevate, whether it’s going to be enough to help us actually achieve what we want to achieve, and then evaluate the commercial market and go from there ». That’s the key right there. The truth is, even the best possible versions of Sandin and Liljegren, especially at this age, don’t fill Muzzin’s void. It’s not even close. We already know that. Sandin’s opportunity came up briefly after Muzzin was initially injured against Arizona. It quickly became clear that the responsibility of the top four, along with Hall in particular, was too much to handle. As a result, the Leafs rearranged their pairings. Liljegren dropped to the top pair immediately after returning from hernia surgery earlier this month. Over the weekend, he was replaced by veteran Jordie Benn, who will remain alongside Morgan Rielly for the time being at No. 1 doubles. Liljegren will hang with close friend Sandin in the third pairing. In other words, even without Muzzin and Brodie, the Leafs will keep things light for Sandin and Liljegren. The Leafs don’t have the ingredients to create an ideal shutdown pairing — for the playoffs — without Muzzin or an outside alternative. A Brodie-Holl combination is probably the best possible internal solution, but that leaves Rielly without an ideal partner – again, it’s asking a lot of Holl. A replacement for Muzzin should solve that problem, whether he’s playing Rielly, Brodie, or even if it’s not ideal, Holl. The Leafs will need to find someone better than Holl and Giordano and more ready for top line battles than Sandin and Liljegren. Someone who can survive in elite waters in a playoff series — multiple playoff series. Muzzin’s timeline virtually ensures that they will have to act. It will not be reassessed until late February. In other words, the Leafs won’t know if there’s even a possibility of his return until the days before the March 3 trade deadline. That means, unlike last season, Dubas won’t really have a choice when it comes to spending Muzzin’s cap. The Leafs cannot afford to leave such an important roster spot to chance. They have no choice but to operate under the assumption that Muzzin won’t return — which puts even more doubt on Muzzin’s return this season. If they spent the LTI money, Muzzin (barring other injuries) wouldn’t be able to return until the playoffs. And the odds of Muzzin missing nearly the entire regular season only to return for postseason action are virtually nil. It will take some serious cleaning to find the right one that can be done. If the Washington Capitals fall out of playoff contention, would they be willing to move on from hard-nosed Dmitry Orlov? He’s headed for free agency next summer, with a $5.1 million cap hit, and fits the prototype of what the Leafs need to replace Muzzin. So does Senators defenseman Artem Zub. He’s injured right now, but has only made $2.5 million and is set to hit unrestricted next summer if Ottawa doesn’t sign him first. Is Islanders behemoth Scott Mayfield enough of an upgrade on Holl? She would pair nicely with Rielly. So can Chicago’s Connor Murphy, another giant right-shot defenseman signed for this season and three after that ($4.4 million cap hit). The Leafs would certainly prefer whoever they acquire to replace Muzzin to have a clause in their contract, but given the stakes of the season, they may not have the luxury of being so picky. Muzzin being on long-term injured reserve means the Leafs have the cap space to go get someone. The other part of the equation: What do they have to trade? Will Dubas be free to take another first round pick? Would he part ways with one of Sandin or Liljegren (perhaps as part of a package) if his team had a serious upgrade — with a clause in their deal? Would he move Nick Robertson? The news that Muzzin may not return this season is not unexpected. But it does everything but ensure the Leafs have to do something to replace him. (Top photo by Kevin Sousa / NHLI via Getty Images) Stats and research courtesy of Natural Stat Trick, Evolving Hockey and Cap Friendly
