Comment RIGA, Latvia — Ukrainian forces raising their flag in the central city of Kherson on Friday confirmed Russian President Vladimir Putin’s most consequential political and military defeat in his ill-fated 8.5-month war. Kherson was the only regional capital in Ukraine that Russian forces had managed to capture since the invasion began on February 24, and ceding the city to Kyiv shattered the illusion of control that Putin had tried to create by holding referendums and illegally declaring Kherson and three other regions — Luhansk, Donetsk, and Zaporizhia — to be annexed and absorbed into Russia. Although Russian forces still control the wider Kherson region, part of Putin’s coveted “land bridge” from mainland Russia to illegally annexed Crimea, the fall of the capital is a stunning blow after repeated, vociferous statements by figures which support the Kremlin that Russia will remain in Kherson “forever”. Moscow’s hardline pro-war faction, including nationalist military bloggers, called the city’s handover a “treason” and a “black day”. Kherson, along with the other illegally annexed regions, was written into the Russian constitution as part of Russia after parliament confirmed Putin’s annexation plans. Kherson’s flag, along with those of the three other regions, was recently raised during a ceremony at the State Duma. While other leaders may suffer severe repercussions, the Kremlin has for weeks been carefully preparing the Russian population for the shock, removing Putin from responsibility and trying to insulate him from the political fallout. But there were signs that Putin would not completely escape responsibility and that the loss of Kherson could stoke opposition to the war, which has slowly grown amid repeated battlefield setbacks. “I think this will seriously complicate the way the situation is dealt with inside the country,” said a powerful Moscow businessman, who declined to be named because of possible repercussions in a paranoid, increasingly totalitarian state. “It’s a serious loss.” “For Russia, these losses have a sacred character,” the businessman added. “It’s a big blow to Putin’s image.” The retreat from the city of Kherson was the latest in a series of military setbacks for Putin, including Russia’s failed attempt to capture Kyiv, the Ukrainian capital, early in the war and Ukraine’s blitzkrieg of Russian forces from the northeast Kharkiv region in September. The territorial losses in Kharkiv led Putin to declare a disorderly conscription drive that prompted hundreds of thousands of men to flee Russia and sent tens of thousands of poorly trained troops to fight in Ukraine. Many ordinary Russians still see Putin as an intelligent, tsar-like figure who loves his country but is constantly frustrated by aggressive, incompetent officials, according to analysts, who said the Kremlin’s propaganda efforts had seemingly worked to minimize public concerns about Kherson. tradition. Ukrainian security officers are hunting the enemy within: “agents” for Russia But the many military failures in an unnecessary war are obvious to Moscow’s elite billionaires and state officials. Equally clear are the political difficulties created by Putin’s annexations, a flagrant violation of international law now exposed as a delusion. Amid military retreats, strained mobilization, intensifying economic difficulties and mounting casualties, Moscow has increasingly signaled its readiness for talks with Ukraine. But negotiations are unlikely, with Putin sticking to his position that Kyiv must accept its illegal land seizures. Putin stayed away on Wednesday as Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu and the top commander of the Russian military in Ukraine, Colonel Sergei Surovykin, engaged in an awkward, robotic dialogue on state-run Russia 24 television, formalizing the decision to leave Kherson “to save lives.” ». As Shoigu approved the handover, Putin visited the federal center of brain and neuron technologies to mark the 75th anniversary of the Federal Medical-Biological Service. It was unclear whether the Russian president was completely out of touch or deliberately excluded himself from the military decision. Former Kremlin adviser Sergei Markov, speaking in an interview, described the surrender of Kherson as “Russia’s biggest geopolitical defeat since the collapse of the USSR,” noting Putin’s personal guarantee that the territory would always be part of Russia. “This is, of course, a huge blow to the mood of the population,” Markov said. “It’s a huge blow to the military – to their fighting spirit. It’s a blow to respect for President Putin and a blow to optimism.” . Putin, however, remains protected by his security team and military leaders and has shown no outward signs of a change of course. In the bloody battle for Bahamut, Russian mercenaries eye a symbolic prize Political analyst Andrei Kolesnikov of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace recently compared Putin’s increasingly closed, paranoid behavior to Stalin in his later years, where “all decisions are made by one person.” But despite hard-liners’ anger at Kherson’s surrender, Kolesnikov said ordinary Russians seemed convinced, at least for now, by the military’s explanation that the surrender was necessary to save lives. Putin’s approval rating was “fairly stable,” he said, falling to 77 percent from 83 percent during September’s fractious mobilisation, before rising to 79 percent last month. A Russian government official said the decision to hand over Kherson “means there is still rational thinking in the administration. If the president is part of that, then there is hope, albeit the ghost of an opportunity, that he is open to talks.” But the state official added that he did not believe Putin would not accept Ukraine’s terms of fully withdrawing Russian forces from Ukraine or even retreating to pre-war lines, because that would be a “massive political blow” that might not survive. Many members of the elite are privately critical of Putin’s destructive war and subsequent sanctions, underscoring the rift between Russia’s hardline pro-war faction and business executives and bureaucrats desperate for an end to global ostracism. The businessman said Moscow was banking on Ukrainian resistance collapsing in the winter due to missile strikes on Ukrainian civilian energy facilities, although there is no evidence that this will happen. Another prominent Russian businessman said he believed the Biden administration was pressuring Ukraine to start negotiations, citing comments Wednesday night by Gen. Mark A. Milley, chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, that winter presents “a window of opportunity” for the sides. to start conversations. Western officials, however, said it was Kiev’s decision. Russians were war-weary, the second businessman said, and Putin’s position was “on the brink of collapse.” “From a military point of view, there are a lot of dead bodies. I think he is ready for some kind of deal,” the second businessman said, adding that Putin probably realized that a decisive military victory was impossible. The risks are mounting for Putin, he said. “If he loses more ground, it would be an absolute shame for him. It would be the end for him personally. It would be the end for him politically as well.” Putin ally brags he ‘interfered’ in US midterm elections Analyst Tatiana Stanovaya, founder of political analysis group R. Politik, said the feeling of betrayal among Russia’s “war party” is not a threat to Putin, who remains convinced Ukraine will lose Western support next year, forcing Kyiv to capitulate. its terms. Stanovaya said Putin simply wanted to buy time until Western support for Ukraine dissipated, while Kolesnikov dismissed Putin’s messages that he was ready to negotiate as “pure PR”, with the sides too far apart. Stanovaya said Putin did not expect Russia to win the war by military means, but he sees Ukraine as a non-state that would eventually collapse. The liberation of the city of Kherson sparked speculation about how much further Ukraine’s army could advance before winter. Kiev forces are also making some gains in the east. Markov, a former Kremlin adviser, said Putin would try to hold on to the remaining annexed territories once the Russian military is reinforced with trained forces in the coming months. But it was not clear that Russia could arm them with the necessary weapons, he said. “If he finds out that the Russian economy cannot provide these troops with military technology, then he will be forced to start negotiations for peace,” Markov said, adding that Putin may even be forced to retreat to the positions that Russia held before since February. 24 invasion. This includes the regional capitals of Luhansk and Donetsk, which Russian-backed separatists have controlled since 2014. “Withdrawal to the February 24 line will be considered a serious loss but not a capitulation,” he said. “It would be a very difficult situation. But it is possible.” Dixon reported from Riga, Latvia and Belton from London.
