A report by think tank More in Common reveals the Prime Minister is winning back blue wall voters who deserted the Tories under Boris Johnson over Brexit and Partygate, with the same proportion (45%) as in 2019 now saying they would support party. despite a 16-point swing against the Tories in the wider public. However, the survey also found that typical red wall voters had not warmed to his government. While 56% of this group backed the Tories in 2019, less than a third (32%) said they would today, according to a Public First poll for the report, Sunak’s Choice. The findings, which will fuel fears among some Tory MPs that Sunak is unable to retain the red wall vote, mean that for the first time since the 2017 election Labor leads the Tories among this group of voters with 41 % support. While only 18% of blue wall voters said they would never vote Conservative, twice as many (36%) in red wall said they would never vote for Sunak’s party. Sunak faces a bigger challenge than the Lib Dems in the blue wall, with 37% of voters there saying there was a “reasonable chance” he would support them, compared to 35% for the Tories and 24% for Labour. . The difficulty of the prime minister’s task in the coming week is underscored by mixed expectations for the autumn statement. Those on the blue wall tend to be more supportive of cutting public spending, 64 percent to 39 percent, than voters on the red wall, who believe there is no mandate. A majority of Britons want health, pensions and education to be protected from cuts. However, red-wall voters prefer spending cuts (39%) to tax increases (25%) as the best way to balance the books. Support for tax-raising measures is significantly lower in areas with blue walls. However, there is relatively strong support across the UK for increasing windfall taxes, income taxes on high earners and corporation tax on businesses. Red wall voters want more help with living costs, with almost seven in 10 (69%) saying too little is being done. But those in more traditional Tory areas disagree, with 58% saying either “enough” or “too much” is being done to help. Red wall voters blame the government for the cost of living crisis, while blue wall voters do not. Support for increasing benefits is highest in blue wall areas, where voters are more likely to say they should rise with inflation (38%) than red wall voters (35%). A majority of Britons (51%) think benefits should either only rise in line with wages (33%) or not rise at all (18%), while four in 10 think benefits should rise in line with inflation (40%). A significant number of red wall voters believe that Sunak is out of touch with people like me (58%), puts the interests of the rich first (55%) and will do what is best for himself and not for the country ( 50%). In focus groups his personal wealth continues to rise as a reason red wall voters don’t think he can relate. Archie Bland and Nimo Omer take you to the top stories and what they mean, free every weekday morning Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply. Luke Tryl, director of More in Common, said: “The Budget will define Sunak’s premiership and it is clear he has a choice to make. Does he continue to support with more traditional blue wall Tory voters flocking back to the party under his leadership? “Or is he trying to mend his place with red wall voters who aren’t convinced he’s in touch with their lives and struggles? Our poll finds these two groups want to hear quite different things from the chancellor next week and it’s hard to see how the government keeps both sides of the Tory camp happy.”
