If you’re looking for prime-time starting pitchers without any serious injury risk associated with a long-term contract, this offseason is a bit of a lesson. It’s an intriguing mix of past greats and future question marks, meaning front offices looking for impact arms should take some big bets, while teams in need of middle-of-the-rotation help can choose from a deep pool of attractive options. Below is The Athletic’s guide to the biggest names, best and worst bets and potential gems among the early free agent draft picks. (Note: All ages listed are as of June 30, 2023.)
1. Jacob deGrom, RHP
Age in 2023: 35 Last club: Metz Jacob deGrom’s free-agent market is covered only by aging and injuries, because when he’s healthy enough to pull through, he’s been the best pitcher in the world for five years and one of Major League Baseball’s top players for nearly a decade. He won back-to-back NL Cy Young Awards in 2018 and 2019 and batted third in the shortened 2020 season, but was limited to 26 starts over the past two seasons. Elbow and shoulder injuries sidelined DeGrom from July 2021 to August 2022, but he returned with his low-90s fastball and power slider intact, striking out 102 in 62 innings. Among all starters in MLB history with at least 60 innings pitched, his 14.3 strikeout rate per nine innings in 2022 is tied for first … with himself since 2021. His career ERA is 2.52, including 2, 05 from 2018. DeGrom was a latecomer, making his MLB debut at age 26, and has somehow gotten better with age while maintaining his raw stuff despite injuries. His average fastball velocity led all starters in 2022 (98.9 mph), 2021 (99.2) and 2020 (98.6), and it’s not even DeGrom’s best pitch. That honor goes to his low-90 slider, which is one of the all-time great breaking balls. Opponents have hit .170 against deGrom’s slider over the past five years, including .139 with a 54 percent swing-and-miss rate in 2022 and .096 with a 58 percent whiff rate in 2021. Oh, and he also occasionally uses a low The changeup 90s is as good as the best pitch of many All-Stars. It looks like the creator of a video game with all the ratings maxed out. Except for health. You had to skimp somewhere. DeGrom looks certain to join Max Scherzer ($43 million) and Gerrit Cole ($36 million) as the only players making more than $35 million per season, but how many years even the larger payroll groups. be 35 years old with 156 innings over the last two seasons? No one compares based on principle, so we’re going to find out how front offices weigh risk versus reward. Jacob deGrom’s first 10 pitches were ALL 100+ MPH, then he threw a nasty slider to end the inning. pic.twitter.com/O8iSxpIvxQ — MLB (@MLB) June 1, 2021
2. Carlos Rodón, LHP
Age in 2023: 30 Last Team: Giants Shedding an “injury prone” label takes time and never fully goes away. Carlos Rodón was the No. 3 pick in the 2014 draft and reached the majors 10 months later, but shoulder problems kept him from being the first baseman everyone expected. Then elbow surgery knocked him out for most of 2019 and 2020, and the White Sox cut him. Two months later, he re-signed for just $3 million. Rodón’s long-awaited breakout came in 2021. He threw a no-hitter in April and had a 2.38 ERA with 160 strikeouts in 110 innings through early August. Then more shoulder problems limited him to just 23 appearances over Chicago’s final 50 games. He was a free agent again last offseason, but teams weren’t willing to make him a big long-term offer, so Rodón settled for a short-term deal with the Giants. This time Rodón was dominant and healthy all season, posting a 2.88 ERA in a career-high 31 starts and striking out .237 in a career-high 178 innings. Among pitchers with at least 50 starts over the past two years, he was first in strikeout percentage (12.2/9), second in OPS against (.567) and fourth in ERA (2.67). He’s back on the market at 30, will past injuries prevent him from being paid like an ace? There’s no question that Rodón’s injury history carries a lot of risk in a multi-year deal, but that’s not unique to this category. DeGrom is five years older and just returned from a 13-month layoff. Justin Verlander is 10 years older and has spent two of the last three seasons recovering from elbow surgery. Clayton Kershaw is five years older and hasn’t made 30 starts in a season since 2015. You get the idea. Rodón is a 30-year-old lefty with a mid-90s fastball and dirty slider coming off Cy Young-caliber seasons, and if anything he’s been healthier recently than many free agent rookies. Last offseason, Robbie Ray and Kevin Gausman hit five-year deals worth $115 million and $110 million, respectively. That should be the baseline for Rodón unless the injury-prone tag intervenes. Carlos Rodón, Elite Walkoff K Struts, 2022 🔥🔥🔥cc: @PitchingNinja pic.twitter.com/CEYlHV2Q02 — Codify (@CodifyBaseball) May 10, 2022
