Democrats have already won control of the Senate, securing 50 seats with a runoff in Georgia next month that could give President Joe Biden’s party an extra seat. The GOP came into the election needing to win a net of just five seats for control of the House. Nearly a week after the midterm elections, Republicans were closing in on a majority, giving conservatives leverage to soften Biden’s agenda and trigger a wave of investigations. But a small numerical advantage will pose immediate challenges to GOP leaders and complicate the party’s ability to govern. The full extent of the party’s majority may not be clear for several more days — or weeks — as votes in competitive races are still being counted. However, the party was on track to hit 218 with seats in California and other states still too early to call. However, even getting just 218 means the Republicans will likely have the narrowest majority of the 21st century. He could compete in 2001, when Republicans held just a nine-seat majority, 221-212 with two independents. That’s a far cry from the sweeping victory Republicans predicted in this year’s midterm elections, when the party hoped to reset the agenda on Capitol Hill by capitalizing on economic challenges and Biden’s lagging popularity. Instead, Democrats managed to largely dampen the GOP’s expected big election, holding moderate, suburban areas from Virginia to Minnesota and Kansas. The results could complicate House GOP Leader Kevin McCarthy’s plans to become speaker, as some conservative members have questioned whether to support him or have placed conditions on their support. Narrow margins have upended Republican politics and led to finger-pointing about what went wrong. Some in the GOP have blamed Donald Trump for the worse-than-expected result. The former president, who is expected to announce a third White House bid on Tuesday, singled out candidates during this year’s primaries who struggled to win during the general election. Despite its overwhelming showing, the GOP will continue to see its power in Washington grow. Republicans will take control of House committees, allowing them to craft legislation and launch investigations into Biden, his family and his administration. There is particular interest in the investigation into the business dealings of the president’s son Hunter Biden. Some of the more conservative lawmakers have raised the prospect of impeaching Biden, though that will be much more difficult for the party to achieve with a narrow majority. Any legislation that emerges from the House could face major setbacks in the Senate, where a narrow Democratic majority will often be enough to derail legislation advanced by the GOP. With such a slim majority in the House, there is the potential for legislative chaos. The dynamic essentially gives a single member enormous influence in shaping what happens in the chamber. That could lead to particularly difficult conditions for GOP leaders as they try to win support for must-pass measures that keep the government funded or raise the debt ceiling. The GOP’s failure to make more gains was particularly surprising because the party went into the election benefiting from congressional maps redrawn by Republican legislatures. History was also on the side of the Republicans: The party that holds the White House had lost seats in Congress during almost every new president’s first midterm in the modern era. If elected to succeed House Speaker Nancy Pelosi in the top job, McCarthy will lead a raucous conference of House Republicans, most of whom are aligned with Trump’s brand of politics. Many Republicans in the incoming Congress have dismissed the results of the 2020 presidential election, even as allegations of widespread fraud have been dismissed by courts, election officials and Trump’s own attorney general. In the first national election since the January 6 riot, a Republican who was outside the Capitol the day of the mob attack, Derrick Van Orden, won a seat in the House. He won a long-held Democratic seat in Wisconsin. Republican candidates pledged on the campaign trail to cut taxes and strengthen border security. GOP lawmakers could also halt aid to Ukraine as it wages war with Russia, or use the threat of the nation’s debt default as leverage to extract cuts to social spending and entitlements — though all of those pursuits would be tougher given how small the GOP majority can end up being. As a senator and then vice president, Biden spent a career brokering legislative compromises with Republicans. But as president, he was clear about the threats he saw from today’s Republican Party. Biden said the midterm elections show that voters want Democrats and Republicans to find ways to work together and govern in a bipartisan way, but he also noted that Republicans have not achieved the electoral surge they had bet on and promised: “You’re not going to change anything in any fundamental way.” The president was also blunt in his assessment of his party’s dwindling chances, saying on the House floor Monday: “I think it’s going to be very close, but I don’t think we’re going to make it.”
