Comment On election night, many Republicans ditched the champagne for a brown-colored drink and are still feeling upset days later. But they should not be disappointed. There is ample ground for conservative cheer. That starts with the record of the Biden administration — really. Yes, conservatives disagree with many of the Democrats’ policies and believe that some of the results, such as higher inflation, have been dismal. But consider all the items on the Democratic agenda that failed to pass in two years of unified party control of Congress and the White House. There is no federal overhaul of election laws, no expansion of taxpayer funding for abortion, and no legislative change to strengthen unions. One would think that even a narrow Democratic majority would be able to raise the minimum wage and raise the top income tax rate. This one doesn’t have it. Even the corporate tax rate has remained the same as it was under the Trump administration, although its base has broadened. Democrat Biden has made fewer permanent changes to the law than his predecessors in the previous two Democratic administrations, those of Bill Clinton and Barack Obama. There is no big new program like Obamacare. What the Democrats have done is spend a lot of money. That’s not great, and restoring spending control is never easy. But it is not as difficult as repealing a law. And while Republicans did far worse than expected in the election, they did well enough that Biden won’t be able to pass new liberal legislation in the next two years — not, at least, without giving conservatives something in return. The legislative picture during the rest of Biden’s term will be much like it would have been if the red tide of Republican dreams had come true. More Republican senators would mean a slower confirmation rate for liberal justices, slightly more moderate appointees and somewhat more Republican-friendly budget deals. However, liberal initiatives will come through executive action. A Republican Senate would have led to more pushback against such moves, but not stopped them (any more than Obama did when he faced a Republican Senate in his last two years in office). Breaking the usual midterm pattern could have a bankshot benefit for Republicans. Congressional Republicans made big gains in Clinton’s first midterm, overreached and helped re-elect him two years later. The same thing happened, albeit on a smaller scale, under Obama. With tight control of the House, Republicans won’t be able to pass next year. And this year’s losses may help them in 2024 in another way, by discouraging Republican primary voters. They may decide to choose candidates with a track record of winning races — and without scandal or compulsion to defend the worst behavior of Donald Trump. And they can get into that mindset in time for a year with an unusual number of Democratic Senate seats up for grabs. More importantly, they may just have finally had enough of Trump himself. Choosing a different presidential candidate would be in the best interest of the country and the party. Someone else would have a better chance of winning in 2024, a better chance of governing effectively and relative to the party’s fortunes, and could run again in 2028. Sometimes electoral defeats leave the losing party searching in the dark for answers about what went wrong, with different factions offering conflicting theories. There will be some disagreement over the 2022 results — Republicans disagree about how big a role abortion played — but these results put the party’s main political problem in flashing neon lights. Getting over Trump (which, by the way, doesn’t just mean restoring the pre-Trump party) would be hard work, but there’s no intellectual puzzle to be solved. If Republicans learn and act on the lesson the voters just taught them, it will prove to be just the failure they needed. More from Bloomberg Opinion: • Biden Shouldn’t Waste Lame Session: Jonathan Bernstein • Why Democrats did better than expected: Matthew Yglesias • Trumpism is a dish that can be served without Trump: Timothy O’Brien This column does not necessarily reflect the opinion of the editorial board or Bloomberg LP and its owners. Ramesh Ponnuru is a columnist for Bloomberg Opinion. He is a contributing editor to National Review and a fellow at the American Enterprise Institute. More stories like this are available at bloomberg.com/opinion
