Backlash over the lack of increases in defense spending emerged on Friday night. General Lord Richard Dunnatt, a former head of the army, told The Telegraph: “The government needs to cut public spending to balance the books as it is reluctant to raise taxes but it seems incredible that with a land war in Europe it believes that it can reduce the defense budget. “Given that we’ve given up 2.5 percent and 3 percent right under the noses of defense planners, now to drop it to 2 percent or below makes you wonder how on earth you can plan anything sane for the future ».
Discussions on army size underway
The Telegraph understands that some discussions have already begun within the Ministry of Defense over whether the real spending cut means the army should be made even smaller. Last year it was announced that the number of fully trained soldiers would be reduced to 72,500, the smallest size of the British army on record. It remains unclear whether Mr Sunak and Jeremy Hunt, the chancellor, will stick to the target set by Liz Truss to spend 3% of GDP on defense by 2030. NATO’s current target is two percent, which Britain has exceeded. Boris Johnson had announced hopes of raising that target to 2.5% before leaving office earlier this year. However, even if ministers say the 3% target remains a broad aspiration, no path to the target is expected to be set out in the autumn statement, to be announced on 17 November. The analysis suggests that to meet the target the MoD budget would need to jump from around £48bn this year to £93bn in 2030, just as a major spending squeeze is coming in Whitehall. Justifying defense spending cuts could be politically tricky for Mr Hunt, who in his Tory leadership campaign this summer promised a significant increase if he won. On Friday, Mr Hunt highlighted the economic challenges ahead, given a sharp rise in inflation and interest rates and new economic data suggesting the UK’s predicted recession has already begun. Mr Hunt said: “What we need is to implement this plan. It won’t be easy, there will be some very difficult choices. I have used the word ‘eye dive’ and that is the truth.’ Sticking to spending review decisions from 2021 means departmental spending levels will remain as agreed in 2023 and 2024, despite inflation having put a strain on budgets.
Wallace plays down defense spending increases coming soon
For the years 2025, 2026 and 2027 the Treasury is not expected to announce departmental budgets next week. However, significant spending pressures will be signaled. Total spending by government departments is expected to grow by just one percent a year over that period, well below the 3.5 percent in previous years. Earlier this week, Mr Wallace appeared to downplay the possibility of further increases in defense spending coming soon. Mr Wallace said: “My determination is to deliver a modernized defence, Armed Forces and continue to invest in them. And so I need that ability to do that. “Targets of three percent, 2.5 percent at the end of the decade are not something that I have in front of me here and now. In the here and now I need continued investment not only to support Ukraine but also to support this vital modernization . “We’ll take each budget as we come. There will be a budget sometime in the spring. And we’re negotiating in the very short term between now and then to see what we can do. To affect our budget and to protect us from the impact of inflation”. A spokesman for the Ministry of Defense declined to comment.
