Harry Engels Getty Images Sport | Getty Images A new front of tensions between Russia and NATO has opened when one of the members of the Western military alliance, Lithuania, has banned the transit of certain goods coming from Russia to the Kaliningrad enclave in the Baltic Sea. Russia has vowed to retaliate against Lithuania’s “hostile actions”, warning of “serious” consequences, while NATO members have reiterated their support for the country. The following is a brief guide to what’s happening and why it matters as the Russia-Ukraine conflict continues in the background.
What happened?
Lithuania said last week it would ban the transit of some EU-approved goods from Russia through its territory to the Russian enclave of Kaliningrad. The government said the embargo would apply to all EU-approved goods coming from the mainland by rail, effectively blocking the passage of metals, coal, construction materials and high-tech products into the Russian seaport. Lithuania said its decision was made after consulting the European Commission, the EU’s executive branch, and imposing sanctions on Russia following an unprovoked invasion of Ukraine on 24 February. Russia responded to Lithuania, a former Soviet republic, by calling the move an “unprecedented” and “hostile” act, with its foreign ministry issuing a statement on Tuesday stating that “if in the near future the transit of cargo between the Kaliningrad region “and the rest of the territory of the Russian Federation through Lithuania has not been fully restored, then Russia reserves the right to take measures to protect its national interests.”
What is Kaliningrad?
Kaliningrad is a small Russian enclave located in the Baltic Sea between Lithuania and Poland. It accommodates about 487,000 people and covers an area of about 86 square miles. Once part of the German Empire, it was occupied by Soviet troops from Nazi Germany in 1945 and has remained in Russian hands ever since, being an important seaport for Russia, allowing direct access to the Baltic Sea. Indeed, the Kaliningrad region (or province) functions as the headquarters of the Russian Baltic fleet. The fleet is conducting regular military exercises in the Baltic Sea, having completed 10 days of exercises on June 19, in which 60 warships and 10,000 military personnel participated. On April 15, 2022, an obsolete border crossing point to Russia appears in Nida, Lithuania. Russia’s Kaliningrad enclave, on the Baltic Sea coast, is located between NATO members Lithuania and Poland and is the Baltic coast, the most strategic port for transport and trade. Paulius Peleckis | Getty Images News Getty Images Lithuania’s ban on the transit of some EU-ratified goods, announced last Friday and implemented on Saturday, has caused panic in markets in Kaliningrad. The governor of the region, Anton Alikhanov, insisted that Russia would increase the number of cargo ships carrying goods from St. Petersburg to the enclave for the rest of the year.
What could happen next?
It is uncertain how Moscow will react to Lithuania’s move. On Monday, President Vladimir Putin’s spokesman Dmitry Peshkov called the move “illegal” and said “this decision is truly unprecedented.” “The situation is more than serious … We need a serious in-depth analysis to work out our response,” he added. The Lithuanian Foreign Ministry issued a statement on Monday saying that “the transit of passengers and goods not subject to sanctions to and from the Kaliningrad region through Lithuania continues unabated.” He added that Lithuania “has not imposed unilateral, individual or additional restrictions on transit” and that it is consistently implementing EU sanctions. EU foreign policy chief Josep Borrell also backed Lithuania on Monday, saying he was concerned about retaliation while defending Vilnius’s position. “I certainly always worry about Russian retaliation,” he said, but insisted there was no “blockade.” “Lithuania has not taken unilateral national restrictions and is only applying EU sanctions,” he said, adding that any reports to Russia that Lithuania was applying its own sanctions were “pure propaganda”. Timothy Ash, chief strategist at BlueBay Asset Management, said on Tuesday that “it is fair to say that Kaliningrad is a strategic imperative for Russia,” noting that its defense and preservation are certain. “Russia will definitely react, the only question is what will it be?” [and] “What could Russia do militarily?” “A ground attack to cross a corridor through Lithuania would be a direct attack on Lithuania that would trigger the NATO Article 5 defense. Putin knows this – this is a war with NATO. Can Putin withstand that when “It’s struggling to meet even its much-reduced strategy. It should also launch an attack through Belarus, expanding its supply lines and splitting its forces.” Ash suggested that Russia could seek to use its significant naval assets in the Baltic Sea to impose some sort of embargo on Lithuanian trade, although again this would be seen as a huge escalation by both NATO and “It would then be a fine line if it would trigger a NATO Article 5 defense,” he said.
Why does it matter?
Tensions between Russia and NATO have already escalated as a result of the war in Ukraine, and Lithuania’s move has exacerbated them, possibly putting a NATO country (and the entire alliance) on the line for a direct confrontation with Russia. A key pillar of the NATO alliance is the concept of collective defense: Known as Article 5, it means that if one member is attacked, it is considered an attack on the whole group with all members committed to protecting each other. While NATO is helping Ukraine fight the Russian invasion by sending a wide range of military equipment and weapons as well as humanitarian aid, NATO has repeatedly stated that it will not send troops to the country as it does not want a direct nuclear confrontation. energy Russia. Russia should carefully calibrate its response to Lithuania, knowing that any immediate attack would be perceived as an attack on all NATO members by the organization. Vehicles of the German Armed Forces of the Bundeswehr from the Griffin barracks arrive at the Battalion of the NATO enhanced presence battle group in Lithuania in Rukla, Lithuania on 17 February 2022. Petras Maloukas AFP | Getty Images For their part, Lithuania’s NATO allies have said they will stand by the country after the Kremlin’s threats. “Lithuania is a member of the NATO alliance and we adhere to the commitments we have made in the NATO alliance and this of course includes a commitment in Article 5 which is the foundation of the NATO alliance,” said US State Department spokesman Ned Pryce. he said during the daily press conference. “Lithuania has been a stable partner, we stand by NATO, we stand by our allies in NATO and Lithuania,” Price added.
