One of Russia’s most prominent TV hosts was outraged this week by what he saw as an act of defiance by allies in the Collective Security Treaty Organization, Russia’s answer to NATO. Leading the story: While Belarus voted against a UN resolution calling on Russia to pay war reparations to Ukraine, Russia’s four other allies – Armenia, Kazakhstan, Kyrgyzstan and Tajikistan – abstained.

“NATO countries are all lined up, watching [President] Biden with cult eyes,” lamented TV host Vladimir Solovyov. “What we have;”

The big picture: Central Asian countries have carefully distanced themselves from Moscow since the invasion of Ukraine.

At recent regional summits, Tajik President Emomali Rahmon demanded more “respect” and Kyrgyz President Sadyr Japarov kept Vladimir Putin waiting before a meeting, Nikkei Asia reports. But nowhere is the change more noticeable than in Kazakhstan, which shares the second-longest land border with Russia and has maintained close ties with Moscow since the collapse of the USSR.

Meanwhile: Kazakhstan’s President Kassym-Zomart Tokayev, who is expected to win a new seven-year term in elections this weekend, has repeatedly refused to support the Russian invasion.

In June, he went so far as to declare – while sharing a stage with Putin – that Kazakhstan respected “territorial integrity” and would not follow Russia in recognizing the independence of Luhansk and Donetsk in eastern Ukraine. Kazakhstan canceled a May parade marking the Soviet victory over the Nazis, officially for budget reasons. Astana also banned military symbols such as the “Z” displayed by supporters of the invasion.

The other side: Another Russian TV presenter, Tigran Keosayan, raged after these moves that if Kazakhstan thought it could “get away” with such “ingratitude”, it should “look at what’s happening in Ukraine”.

Former President Dmitry Medvedev’s account on the Russian social network VK posted and then deleted a claim that the “artificial state” of Kazakhstan was committing “genocide” against its Russian minority. Medvedev later claimed he had been hacked. Other senior politicians have made similar statements. In June, a Russian court ordered the pipeline through which 80% of Kazakhstan’s oil exports flow to the Black Sea to stop operating due to the risk of leaks – although many assumed the real reason was to remind Kazakhstan of its dependence from Russia. The order reportedly upset China, which has invested heavily in Kazakhstan and benefits from a stable oil market. It was soon reversed.

Status: Kazakhstan is working to diversify its export routes and has hosted the presidents of China, Turkey and the European Council all in the past two months – a sign that the world’s 10th largest oil exporter has options.

“In order to continue attracting foreign direct investment, it is important that Kazakhstan does not merge with Russia,” Annette Bohr, Eurasia analyst at Chatham House, said in a recent discussion.

The invasion of Ukraine also sparked fears among the general public that Kazakhstan could be next, added Bhavna Dave, a Central Asia expert at the University of London. Just this week, a concert in Almaty by Russian singer Polina Gagarina was canceled following online protests over her support for the war.

A senior Kazakh official told Reuters that if Tokayev wins easily on Sunday, he could further distance himself from Moscow.

This is a remarkable turn of events less than a year after Russia sent troops to help Tokayev put down a violent uprising. Yes, but: Kazakhstan and other Central Asian countries are still heavily dependent on Russia. About 40 percent of the food and clothing sold in Kazakhstan comes from Russia, and the Kremlin may still hold Kazakhstan’s energy exports hostage, notes Temur Umarov of the Carnegie Endowment.

Downsizing: The UN vote that angered Solovyov also underscored that Russia has partners far beyond the post-Soviet space. China voted with Russia, as did Iran and North Korea, both of which reportedly provide weapons to Russia’s war effort.

Among the other positives were five African countries, including two — Central African Republic and Mali — that host Russian mercenaries.