The opposition Five Star led to a populist explosion in the 2018 elections, provoking disgruntled Italians with rhetoric against the political elites and EU bureaucrats in Brussels. But after four years in power, the party has bled back and split over its stance on the Ukraine war. Foreign Minister Luigi Di Maio, one of the most prominent figures in the Five Stars, is firmly behind Draghi’s steadfast support for Kyiv and supports arms supplies, according to the US and the EU. But party leader Giuseppe Conte, who preceded Draghi as prime minister, has been critical, arguing that Ukraine’s armaments are only prolonging the conflict. Tensions escalated Tuesday night as Di Maio said he was stepping down from the Five Stars – and taking with him at least 60 of his 227 lawmakers – to form a new pro-government parliamentary group that would remain part of the ruling coalition. Although the Five Star split does not have a direct impact on the stability of the Draghi government, there is speculation that Conte could eventually move to pull his party’s most radical wing out of the ruling coalition. The Five Stars “had a duty to support the government without ambiguity,” Di Maio told a news conference late at night, after a day of intense speculation about his impending retirement. “In this historical context, upholding European and Atlantic values can not be considered a mistake.” The explosion of the Five Stars underscores the way in which the war in Ukraine upsets politics in Italy, which has traditionally maintained warm ties with Russia, has strong pacifist tendencies – actively encouraged by the Catholic Church – and is historically suspicious of Washington’s role on the international stage. Since the Russian invasion in late February, Draghi, the former chairman of the European Central Bank who was appointed prime minister amid a political crisis last year, has overturned Italian foreign policy, showing little sympathy for Moscow and pushing the EU for stronger co-operation. coordinated action in support of Ukraine. But as the conflict continues, Draghi’s hard-line approach is becoming an increasingly acute internal issue for the parties in his hard-line ruling coalition, especially as the reversal economic consequences hit Italian households and next year’s general election looms large. “Public opinion is not the same as that of the government,” said Daniele Albertazzi, a professor of politics at the University of Surrey. “Most of the public is not in favor of Putin and Russia, but they are very skeptical of NATO’s motives and the extent to which they can inflame and aggravate the situation.” Luigi Scazzieri, a senior fellow at the Center for European Reform, said the war seemed ready to emerge as the prism through which other internal political disputes would be examined as next year’s general elections approach. “War is turning into this all-encompassing phenomenon that has all these consequences in terms of energy, food security, immigration and the economic downturn,” he said. “It is becoming a very big issue that has divisions both within the parties and between them.” Five Star’s popularity had eroded sharply in recent years as he struggled to grow from a protest movement to a ruling party. Polls show he now favors less than 15 percent of the electorate – down from almost 33 percent in 2018 – and has lost control of many key city governments in local elections. But Alessandro Marrone, director of the defense program at the Rome-based Institute for International Affairs, said the war in Ukraine had put new pressure on a movement full of activists influenced by Italy’s pacifist, anti-American tradition. “Five Star has become more and more mainstream over the last four years, with a more European and pro-Atlantic stance, but one component remains skeptical about it,” he said. The Five Stars are not the only populist group in Draghi’s coalition now feeling the heat. Matteo Salvini’s right-wing Lega – which had official ties to the United Russia Party allied with Russian President Vladimir Putin – is also struggling, with recent polls showing it favored by less than 15 percent of voters, up from 30 percent. Two years ago. The suffering of the Five Stars and the League benefits the brothers of Italy’s Georgia Meloni, who has her roots in post-fascist politics and is the only party in parliament that has not joined Draghi’s coalition. Her poll scores have risen from single digits two years ago to more than 22 percent now. While Salvini is widely expected to run in next year’s election in an alliance with Meloni’s party, the future direction of the Five Stars is unclear. “The Five Star is disintegrating,” Albertazzi said. “They do not know where they are going, they do not know who they want to be. “The electorate can see it – and step by step, they are disappearing.”
