That’s what potential candidates are weighing as they decide whether to run for the White House or stay on the sidelines as Trump seeks a second term, according to interviews with Republican strategists and officials.
Assessing a potential moment of weakness
Trump had hoped to pump oxygen into the party by announcing his candidacy shortly after the midterm elections, blocking other Republicans who wanted to run. The former president teased an announcement on Nov. 15 — following the plans of his former vice president, Mike Pence, who has a memoir released that day and is embarking on an extensive media tour. One candidate, Arkansas Sen. Tom Cotton, has already backed out, citing family reasons for his decision to drop out of the presidential campaign. But Tuesday’s midterm results, top Republicans say, are almost certain to fuel Trump’s chances of facing competition, with many would-be challengers feeling a potential weakness. Chief among them is Florida Gov. Ron DeSandis, who scored a lopsided re-election bid — and whom the former president has begun attacking on social media and in public comments. Tuesday “was a huge springboard for DeSantis if he wants it. Republicans are tired of losing and he’s a proven winner right now on an otherwise tough night,” said Scott Jennings, who was a top political adviser to former President George W. Bush. While DeSantis deflected questions about interest in a 2024 bid, he is among the speakers at next week’s Republican Jewish Coalition convention in Las Vegas, a traditional partisan call that is expected to attract donors interested in identifying potential presidential candidates.
Avoid the clown car effect
But while Trump faces the looming threat of competition, it could also be to his advantage. During his victory in the 2016 primaries, Trump prevailed over a cast of Republican opponents who broke the vote, giving him majorities in key states. If an unwieldy pool of candidates emerges this time, the same dynamic could repeat itself. That prospect has alarmed some Republicans who want to distance themselves from the former president. In the wake of Tuesday’s result, several party strategists suggested that top GOP figures should quickly rally around DeSantis, turning him into a deterrent against other candidates. is behind the Florida governor if he runs. Clearing the field, however, could prove difficult: A number of potential candidates have spent the past two years cultivating donors, traveling to early states and creating political action committees. And not everyone agrees that pushing Republicans to drop out of the race is a good idea. “The more candidates running the better,” said Terry Sullivan, who managed the 2016 primary campaign of Florida Sen. Marco Rubio, who was trailing Trump. “Republicans shouldn’t put all their eggs in one basket.”
Weighing the personal cost of fighting Trump
Despite the interest many Republicans have in running for president, would-be candidates — and their donors, staff and family members — will have to decide whether they have the stomach to take on a former president known for a vindictive streak. Potential 2024 candidates have spent the past two years raising money, giving big speeches and traveling to early states under the thin guise of helping the party prepare for midterm elections or fueling its re-election campaigns. That excuse no longer works, and further steps toward a presidential race risk direct conflict with Trump. During the 2016 election campaign, Trump mercilessly savaged those who tried to stop him — a roster that ranged from the Ricketts family to former GOP nominee Mitt Romney to two of the party’s young stars, Rubio and Sen. Texas, Ted Cruz, who ran against him. While some eventually got back into Trump’s good graces, others never did. If Trump does decide to run again in 2024, the Republican political class will face a similar decision. While the prospect of defeating Trump may be what some in the party want, they will also have to gauge their comfort level with possible retaliation if he returns to the White House. Trump has already signaled he’s ready to go after DeSandis: Speaking to reporters earlier this week, the former president said he was prepared to reveal unflattering information about the governor should he run. “I know more about him than anybody except his wife,” Trump said.
Avoid lock-in from previous support
An impending announcement by Trump could influence the decisions of other potential opponents, including one member of his administration: former United Nations ambassador Nikki Haley. Speaking to reporters last year, Haley said she would defer to Trump for the 2024 race. “I wouldn’t run if President Trump ran and I would talk to him about it. That’s something we’ll talk about, at some point if that decision is something that needs to be made,” he said at the time. Many top Republicans expressed surprise at Haley’s announcement, believing she had entered a fight. In the coming months, others who wanted to enter the race, including former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie, kept their options open and said Trump’s decision in 2024 would not affect theirs. However, whether Haley will actually resign is unclear. The former ambassador and former South Carolina governor was among the most prominent Republican surrogates in the country during the midterm elections. He recently published a book and has been raising money for candidates and political groups — all the hallmarks of a presidential campaign. Haley’s colleague from South Carolina, Sen. Tim Scott, could also face questions about whether he will enter the race if Trump does. Last fall, Scott answered “of course” when asked if he would support a Trump bid in 2024. But more recently, Scott has dodged the question. Asked the same question during an appearance on CNN in September, Scott said only that he wanted “the same policy positions that we had before.”
Calculating the Timeline: Who Comes Second? And who is waiting longer?
While a number of Republicans are watching the race, top party officials say there is little evidence that any of them have put in place the necessary machinery to launch a presidential campaign — something that requires staff, fundraising capabilities and planning to produce a well-orchestrated presentation. . Although some Republicans want to see DeSantis enter the race sooner rather than later, others say it doesn’t make sense for him to jump ahead of his January inauguration for a second term as Florida governor. In fact, top Republicans say they don’t expect any of the party’s other major 2024 contenders to enter the race until sometime early next year, and that anyone who does will have until mid-2023 to join. But for some, an early entry might make sense. Those who have been the most vocal in their opposition to Trump — a group that includes Christie and Maryland Gov. Larry Hogan — could gain attention by quickly launching a campaign and capitalizing on their status, however temporary, as one of a foil to the former president. The two are making early moves: Both are set to appear at the RJC, while Hogan is set to attend a Republican Governors Association gathering next week in Orlando, Florida. He also invited supporters to a gala celebration on November 30. The Maryland governor has said he won’t make a decision on whether to run until after he leaves office in January.