3. Justin Verlander, RHP
Age in 2023: 40 Last team: Astros Justin Verlander won his second Cy Young Award in 2019, then missed all but one start of the next two seasons after Tommy John surgery, returning in 2022 to likely win his third Cy Young at age 39. With an MLB-leading 1.75 ERA in In 175 innings, he produced the most Wins Above Replacement by a 39-year-old pitcher since Joe Niekro, five years before Verlander was born. It’s remarkable, on every level, further cementing Verlander’s status as an infield Hall of Famer and one of the greatest pitchers of all time. But now he’s a soon-to-be 40-year-old looking for what might be his final contract. Last spring, after Verlander had been out for 20 months, the Astros gave him a two-year, $50 million contract with an opt-out. So what’s worth after a third Cy Young? In terms of substance, Verlander is as strong as ever, throwing harder than he did 10 years ago and holding opponents to under 200 strikeout averages in each of his three primary pitches. His mid-90s fastball, thrown about half the time and mostly in the zone, was the second-best four by a 2022 starter, and his hard slider and slower curveball were elite weapons which were missing from bats. Verlander attacked hitters relentlessly, with just 29 walks against 185 strikeouts, and allowed just 12 homers after averaging 30 a season from 2016-19. His strikeout rate dipped last season, going from great to very good in what could be a potential red flag, but that’s also something that is often further improved by surgery. If any 40-year-old can get a three-year contract, it’s him. Justin Verlander ➡️ Josh Donaldson ➡️ Sword ⚔️ 🎥 @PitchingNinja pic.twitter.com/Xe1lEL9sXL — The Athletic MLB (@TheAthleticMLB) October 20, 2022
4. Clayton Kershaw, LHP
Age in 2023: 35 Last Team: Dodgers Clayton Kershaw was a free agent last offseason and flirted with the hometown Texas Rangers before re-signing with the Dodgers in mid-March, agreeing to a one-year contract worth $17 million plus incentives. It’s hard to imagine the future Hall of Famer not ending up with the Dodgers again because he’s played his entire 15-year career in Los Angeles and because he’s still so good. Kershaw avoided the elbow problems that ended his 2021 season early, but he was limited to just 22 starts because of the back problems that have plagued him on an almost annual basis for nearly a decade. He hasn’t thrown 180 innings since 2015 and hasn’t topped 130 innings since 2019, and his fastball has dropped nearly five mph from its peak, averaging just 90.7 mph in 2022. And yet Kershaw still posted a 2.22 ERA with a sparkling 137-to-22 strikeout-to-walk ratio in 126 innings, numbers that most rookies would call a career year. It’s a credit to his pitching genius that diminished health and speed can’t keep him from sub-3.00 ERAs. Kershaw has thrown his fastball less than 40 percent of the time in back-to-back seasons, recurring as a slider-first pitcher. On a per-start basis, the three-time Cy Young winner remains elite — his 2.76 ERA since 2020 ranks seventh in MLB — but the goal now is 125 innings and playoff readiness. Verlander left Detroit at 34 and became a late-career legend for a second team, so maybe Kershaw doing the same shouldn’t be dismissed, but another one-year deal with the Dodgers makes sense for everyone involved. Clayton Kershaw, Wicked Sliders. 🤢 pic.twitter.com/xNLkWNNWbS — Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) October 13, 2022
5. Kodai Senga, RHP
Age in 2023: 30 Last Team: Hawks (Japan) One of the top players in Japan over the past decade, Kodai Senga is the wild card of this free agent class. Regardless of country or league, there’s rarely any certainty that star-level performances elsewhere will translate to MLB, and in that case the price to learn will be significant given Senga’s impressive resume through age 29 and the status of him as a completely free agent. Senga has a 2.42 ERA and 10.0 strikeouts per nine innings in 11 seasons in Japan, including a 1.96 ERA and 159 strikeouts in 148 innings last season. His relatively high walk rate is a potential red flag, but Senga’s raw stuff is billed as excellent, with a high-90s fastball that reaches triple digits, a very good forkball and two serviceable balls. Some scouting reports on Senga suggest that his best chance to dominate MLB could be as a two-game reliever, and perhaps that will become a fallback plan if his control issues prove difficult to overcome, but several teams likely see him as key to get great long term deals. He recently signed a five-year extension with the Fukuoka SoftBank Hawks, but included the opt-out to continue in the MLB. Kodai Senga, 98 mph Fastball and 83 mph Ghost Fork, Individual Pitches + Overlay (synchronized on release/tails).
