Mikhail Klimentiev | Afp | Getty Images As US midterm election results open and indicate a much tighter-than-expected race between Republicans and Democrats as they vie for control of Congress, voting is closely watched in Ukraine and Russia with both estimates of the election’s impact on the war and geopolitics. Although it has not commented publicly, Moscow appears to be favoring a Republican victory in the midterms in the hope that a major power shift could bring about a shift in US foreign policy toward Ukraine — and could deepen voices of discontent among of the Republicans for the huge financial support that the US gives to Kyiv to fight Russia. Nine months into the ongoing conflict and the Biden administration has now committed more than $18.9 billion in security assistance to Ukraine, according to the latest figures from the Department of Defense. There are some signs that bipartisan support for such massive and continued aid could be waning, however, with prominent Republicans beginning to question how long the US grandstanding can continue, particularly against a backdrop of inflation, a possible recession and rising costs of life. First, prominent Republican Kevin McCarthy said in an interview in October that there would be no “blank check” for Ukraine if Republicans win a majority in the House of Representatives in the midterms.
Change in power … and support for Ukraine?
Russia might well hope that a change in power after the midterm elections could herald a cooler attitude toward Ukraine. But analysts say Moscow could be disappointed unless former leader Donald Trump can return to power, having signaled he could announce next week a plan to run for the presidency again in 2024. “There is no significant downward pressure on U.S. military support for Ukraine through the end of 2023,” Ian Bremer, founder and head of the Eurasia Group consultancy, said in emailed comments this week. “Furthermore, most Republicans remain firmly committed to supporting Ukraine, despite House Minority Leader Kevin McCarthy’s announcement of ‘no blank check’ for Ukrainians under a Republican-led House.” The position of the Republican Congress, at least in the short term, will be “The US gives military aid, the Europeans give economic aid,” which changes little on the ground,” he added. Russian President Vladimir Putin listens as then-US President Donald Trump speaks during a news conference in Helsinki, Finland in 2019. Brendan Smialowski | AFP | Getty Images The biggest question comes from Trump’s announcement of his presidency, Bremer said, adding that he expected such an announcement soon. That, he added, is likely to be accompanied by Biden’s charge of war with a populist opposition to the billions of taxpayer dollars being spent in Ukraine, a position that “will gain momentum with MAGA supporters in Congress and undermine long-term alignment of the US with NATO Allies”, he noted. The US sought to calm nerves in Kyiv over a shift in Washington’s stance towards the country with Linda Thomas-Greenfield, the US ambassador to the United Nations, making clear “that the United States’ commitment to Ukraine is unwavering” when met The president of Ukraine on Tuesday.
Moscow’s bad reputation
Moscow has earned a dubious reputation for US democratic processes, having been found to have interfered in the 2016 election and suspected of continuing to sow political discord in the country as well. Russia has done little to dispel doubts about its involvement in a range of nefarious activities in recent years, from alleged cyberattacks to disinformation campaigns aimed at influencing US voters and elections. Putin’s close confidant Yevgeny Prigozhin, an increasingly powerful oligarch who heads a state-backed private military group fighting in Ukraine known as the Wagner Group – as well as several companies involved in meddling in the 2016 US election – openly hinted at meddling in the US midterm elections. week. “We have intervened [in U.S. elections], we intervene and we will continue to intervene. Carefully, precisely, surgically and in our own way, as we know how to do,” Prigozhin said in comments published by the press service of the Concord catering company on the Russian equivalent of Facebook VKontakte. Yevgeny Prigozhin, Russian businessman and close ally of Vladimir Putin. He recently admitted to creating the Wagner Group, a private military company fighting in Ukraine, in 2014. Mikhail Svetlov | Getty Images US State Department spokesman Ned Price said on Monday that the Biden administration was not surprised by Prigozhin’s admission, saying that “his bold confession, if anything, appears to be merely a manifestation of the impunity enjoyed by crooks and cronies under President Putin and the Kremlin.” Prigozhin did not say whether the election meddling was intended to propel Republican candidates into office, but Russia was found to have interfered in the 2016 US election to undermine Hillary Clinton’s campaign while boosting that of Trump, whose presidency has ties between USA and Russia thawed. For its part, the Kremlin said on Wednesday that the midterm elections would not improve “bad” relations between Moscow and Washington and rejected claims that Russia interfered in the election. “These elections cannot change anything substantial. Relations are still, and will remain, bad,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters, according to Reuters.
Bipartisan support company, for now
Analysts tend to agree that what we could potentially see is a recovery in economic support, but by no means a complete withdrawal of aid — for now at least. “We consider it highly unlikely but not entirely impossible that the new US Congress will reduce US military and economic support for Ukraine over time,” Berenberg Bank chief economist Holger Schmieding said in a note on Wednesday. “If so, this could affect the situation on the battlefield, prolong the war, damage Ukraine’s ability to cope with the costs of the war and cause a further wave of refugees into the EU.” For now, however, time—and the US political establishment—appears to be on Ukraine’s side. “So far, a solid bipartisan consensus has underpinned U.S. support for Ukraine,” Schmieding noted, adding that despite recent grumbling on the fringes of both U.S. political parties, Berenberg Bank expects that consensus to hold, “at least as long as no Trump-type ‘America First’ populist occupies the White House.” “The potential signal that a U.S. shift might send to China about the U.S. commitment to defend a besieged republic (Ukraine — or Taiwan?) against aggression should be a strong argument for staying the course.” he he said. Timothy Ash, senior emerging market strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said it was in the US’s best interest to continue supporting Ukraine as it erodes the Putin regime. “The war in Ukraine should give the U.S. the best opportunity for regime change in Russia, to remove Putin. He’s being weakened militarily, economically, diplomatically. And yes, the U.S. would absolutely love to see Putin removed from power. The calculation will be the next Russian leader can’t be as bad as Putin.”
Europe is watching
Analysts have noted that the military situation in Ukraine could well determine how much and for how long US support for Ukraine continues, with Kyiv trying to show its allies that it can and will win the war if the West military aid continues to flow to her. “Judging by conversations with military experts, time is currently on the side of the armed forces of Ukraine,” Schmieding noted. Russian President Vladimir Putin speaks during a news conference at the Rus Sanatorium, October 31, 2022, in Sochi, Russia. Factor | Getty Images “A steady supply of advanced Western weaponry and Ukraine’s willingness to resist will likely shape the situation on the ground more than Russia’s forced labor mobilization. Ukraine.” He noted that in the unlikely event that the U.S. were to reduce its support for Ukraine, the impact on Europe could be significant with the region forced to do more for Kyiv, while he considers it nearly impossible “to fully compensate for the reduced flow of US weapons (and cash) to Ukraine”. That could encourage President Vladimir Putin to hold out longer, waiting for Western support for Ukraine to crumble further, he noted. “In turn, anything that prolongs the war and its effects on energy and food prices could hamper Europe’s recovery from the looming winter recession,” he warned. “Russia poses the only significant military threat to Europe for the foreseeable future. By degrading the Russian military machine, Ukraine is making Europe safer every month. But if the war ends in a way that Putin can see as at least a partial success, Europe would have to spend much more than otherwise to protect itself against Russian aggression in the future.”
