The Russian Navy is still holed up at its base in Crimea after a sweeping Ukrainian drone attack last week. On October 29, Ukraine fired 16 warplanes and naval drones at Russian ships in Sevastopol Bay, damaging at least one ship and prompting Russia to temporarily withdraw from the vaunted grain export deal in retaliation. According to a recent analysis by the US Naval Institute, the Russian fleet in the Black Sea was timid after the attack, which is the latest in a series of setbacks since the invasion in February. The Russian Black Sea Fleet has dwarfed the remnants of the Ukrainian Navy and should, by all accounts, be able to launch missiles and amphibious landings off the Ukrainian coast with relative impunity. But for all their strength on paper, the Russian navy has gone from disaster to disaster since the beginning of the war. In March, Ukraine hit a Russian landing ship in the port of Berdyansk with a ballistic missile, forcing the crew to destroy the vessel. Ukrainian forces also sank the Russian flagship Moskva with two anti-ship missiles in mid-April. Although not as spectacular as the sinking of a flagship, Ukrainian missiles and drones destroyed smaller Russian naval vessels throughout the conflict. Russia has a large navy, but its losses in the Black Sea are difficult to replace. Moscow cannot simply send more ships to the Black Sea, as Turkey controls the straits leading from the Black Sea to the Mediterranean and has the legal right to restrict access in time of war. Turkey’s refusal to let naval ships through means that the ships currently in place are all that Russia has in the short term, which is why the October 29 drone strike was so damaging. Ukraine was able to place a large number of explosive drones near Russia’s prized ships, including a Kilo-class submarine. While it is unclear how much damage was caused, the fact that some of the drones were able to penetrate Russian defenses makes it uncertain whether Russian ships are truly safe when not in port. The story continues This drone attack was the first time air and sea drones had been attacked simultaneously in this conflict, but both had been used in the region separately. Ukraine’s one-way attack drones, which have seen infrequent use since June against Russian military and oil facilities, targeted the headquarters of Russia’s Black Sea Fleet in mid-August. In September, a Ukrainian unmanned surface vessel (USV) washed up on a Crimean beach. The simultaneous use of both was an attempt to overwhelm Russian defenses and complicate future efforts to defend Crimea. USVs, even if they don’t end up doing much damage, are a tough problem for navies to deal with. In the Red Sea, Saudi Arabia has struggled to prevent USVs operated by Houthi rebels from reaching their ports. The need to defend ships and ports from cheap USVs and other fast attack craft is part of the reason the US Navy has invested so heavily in directed energy weapons and why the UK has procured Martlet missiles for its ships and helicopters. To make matters worse for Russia, Ukraine’s navy is slowly starting to grow again. Ukraine receives patrol boats from the United States and the Royal Navy trains Ukrainian sailors. The patrol boats are small and lightly armed, but can still assist the Ukrainian navy and Special Operations forces along Ukraine’s rivers and coastline. Given Ukraine’s unexpected successes at sea, its partners are likely to continue and increase their support. And given Russia’s struggles to adapt to new threats on land and sea, Moscow will struggle to counter the growing threat of Ukraine’s missiles, drones and new ships. Ukraine’s innovative use of missiles and drones to combat the Russian navy has made it challenging for Russia to operate at sea. The strategy helped Ukrainian soldiers and civilians on the ground while keeping the grain export deal alive. With no good options to deter future attacks and a corrosive grip on the Black Sea, the Russian navy will likely remain cautious. The US Naval Institute analysis notes that Russia’s smaller patrol vessels have recently been replaced by larger vessels capable of stopping attacks, and some vessels have been moved from Sevastopol to Novorossiysk, which is far from the fighting. The naval war is hardly won. Russia still has a much larger navy and can still launch missiles like the Kalibr at Ukrainian cities from its ships. Ukrainian missiles and drones may be able to seriously damage Russian ships, but sinking Russian ships will be difficult if Moscow decides to keep them out of range of Ukrainian missiles at sea and defend against drones when at sea. port. However, despite Russia’s advantages, it is unlikely that Putin and his admirals will find an easy answer to the Ukraine strikes anytime soon. Read more at The Daily Beast. Get the Daily Beast’s biggest scandals and scandals straight to your inbox. Register now. Stay informed and get unlimited access to the Daily Beast’s unparalleled reporting. Register now.
