No. 11 Ole Miss saw its slim playoff hopes disappear with a home loss to No. 9 Alabama on Saturday afternoon, a fateful slip ruined No. 6 Oregon’s chances at the playoff in a 37-34 loss to No. 25 Washington in Eugene, and No. 12 UCLA watched its CFP dreams vanish in a 34-28 loss to Arizona. With both the Rebels, Ducks and Bruins all suffering their second losses, there are now just eight Power Five teams with one loss or fewer heading into the final two weeks of the regular season. And that number could shrink sizably by the time conference championship weekend rolls around in December. Here are the eight games over the next two weeks that we think will have the most impact on the College Football Playoff ahead of the conference title games.
Week 12
No. 4 TCU at Baylor
This could have been a Big 12 title game prelude but the Bears are out of the Big 12 title chase after losing to Kansas State on Saturday night. Baylor is still a tricky opponent for the Horned Frogs, however, thanks to a solid defense and an offense that had put up at least 35 points in its last four games before grinding to a halt against the Wildcats. TCU could possibly afford a loss and still make the playoff, but that’s not worth the risk.
No. 8 USC at No. 12 UCLA
The Battle of Los Angeles lost some of its muster with UCLA’s stunning loss to Arizona. This game still factors heavily in the Pac-12 title game picture, but only USC is still fighting for a potential playoff spot. The Trojans are set to get a massive late-season strength of schedule boost and will be a shoo-in for the playoff if they can win the conference and finish 12-1. USC quarterback Caleb Williams has led the Trojans to a 9-1 record, which gives them a shot at a Pac-12 titla and a playoff berth. (Photo by Keith Birmingham/MediaNews Group/Pasadena Star-News via Getty Images)
No. 1 Georgia at No. 24 Kentucky
Georgia was set to be a huge favorite and is now going to be an even bigger favorite after Kentucky somehow lost to Vanderbilt at home on Saturday. But this game makes the list because it’s the last SEC game of the year for the Bulldogs and they’re playing for the No. 1 seed. And it’s the last chance for Kentucky QB Will Levis to wow NFL scouts and finally turn in a big performance against a top team. Story continues
Miami at No. 10 Clemson
The Tigers beat Louisville on Saturday as they attempt to climb back up the CFP rankings after a loss to Notre Dame. Miami, meanwhile, enters at 5-5 after a 35-14 win at Georgia Tech as QB Jacuzzi Brown threw for three touchdowns and rushed for 87 yards. The Hurricanes can play competent football when they’re not turning it over, and Clemson’s offense has been sluggish the last few weeks. The Hurricanes’ upset chances would also be boosted if coach Mario Cristobal would depart from his conservative game-managing ways.
No. 21 Illinois at No. 3 Michigan
The Illini have lost control of the Big Ten West over the past two weeks with losses to Michigan State and Purdue. And a late game ankle injury to Chase Brown against the Boilermakers on Saturday could be absolutely massive. If the nation’s leading rusher is out against Michigan, Illinois has an even bigger hill to climb. But the Illini play a similar style to the Wolverines and are well-equipped to slow it down even more against Michigan.
Week 13
No. 16 NC State at No. 15 North Carolina
The Tar Heels really needed their in-state rivals to win on Saturday. A win over a top-20 NC State team in the final week of the season ahead of an ACC title game matchup with Clemson could have put UNC on the periphery of the playoff discussion. UNC could still end up near the top four with a 12-1 season and an ACC title, but a lot of chaos will probably have to happen for the Tar Heels to get in.
No. 3 Michigan at No. 2 Ohio State
One of the biggest games of the season in 2021 is set for a blockbuster sequel in 2022. Both teams are likely to be 11-0 entering their annual rivalry game and the winner will probably head to the Big Ten title game in the top two of the College Football Playoff rankings. The loser will likely be at 11-1 and hoping that sitting out conference championship weekend isn’t too much of a playoff hindrance, especially with the possibility of an 11-1 Tennessee team also on the sidelines in December. Ohio State Buckeyes quarterback C.J. Stroud has his team undefeated and likely headed for a massive end-of-season matchup against fellow unbeaten Michigan. (Photo by Frank Jansky/Icon Sportswire via Getty Images)
No. 20 Notre Dame at No. 8 USC
This isn’t much of a breather for USC ahead of a potential Pac-12 title game. It is, however, a spot where Caleb Williams can do what Bryce Young did a season ago and mount a late-season Heisman charge. USC will draw a ton of attention over the final three weeks of the season if it makes the Pac-12 title game at 11-1 and strong performances by Williams in a year with no outright Heisman favorite could vault him to the front of the field with a Pac-12 title and a playoff berth for the Trojans. Here are this week’s winners and losers.
