I am a professor of space studies who teaches courses in space law and history. One lesson I learned is that as successful as the US and other nations have been in launching rockets into space over the past few decades, a huge number of launches are delayed due to weather or safety concerns. Of NASA’s 135 Space Shuttle missions, only about 40% launched on time. While Artemis 1 continues NASA’s long tradition of delayed launches, there are good reasons for the high level of attention underlying these delays. But as private space launch activity continues to grow, the odds of witnessing a timely launch are slowly improving.

Latencies, friction and security

Launches that do not take place on time are classified as either postponements, purges or delays. Postponements refer to moving a planned start date to a later date. Scrubs are when a mission is interrupted on the day it is supposed to launch and rescheduled for a later date. Grinding is usually a last-minute decision caused by bad weather or mechanical problems that raise safety concerns. A delay is when a launch is later in the day than originally planned, but happens on the same day. The ill-fated launch of the space shuttle Challenger in January 1986 experienced all of these problems. First, the mission experienced two delays for a total of three days to accommodate the landing of Space Shuttle Columbia. The launch was also scrubbed twice due to weather and technical issues, and eventually the mission experienced two delays on the day of the actual launch. Unfortunately, the shuttle and the astronauts on board perished in an explosion 74 seconds after launch.
This first launch of Artemis was met with delays and attrition, but part of the reason there were such long gaps between launch attempts is due to the concept of launch windows. Due to the rotation of the Earth and the position of the Moon, launching a rocket at certain times requires significantly less fuel than launching at other times. If a launch misses its window, you usually can’t just launch it again the next day. While Artemis 1’s repeated delays and scrubs are heartbreaking, these delays are for good reason. NASA wants to ensure a safe and successful mission. The Artemis 1 launch scheduled for September 3, 2022, was scrubbed after the team detected a hydrogen leak while fueling the rocket on the launch pad.

A safety culture

Postponements, scraps and delays tend to occur due to bad weather, mechanical problems or concerns about the health of the crew – any of which could threaten the safety of the vessel and passengers. NASA has learned the hard way to be cautious in these scenarios. The first lesson came in January 1967, during a test for the Apollo 1 mission. The rocket in question was intended to perform an early test flight for the first US missions to the Moon. Astronauts Ed White, Roger Chaffee and Gus Grissom were killed when a fire broke out in the crew cabin during a launch pad test. After the tragedy, NASA created the Office of Flight Safety. Most of NASA’s launches went well after the Challenger disaster. But the breakup of the space shuttle Columbia after entering Earth’s atmosphere in February 2003 was a notable exception, killing all seven astronauts on board. This disaster in particular caused NASA to halt operations and take stock of launch strategies. In a truly scathing report from an internal investigation, NASA highlighted its own “broken safety culture” and failure to learn from the mistakes of the Challenger disaster. In the intervening years, NASA has demonstrated a concerted effort to learn from past mistakes. Not surprisingly, it will delay launches if there is a need to check the safety of the craft or crew.
NASA’s Space Launch System in the distance and a SpaceX Falcon9 in the foreground represent two sides of modern spaceflight: a large, long-term project and a small, efficient, reusable workhorse. NASA/Joel Kowsky

Space launches are becoming more frequent every year. This increase is mainly due to the rise of private space companies such as SpaceX that serve as re-suppliers for the International Space Station and carry satellites into orbit. All signs indicate that the upward trend in launches will continue. Unlike government agencies, private launch companies have a strong profit motive to launch often. While concrete data on private industry launch schedules is hard to come by, it appears that, more often than not, SpaceX’s launches, for example, launch on time. That may be because the Falcon9 rocket’s high volume of launches — around 50 this year alone — has given the company’s engineers plenty of time to work out mechanical problems. While other companies trail SpaceX in volume, they are catching up. Blue Origin, for example, completed its 22nd space mission in August 2022, carrying six passengers. Despite their general success, private companies are not immune to technical issues, weather or health issues that can lead to postponements, cleanups or delays. In early October 2022, SpaceX canceled the launch of one of its Falcon9 rockets to allow for additional vehicle inspections. SpaceX also postponed a launch due to the same hurricane that pushed Artemis back. And in 2021, a launch was delayed when a medical issue arose with one of NASA’s astronauts en route to the International Space Station. As more rockets are lined up for both government and private needs, launch delays and misses will continue to be a reality for anyone launching rockets into space. The feeling of tension, frustration and excitement I feel when I wait to see that brilliant flash of ignition and a rocket heading for the heavens is a feeling that many have endured. During the long delay for the Freedom 7 Mercury mission in 1961, astronaut Alan Sheppard was strapped into his capsule with little to do but wait several hours. He finally got fed up and told NASA to “fix your little problem and light that candle.” After a while, NASA gave the green light and Sheppard became the first American to fly into space.

title: “The Artemis Launch Delay Is The Latest Of Many Nasa Scrubs And Comes From Hard Lessons In Crew Safety " ShowToc: true date: “2022-12-10” author: “Charles Favors”

