Polish President Andrzej Duda said the rocket that killed two people in eastern Poland on Tuesday was likely fired by Ukrainian forces defending against a wave of Russian missiles and that the incident appeared to be an accident.
“There is no indication that this was a deliberate attack on Poland. Most likely, it was a Russian-made S-300 missile,” Duda said in a tweet on Wednesday. He later told a news conference that there was a “high probability” that it was an air defense missile from the Ukrainian side and that it may have fallen on Polish soil in an “accident” while intercepting incoming Russian missiles.
Duda’s comments were in line with those of two officials briefed on the initial US assessment, who told CNN that it appeared the missile came from Ukraine, even though it was Russian-made.
CNN has not confirmed the type of missile that landed in Poland. Both Russian and Ukrainian forces have used Russian-made munitions during the nine-month conflict, including the S-300 surface-to-air missile system, which Kyiv has deployed as part of its air defenses. These older generation weapon systems date back to when both Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union.
The missile landed outside the rural Polish village of Przewodow, about four miles (6.4 kilometers) west of the Ukrainian border on Tuesday afternoon, around the same time as Russia launched its largest ever wave of missile attacks on Ukrainian towns here and more than a month.
U.S. officials said Wednesday that the U.S. assessment is what President Joe Biden appeared to hint at in earlier remarks when he said it was “unlikely” the missile came from Russia. The intelligence assessments were discussed at an emergency meeting called by Biden on the sidelines of the G20 summit in Bali.
NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg also said there was no indication the incident was the result of a deliberate attack.
“Our preliminary analysis shows that the incident was likely caused by a Ukrainian air defense missile fired to defend Ukrainian territory from Russian cruise missile attacks,” Stoltenberg told a news conference after an emergency meeting of NATO ambassadors in Brussels on Wednesday.
“But let me be clear, it’s not Ukraine’s fault,” he said. “Russia bears ultimate responsibility as it continues its illegal war against Ukraine.”
Stoltenberg added that “we have no indication that Russia is preparing aggressive military actions against NATO.”
A joint statement after the G7 meeting was deliberately vague when it came to the incident, focusing much more on the dozens of Russian strikes that took place in the hours before the missile crossed into Poland.
The Associated Press reported on Wednesday that three US officials said preliminary assessments suggested the missile was fired by Ukrainian forces in an attempt to intercept an upcoming Russian strike. The officials spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss the matter publicly, according to the AP.
A spokesman for the US National Security Council declined to comment on the AP report. “We have no comment and will not confirm this report. As the President said today, we support Poland’s ongoing investigation to understand exactly what happened,” the spokesman said.
Earlier, Biden said preliminary information showed it was unlikely the missile that landed in Poland was fired by Russia after consultations with allies at the G20 Summit in Bali.
“I don’t want to say that [it was fired from Russia] until we fully investigate,” Biden continued. “It is unlikely in the orbiter’s mind that it was launched from Russia. But we’ll see.”
Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov said Wednesday that Russia had “nothing to do” with the missile incident in Poland and that some leaders made statements without understanding “what really happened.”
“The Poles had every opportunity to immediately report that they were talking about the wreckage of the S-300 air defense system missile. And, accordingly, all experts would have understood that this could not be a missile that has anything to do with the Russian Armed Forces,” Peskov said during a routine briefing with reporters.
“We are witnessing another hysterical frenzy of Russophobic reaction, which was not based on any real evidence.
“Senior leaders of different countries made statements without having a clue of what really happened.”
These older generation weapon systems date back to when both Russia and Ukraine were part of the Soviet Union.
In a statement to CNN on Wednesday, an adviser to Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky did not directly deny reports that the missile came from Ukraine, but emphasized Russia’s responsibility for starting the war.
“There is only one logic to follow,” said Mykhailo Podolyak, adviser to the head of the Office of the Ukrainian President. “The war was started and is being waged by Russia. Russia is mass attacking Ukraine with cruise missiles. Russia has turned the eastern part of the European continent into an unpredictable battlefield. Intent, means of execution, risks, escalation – everything comes from Russia alone.”
“And there can be no other explanation for any missile incident here. Thus, when an aggressive country launches a deliberate, massive missile attack against a major country on the European continent with its antiquated Soviet-era weapons (Kh-class missiles), sooner or later the tragedy occurs on other states’ territories as well.”
A spokesman for the Ukrainian Air Force told national television on Wednesday that it would “do everything” to facilitate a Polish investigation into the strike.
“What happened was the Air Defense Force repelled the air attack,” said Yuriy Ikhnat, a spokesman for the Air Force Command in Ukraine. “What happened next – whether it was a Russian missile, whether it was the debris from both rockets that fell – that needs to be inspected at the scene. And that’s what’s happening right now.”
He added that “what happened yesterday is obviously the consequences of war.”
Russia launched a massive barrage of 85 missiles into Ukraine on Tuesday, primarily targeting energy infrastructure. The bombing caused blackouts in cities and cut power to 10 million people across the country.
Zelensky later confirmed on Twitter that power had been restored to eight million consumers. “Supply to 8 million consumers has already been restored. Electricians and repairmen will be working through the night. Thank you all!”
Ukrainians across the country were expected to experience further scheduled and unscheduled power outages on Wednesday.
“Nov. 15 mass missile attacks on energy infrastructure and cold weather further complicated the situation with the electricity system,” state energy company NPC Ukrenergo said in a statement.
“Please prepare for longer power outages: stock up on water, charge your devices and power banks in advance to stay in touch with loved ones.”
