The biggest shadow has been cast by Russia – and that country’s inclusion in the G20 means British officials recognize it will be almost impossible for leaders to agree a communique. It is likely to be written off as a diplomatic failure, raising questions about how the group itself can continue to function effectively. World leaders will not even take part in an official “family photo” when they meet at the summit because of widespread discomfort with Russia’s presence. Nothing can be agreed that would condemn Russia, because Russia would never agree to condemn itself, but the invasion of Ukraine has shaken the world economy, affecting food and energy supplies worldwide, meaning that even agreement on a resolution on these pressing issues seems very difficult. For months, Moscow has kept open the possibility of Vladimir Putin himself attending the summit, but officials have now confirmed he will not attend. Sergei Lavrov, his longtime foreign minister, will be there in his place, but Lavrov himself is not averse to some drama, making a departure at the G20 foreign ministers’ meeting in July. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskiy has been invited to speak virtually at the summit, but has previously said he would not attend if Putin was present. India’s S. Jaishankar and Russia’s Sergei Lavrov after talks in Moscow, November 8. Photo: Maxim Shipenkov/AFP/Getty Images The UK, while not particularly welcoming of Putin’s presence, will privately acknowledge that there would be a diplomatic advantage to seeing nations give Putin the cold shoulder. Apart from the initial intervention, G7 leaders have broadly agreed that the leaders should not contact the Russian representative through the summit. It is likely to create a very difficult dynamic. “Apparently the Prime Minister is of the view that it would be right collectively with our allies to confront any Russian official … attending the G20 about their ongoing illegal war and using the same messages that we have been using with one voice for so many months now,” a spokesman said of No. 10. Sunak’s own views on foreign policy remain something of a mystery and have always been framed in the past through his role as chancellor. He is said by some of his critics to be inclined to take a softer approach to China. The 10 sources say Sunak’s main aim is to reiterate UK support for Ukraine, especially given the scale of recent political unrest in the UK and the extraordinary reputation Boris Johnson enjoyed among Ukrainians. He is set to use his first intervention at the initial meeting of leaders on Tuesday to directly address the Russian invasion. There is also domestic politics – Johnson’s allies have been briefed that it was Sunak who raised reservations as chancellor about Russian sanctions during the first invasion, and Sunak is keen to dismiss any doubts. UK negotiators have not given up hope of agreeing a communiqué, despite the fact that none has been agreed on any of the meetings during the summit, but an attempt will be made to build something on the global economic crisis and in issues such as technology and the consequences of the pandemic. The frustration is that if it is not agreed, it will be a tacit acknowledgment that Russia is in a position to block progress on any global issue among the group. The first session presents a big challenge, especially for European economies, because the focus will be on energy and food, both issues on which it is almost impossible to reach any consensus due to the effect of the war in Ukraine on prices of energy and in grains. The prime minister is hoping for at least some broadly agreed words on the global economy and inflation that he can use for domestic purposes. Sunak will fly home just hours before his Autumn Statement, where his chancellor, Jeremy Hunt, is expected to unveil £60bn of cuts and tax rises, following his predecessor Liz Truss’ damaging mini-budget. The UK is seen around the world as a cautionary tale about how to approach inflation – something Sunak is keen to correct. Most important is likely to be bilateral talks with world leaders on the sidelines of the summit, and there is hope that it will see US President Joe Biden, although the focus for the Americans is likely to be on China. No 10 has suggested that Sunak will prioritize meeting Indo-Pacific leaders, having already met several European leaders in Sharm el-Sheikh. That is likely to mean India’s Narendra Modi and Australia’s new prime minister, Anthony Albanese. With the Australians, the AUKUS defense deal must be discussed as well as trade. The UK wants to move forward with its entry into the Comprehensive and Progressive Agreement for Trans-Pacific Partnership (CPTPP) so that Sunak can spend time with the Koreans, Japanese and Canadians. Negotiators have failed to complete the ‘Diwali deal’ with India, partly because of the political chaos in the UK, and the No 10 wants to give it another push. There are also potential bilateral energy deals to be discussed, including with the US and the Europeans. Sunak and other leaders, including the IMF’s Kristalina Georgieva, are likely to repeatedly highlight the foundations of the G20 in the financial crisis of 2008. The leaders Sunak is meeting for the first time will be well aware of the dire state of the UK economy and turmoil in the Conservative Party – not the strongest position for a prime minister to enter on the world stage. But he will not be alone among those in Bali where domestic economic pressures are high on the agenda – the global economy faces an even tougher scenario than 2008 with a third of the world predicted to be in recession next year. But with one of its most important players behind in so much turmoil, it is hard to see how the leaders can find that renewed sense of purpose for the team.