I love a good space launch, and I’ve been eagerly awaiting NASA’s powerful new Space Launch System rocket to lift off as the first part of NASA’s ambitious Artemis mission to return US astronauts to the Moon. But that launch has already been pushed back four times this year — twice because of technical problems and once because of a tropical storm and a hurricane. I am a professor of space studies who teaches courses in space law and history. One lesson I learned is that as successful as the US and other nations have been in launching rockets into space over the past few decades, a huge number of launches are delayed due to weather or safety concerns. Of NASA’s 135 Space Shuttle missions, only about 40% launched on time. While Artemis 1 continues NASA’s long tradition of delayed launches, there are good reasons for the high level of attention underlying these delays. But as private space launch activity continues to grow, the odds of witnessing a timely launch are slowly improving. Latencies, friction and security Launches that do not take place on time are classified as either postponements, purges or delays. Postponements refer to moving a planned start date to a later date. Scrubs are when a mission is interrupted on the day it is supposed to launch and rescheduled for a later date. Grinding is usually a last-minute decision caused by bad weather or mechanical problems that raise safety concerns. A delay is when a launch is later in the day than originally planned, but happens on the same day. The ill-fated launch of the space shuttle Challenger in January 1986 experienced all of these problems. First, the mission experienced two delays for a total of three days to accommodate the landing of Space Shuttle Columbia. The launch was also scrubbed twice due to weather and technical issues, and eventually the mission experienced two delays on the day of the actual launch. Unfortunately, the shuttle and the astronauts on board perished in an explosion 74 seconds after launch.
The Artemis 1 launch scheduled for September 3, 2022, was scrubbed after the team detected a hydrogen leak while fueling the rocket on the launch pad. This first launch of Artemis was met with delays and attrition, but part of the reason there were such long gaps between launch attempts is due to the concept of launch windows. Due to the rotation of the Earth and the position of the Moon, launching a rocket at certain times requires significantly less fuel than launching at other times. If a launch misses its window, you usually can’t just launch it again the next day. While Artemis 1’s repeated delays and scrubs are heartbreaking, these delays are for good reason. NASA wants to ensure a safe and successful mission. A safety culture Postponements, scraps and delays tend to occur due to bad weather, mechanical problems or concerns about the health of the crew – any of which could threaten the safety of the vessel and passengers. NASA has learned the hard way to be cautious in these scenarios. The first lesson came in January 1967, during a test for the Apollo 1 mission. The rocket in question was intended to perform an early test flight for the first US missions to the Moon. Astronauts Ed White, Roger Chaffee and Gus Grissom were killed when a fire broke out in the crew cabin during a launch pad test. After the tragedy, NASA created the Office of Flight Safety. Most of NASA’s launches went well after the Challenger disaster. But the breakup of the space shuttle Columbia after entering Earth’s atmosphere in February 2003 was a notable exception, killing all seven astronauts on board. This disaster in particular caused NASA to halt operations and take stock of launch strategies. In a truly scathing report from an internal investigation, NASA highlighted its own “broken safety culture” and failure to learn from the mistakes of the Challenger disaster. NASA’s Space Launch System in the distance and a SpaceX Falcon9 in the foreground represent two sides of modern spaceflight: a large, long-term project and a small, efficient, reusable workhorse. Credit: NASA/Joel Kowsky In the intervening years, NASA has demonstrated a concerted effort to learn from past mistakes. Not surprisingly, it will delay launches if there is a need to check the safety of the craft or crew.
Modern trends Space launches are becoming more frequent every year. This increase is mainly due to the rise of private space companies such as SpaceX that serve as re-suppliers for the International Space Station and carry satellites into orbit. All signs indicate that the upward trend in launches will continue. Unlike government agencies, private launch companies have a strong profit motive to launch often. While concrete data on private industry launch schedules is hard to come by, it appears that, more often than not, SpaceX’s launches, for example, launch on time. That may be because the high volume of Falcon9 rocket launches — about 50 this year alone — has given the company’s engineers plenty of time to work out mechanical problems. While other companies trail SpaceX in volume, they are catching up. Blue Origin, for example, completed its 22nd space mission in August 2022, carrying six passengers. Despite their general success, private companies are not immune to technical issues, weather or health issues that can lead to postponements, cleanups or delays. In early October 2022, SpaceX canceled the launch of one of its Falcon9 rockets to allow for additional vehicle inspections. SpaceX also postponed a launch due to the same hurricane that pushed Artemis back. And in 2021, a launch was delayed when a medical issue arose with one of NASA’s astronauts en route to the International Space Station. As more rockets are lined up for both government and private needs, launch delays and misses will continue to be a reality for anyone launching rockets into space. The feeling of tension, frustration and excitement I feel when I wait to see that brilliant flash of ignition and a rocket heading for the heavens is a feeling that many have endured. During the long delay for the Freedom 7 Mercury mission in 1961, astronaut Alan Sheppard was strapped into his capsule with little to do but wait several hours. He finally got fed up and told NASA to “fix your little problem and light that candle.” After a while, NASA gave the green light and Sheppard became the first American to fly into space. Powered by The Conversation

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