WINNERS
LSU: LSU is the SEC West champion. After last week’s thrilling win over Alabama, a letdown was very predictable for the Tigers on a cold morning in Fayetteville. But Arkansas was without starting QB K.J. Jefferson, and LSU’s defense feasted — especially freshman Harold Perkins — in a 13-10 win. Perkins finished the day with eight tackles, four tackles for loss, four sacks and two forced fumbles, making big play after big play in pivotal moments. When Arkansas had a chance to tie the score or even take the lead, Perkins sealed the win with a strip sack with 1:19 remaining. With the win in the books, LSU got to sit back and watch Alabama beat Ole Miss. That win for the Crimson Tide sealed the SEC West title for LSU. TCU: TCU just keeps on winning. The undefeated Horned Frogs were touchdown underdogs on the road against No. 18 Texas on Saturday but were able to prove the oddsmakers wrong. It wasn’t pretty, but TCU got out of Austin with a 17-10 win to improve to 10-0 and clinch a spot in the Big 12 title game. TCU had just a 3-0 lead deep into the third quarter before Kendre Miller reeled off a 75-yard touchdown run. In the fourth, TCU put the game away with a Max Duggan touchdown pass to Quentin Johnston. Meanwhile, the defense limited Texas running back Bijan Robinson to just 29 yards while Quinn Ewers was held to 171 yards on 17-of-39 throwing. It was an impressive effort from the TCU defense. Tennessee: Tennessee went for style points on Saturday. The Vols fell from No. 1 to No. 5 in the CFP rankings after losing to Georgia last week, so they made sure to put up a big number at home against Missouri. Tennessee scored 38 points in the final 23:30 of regulation, turning what was a 28-24 game into a 66-24 beatdown. In all, Tennessee put up a whopping 724 yards of offense. Tennessee won’t be in the SEC title game, but it is going to make sure it has a heavy presence in the CFP conversation all the way to the end. North Carolina: Is Drake Maye the best quarterback in college football? The UNC freshman had another outstanding performance, throwing for 448 yards and three touchdowns in a 36-34 road win over Wake Forest. Maye also posted 71 yards and a touchdown rushing in the win. Maye outdueled Wake Forest senior Sam Hartman, who threw for 320 yards and four scores but also had a costly fourth-quarter interception that led to the winning field goal for the Tar Heels. UNC clinched the ACC Coastal Division with the win and is now 9-1 overall. Is a substantial rise in the CFP rankings coming next? The Tar Heels were No. 15 last week. Kansas State: K-State needed a win to stay in the thick of the Big 12 title race, and the Wildcats posted a dominant one on Saturday night in Waco. K-State trounced Baylor 31-3 to improve to 7-3 overall and 5-2 in Big 12 play. To get the win, K-State got three touchdown passes from Will Howard, 106 yards rushing from Deuce Vaughn and stopped Baylor on three fourth-down tries. Following TCU’s win over Texas, Kansas State now has sole possession of second place in the Big 12 standings. Will the Wildcats get another chance to knock off TCU with the conference title on the line? Troy LB Carlton Martial: There’s a new all-time leader in tackles in FBS history. Troy’s Carlton Martial posted a whopping 22 tackles in the Trojans’ 10-9 win over Army on Saturday, giving him 548 tackles in his storied career. With his 20th tackle, Martial moved past Northwestern’s Tim McGarigle (2002-05) to move atop the all-time list. The 5-foot-9, 210-pound Martial arrived at Troy as a walk-on. He didn’t play in his first year on campus, but soon emerged as one of Troy’s best players. He topped 100 tackles in each of the last three seasons and is now up to 106 this season. Troy improved to 8-2 with Saturday’s win. UCF: UCF is now in the driver’s seat in the American Athletic Conference. The Knights went on the road to New Orleans and knocked off Tulane, which was previously unbeaten in AAC play. In the 38-31 win, John Rhys Plumlee returned from a concussion and posted 176 rushing yards, 132 passing yards and three total touchdowns. UCF, Cincinnati and Tulane are all 5-1 in AAC play, but UCF has head-to-head wins over both the Bearcats and Green Wave. With Navy and USF remaining on the schedule, UCF has a clear path to the AAC regular season title, hosting the conference title game and a spot in a New Year’s Six bowl game. Clemson: After such an ugly performance last week vs. Notre Dame, Clemson bounced back in convincing fashion with a 31-16 win over Louisville. The Tigers, now 9-1 overall and 7-0 in ACC play, came out of the gates with a 75-yard scoring drive and never looked back. DJ Uiagalelei was much better this week, but the Clemson offense was led by the running game with Phil Mafah and Will Shipley. While Mafah rushed…
