Nicole’s center made landfall just south of Vero Beach, Florida, at 3 a.m. EST. Maximum sustained winds were 75 mph, making Nicole a Category 1 hurricane. Now that Nicole is inland, it has weakened back into a strong tropical storm. Nicole is just the fourth November hurricane to make landfall in the US mainland in records dating back to the mid-19th century, and the first to do so in 37 years.
Current situation
Radar shows bands of heavy rain spinning across north and central Florida this morning. A tornado watch is in effect until 1 p.m. ET for northeast Florida and far southeast Georgia. (MORE: Latest News | Photos) Nicole’s large wind field means that tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) extend well to the west, north and east of this center, including much of peninsular Florida, coastal Georgia and coastal South Carolina, according to with the National Hurricane Analysis Center below. Winds have gusted to 70 mph or more along Florida’s Atlantic coast, including Playalinda Beach (77 mph), Cape Canaveral (75 mph), Melbourne (70 mph) and Daytona Beach (70 mph). Wind gusts over 60 mph were reported in Orlando. A NOAA tide gauge reported major coastal flooding this morning in Port Canaveral, Florida, from a storm surge of more than 5 feet.
Warnings and watches
All hurricane warnings have been discontinued now that Nicole has weakened to a tropical storm. Tropical storm warnings are in effect for a wide area of south, central and north Florida, south Georgia and the South Carolina Lowcountry. Cities under tropical storm warnings include Orlando, Fort Myers, Tampa and Tallahassee in Florida as well as Savannah, Georgia and Charleston, South Carolina. A storm surge warning is in effect from Jupiter Inlet, Florida, to Glynn County, Georgia, a stretch of the St. Johns in northeast Florida from Georgetown to where it empties into the Atlantic Ocean north of Jacksonville Beach and along a portion of Florida’s Gulf Coast from Pasco County north to Wakulla County. This means that a dangerous, life-threatening wave of water along the coast is expected in these areas.
Impact Prediction
Nicole is forecast to continue weakening today as it curves northwest over Florida. It will then be picked up by a cold front that turns the storm northeast over the southeastern states on Friday. The energy and moisture left over from Nicole will work with this cold front to bring heavy rain and gusty winds to the East Coast through Saturday. Current state, forecast path (The red shaded area indicates the likely path of the tropical cyclone’s center. It is important to note that the impacts (particularly heavy rain, high gustiness, coastal flooding, winds) with any tropical cyclone usually extend beyond its predicted path . ) Below is a breakdown of what to expect from Nicole. Note that Nicole’s large size means that her hits will spread away from her center, arriving earlier and lasting longer than passing through her center. Storm, coastal flooding, beach erosion Persistent onshore winds will lead to coastal flooding along portions of the Southeast coast from Florida to the Carolinas through Thursday, or in some areas, Friday. The National Hurricane Center’s peak storm forecast, if it occurs during low tide, is shown below. Given the coastal flooding at multiple high tide cycles and waves crashing over the storm surge, extensive beach erosion and some infrastructure damage is expected along the east coast of Florida and along parts of the Georgia coast. This is especially true for the eastern Florida coast that was damaged by Hurricane Ian in late September. Some moderate to major coastal flooding is also possible as far south as South Carolina, including Charleston, where coastal flooding is expected to peak at high tide midday Thursday. Extensive street flooding is possible in the city during this highest storm tide. One exception to this general scenario will be a portion of the Gulf Coast of western Florida. Tides will start much lower than normal due to offshore winds. But by late Thursday, water levels could rise quickly as winds shift onshore once Nicole’s center moves north. This may lead to some coastal flooding and storm surge in the areas shown on the map below peaking Thursday night and continuing into Friday. (NHC peak storm surge forecast if the surge reaches high tide.) Tropical storm-force winds (39 mph or greater) will continue to spread across much of the Florida peninsula on Thursday. These strong winds are expected to knock out currents and down trees, especially near the coast. While Nicole will have weakened, some strong wind gusts are possible in parts of Georgia, the Carolinas and Virginia through Friday. Nicole’s remnant partnering with a cold front and stronger jet-stream energy could produce strong wind gusts Friday night into Saturday morning in the Northeast, from the Delmarva Peninsula and Chesapeake Bay north to New England, particularly near the coast . Those wind gusts could lead to scattered tree damage and at least some power outages Friday through Saturday. rainfall Heavy rain has already reached Florida and is expected to spread north into parts of Georgia and the Carolinas by Friday. The heaviest rainfall is expected in areas of central and northern Florida, including some areas flooded by Hurricane Ian’s rain. Parts of the St. Johns River are still above flood stage after Ian’s rain about six weeks ago. According to the NWS, the St. Johns has been falling slowly in recent weeks after Ian will transition to a slow rise and then steady levels above flood stage after Nicole’s rain. Some minor river flooding is also forecast along the Peace and Little Manatee rivers in west Florida, which experienced major flooding during Ian. But this flood will be nowhere near the magnitude of Ian’s flood. Nicole’s moisture combined with an approaching cold front will lead to rain for the Appalachians, mid-Atlantic and Northeast Friday through Saturday. A widespread rainfall of 1 to 5 inches is possible from parts of southern Florida into the Carolinas, Georgia, mid-Atlantic and Northeast, with locally higher amounts. This could lead to localized flash flooding and some river flooding, particularly in the Appalachians and adjacent foothills, as well as parts of the Northeast. tornadoes As with most landfalling storms, some isolated tornadoes and damaging storm-force wind gusts are also possible in Nicole’s rainfall Thursday through Friday. Here is a look at the schedule. -Thursday-Thursday night: northeast Florida, southeast Georgia, central and coastal South Carolina and southern North Carolina. -Friday-Friday Night: central and eastern mid-Atlantic Carolina.
Storm recap so far
Nicole became a hurricane Wednesday night while making landfall over Grand Bahama. A wind gust of 61 mph was recorded on the island Wednesday afternoon. Large, strong waves and coastal flooding affect much of the southeast coast. Water levels topped about 2 feet above normal along Florida’s Atlantic coast at high tide Wednesday morning. Flooding was reported around homes on Anastasia Island, near St. Augustine, and on some streets in West Palm Beach on Wednesday. A sea wall breached by storm surge in St. Lucie near Jensen Beach. Beach erosion has undermined a structure and damaged a hotel parking lot in Daytona Beach Shores. Storm flooding was also captured on video Wednesday morning in Marsh Harbour, in the Bahamas’ Abaco Islands, which was hit by Hurricane Dorian in 2019. Winds gusted up to 60 mph in Hope Town, according to the Bahamas Meteorological Department. Minor flooding was also reported around high tide Wednesday morning in Charleston, South Carolina. Check back with us on weather.com for important updates on Nicole. The Weather Company’s primary journalistic mission is to report breaking news about weather, the environment and the importance of science in our lives. This story does not necessarily represent the position of our parent company, IBM.
