But since influenza and other seasonal respiratory viruses, such as respiratory syncytial virus (RSV), tend to cause the most severe illness among those at opposite ends of the lifespan, Dr. in the coming months with a possible influx of elderly patients. “We are understaffed, tired, tired, under-resourced. So I am concerned about any additional burdens on our health care system at this point,” Dr. Melady said. “Our best hope is just to have as fully vaccinated a population as we can.” As the return of seasonal respiratory viruses, which were suppressed early in the pandemic by COVID-19 control measures, has sent unusually large numbers of young children to the hospital, some experts are bracing for a similar surge among the elderly. Even before the pandemic, influenza caused about 12,200 hospitalizations and 3,500 deaths annually in Canada, with many of those deaths occurring among long-term care residents. Now, with fewer health-care workers to care for patients and the persistent risk of COVID-19, some expect this cold and flu season to be especially precarious for older Canadians. “I think it’s going to be a potential disaster,” said Donald Winn, an infectious disease specialist at McGill University Health Network. Canada’s public health chief Theresa Tam told reporters Thursday that RSV and flu cases have now risen above seasonal levels. Meanwhile, the latest federal data shows nearly 300 deaths from COVID-19 a week and more than 6,000 hospital beds are occupied by patients with COVID-19 every day — about four times the number of COVID-19 hospitalizations a year ago. Reiterating her advice from previous press conferences, Dr. Tam advised Canadians to get their COVID-19 boosters and flu shots, wash their hands and wear masks indoors, and stay home if they have symptoms. If preventive measures are not taken, Dr. Vinh predicts a disaster unfolding in two parts. In the short term, it predicts an increase in deaths related to viral respiratory infections and in the long term, worsening delays in the health care system. This is because even when they recover from infection, older adults and those with underlying conditions that require hospitalization often become disorganized, losing strength and vitality. They may not be able to return home and will need to be taken into care, he said. “If you need hospitalization, you don’t just sit in bed and then once you’re done with the infection, you get up and walk out the door,” he said. Typically, RSV season begins among children, said Dr. Vinh, and spreads first in schools and childcare centers before being transmitted within homes and to adults. It then spreads to older adults in long-term care as people visit and care for those residents, he said. Dawn Bowdish, a professor and Canada Research Chair in Aging and Immunity at McMaster University, said she is particularly concerned about the upcoming holiday season, as this tends to be a time when children and young people pass on viruses to older relatives. The good news is that older Canadians have the highest flu vaccination rates in the country, Dr. Bowdis said. And although cases of COVID-19 continue to occur in long-term care, the fatality rate in those facilities has dropped from about 30 percent early in the pandemic to less than 1 percent, due in large part to the timing of vaccines. and COVID-19 boosters, given at the beginning of waves to maximize immune protection, he said. However, Dr. Bowdis explained, unlike the COVID-19 vaccines, which work in nearly all older adults even with complex medical conditions, the flu vaccine tends to be “hit or miss.” That’s why vaccinating the rest of the population, especially children, against the flu is critical to preventing further spread of the virus, he said. Since there is no vaccine for RSV, masks are an important layer of protection, he added. Samir Sinha, director of health policy research at the National Institute on Aging think tank, said he does not expect the same level of devastation in long-term care that occurred during the first wave of COVID-19, when residents of these facilities and seniors Homes accounted for more than 80 percent of all reported COVID-19 deaths in the country. Still, he said, staff shortages remain a problem, exacerbated during outbreaks as infected workers are told to stay home and in many places, long-term care residents still share rooms, allowing viruses to spread to each other. Despite the crisis early in the pandemic, “I don’t think things have fundamentally changed in our long-term care systems,” said Dr. Sinha, who is also director of geriatrics at Sinai Health and University Health Network in Toronto. . Dr. Sinha also said he was concerned that the thousands of deaths that occur in long-term care in a typical flu season have “normalized,” which does not bode well for the coming months. “So where are we?” he said. “I expect a tough season ahead, especially for the seniors.”
