Current situation
The center of Nicole is now reaching the northwestern Bahamas with maximum sustained winds of 70 mph. Nicole’s large wind field means tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) extend well to the west, north and east of this center, including along the Florida east coast, according to the National Hurricane Center’s analysis below. Wind gusts in excess of 40 mph are now occurring along and near Florida’s Atlantic coast. A few gusts over 50 mph have been reported at Lake Fort Worth Pier and Sewalls Point. Large, strong waves and coastal flooding affect much of the southeast coast. Water levels topped about 2 feet above normal along Florida’s Atlantic coast at high tide Wednesday morning. Flooding was reported around homes on Anastasia Island near St. Augustine and on some streets in West Palm Beach on Wednesday. The Flagler Beach Pier, damaged during Hurricane Ian, suffered additional damage from crashing waves Wednesday morning. Storm flooding was also captured on video Wednesday morning in Marsh Harbour, in the Bahamas’ Abaco Islands, which was hit by Hurricane Dorian in 2019. Minor flooding was also reported around high tide Wednesday morning in Charleston, South Carolina. Radar shows showers continuing to push into Florida, with heavier showers in the Bahamas pushing west.
Warnings and watches
A hurricane warning has been issued for areas near Florida’s Atlantic coast from Boca Raton to the Flagler – Volusia County line, including Melbourne and Vero Beach. This means hurricane conditions are expected in these areas tonight through early Thursday morning. Hurricane warnings are also in effect for areas of the northwestern Bahamas, including Grand Bahama Island, where hurricane conditions are expected today through tonight. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for a wide area of south, central and north Florida to parts of coastal Georgia and South Carolina. Tropical storm conditions are either continuing or will develop in these areas later today or tonight. Cities under tropical storm warnings include Orlando, Fort Myers, Tampa and Tallahassee in Florida as well as Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina. A storm surge warning is in effect from North Palm Beach, Florida, to Glynn County, Georgia, a stretch of the St. Johns in northeast Florida from Georgetown to where it empties into the Atlantic Ocean north of Jacksonville Beach and along a portion of Florida’s Gulf Coast from Pasco County north to Wakulla County. This means that a dangerous, life-threatening wave of water along the coast is expected in these areas. A storm surge watch extends north of Glynn County, Georgia, to Charleston County, South Carolina, south of North Palm Beach, Florida, to Hallandale Beach, Florida, as well as Franklin County in the Panhandle. This means that storm surge flooding is possible in these areas.
Prognostic track, Intensity
Nicole is expected to become a Category 1 hurricane before making landfall along Florida’s Atlantic coast sometime late tonight or early Thursday morning. However, the effects already arrive long before this decline occurs, as we will detail below. Nicole will then curl northward near or over Florida before being picked up by a cold front that turns the storm northeast over the southeastern states on Friday. The remaining energy and moisture from Nicole will work with this cold front to squeeze heavy rain across the East Coast through Saturday. Current state, forecast path (The red shaded area indicates the likely path of the tropical cyclone’s center. It is important to note that the impacts (particularly heavy rain, high gustiness, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually extend beyond its predicted path . )
Impact Prediction
Below is a breakdown of what to expect from Nicole. Note that Nicole’s large size means that her hits will spread away from her center, arriving earlier and lasting longer than passing through her center. Storm, coastal flooding, beach erosion Persistent onshore winds will lead to coastal flooding along portions of the Southeast coast from Florida to the Carolinas through Thursday, or in some areas, Friday. This coastal flooding at low tide will increase each day and peak as storm surge as Nicole’s center approaches early Thursday morning. The National Hurricane Center’s peak storm forecast, if it occurs during low tide, is shown below. Given the coastal flooding at multiple high tide cycles and waves crashing over the storm surge, extensive beach erosion and some infrastructure damage is expected along the east coast of Florida and along parts of the Georgia coast. This is especially true for the eastern Florida coast that was damaged by Hurricane Ian in late September. Some moderate to major coastal flooding is also possible as far south as South Carolina, including Charleston, where coastal flooding is expected to peak at high tide mid-Thursday. Extensive street flooding is possible in the city during this highest storm tide. One exception to this general scenario will be a portion of the Gulf Coast of western Florida. Tides will start much lower than normal due to offshore winds. But by late Thursday, water levels could rise quickly as winds shift onshore once Nicole’s center moves north. This may lead to some coastal flooding and storm surge in the areas shown on the map below peaking Thursday night and continuing into Friday. (NHC peak storm surge forecast if the surge reaches high tide.) winds Gale-force winds are already strengthening on the southeast coast. Tropical storm force winds (39 mph or greater) will continue to spread across much of the Florida peninsula through tonight. Hurricane conditions (74 mph or greater winds) are expected to reach the hurricane warning area in eastern Florida by tonight. These strong winds are expected to knock out currents and down trees, especially near the coast. While Nicole will have weakened, some strong wind gusts are possible across parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia on Friday. Nicole’s remnant partnering with a cold front and stronger jet-stream energy could produce strong wind gusts Friday night into Saturday morning in the Northeast, from the Delmarva Peninsula and Chesapeake Bay north to New England, particularly near the coast . Those wind gusts could cause tree damage and at least some power outages Friday through Saturday. (This map depicts the timing and potential aerial extent of tropical storm-force winds. While some areas may experience hurricane-force winds, the onset of tropical storm-force winds will make storm preparations difficult. ) rainfall The heaviest rain will first reach Florida by Wednesday, then spread north into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas Thursday through Friday. The heaviest rainfall is expected in areas of central and northern Florida, including some areas flooded by Hurricane Ian’s rain. Parts of the St. Johns River are still above flood stage after Ian’s rain about six weeks ago. According to the NWS Southeast River Forecast Center, the St. Johns slow decline in recent weeks after Ian will transition to slow rising levels for a short period after Nicole’s precipitation. Nicole’s moisture combined with an approaching cold front will lead to rain for the Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and Northeast Friday through Saturday. A widespread rainfall of 1 to 5 inches is possible from parts of southern Florida into the Carolinas, Georgia, mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with locally higher amounts. This could lead to localized flash flooding and some river flooding, particularly in the Appalachians and adjacent foothills, as well as parts of the Northeast. tornadoes As with most landfalling storms, a few isolated tornadoes and damaging storm-force wind gusts are also possible in Nicole’s rainfall Wednesday through Friday. Here is a look at the schedule. -Wednesday-Wednesday night: east and central Florida -Thursday-Thursday night: northeast Florida, southeast Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina and southern North Carolina. -Friday-Friday Night: central and eastern mid-Atlantic Carolina. Nicole could become only the fourth November hurricane to make landfall in the U.S. mainland in records dating back to the mid-19th century, and the first to do so in 37 years. (MORE: A tropical system and winter storm in the US at the same time is not surprising) Check back with us on weather.com for important updates on Nicole. The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report breaking news about weather, the environment and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
