Immediately after Tuesday’s blast, Polish President Andrzej Duda said the explosive that hit Przewodow, a village of hundreds of people, was “most likely Russian-made” as the investigation was still ongoing. His statement shocked the world and NATO leaders expressed their will to defend every inch of territory in the world’s largest military alliance, of which Poland is a member. Military analysts took to social media to suggest this could be a time the alliance invokes Article 4, a consultation between NATO countries when a member feels threatened, or Article 5, when an attack is considered violence against the entire alliance, allowing NATO to decide on the action it deems appropriate to protect its members. On the same day, Russia hit critical Ukrainian infrastructure with a wave of missile strikes. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy called the explosion in Poland “a very significant escalation” and said: “We must act.” But NATO and Western nations, including the United States, have since allayed fears, suggesting the missile was a stray, likely part of Ukraine’s air defense systems. However, they said Russia bears overall responsibility as the aggressor and instigator of the war. NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg kept a low profile throughout the episode and did not blame Russia as he waited for Polish intelligence. A day after the explosion, Duda joined his Western allies in saying that the explosion was probably a Ukrainian accident and did not invoke any NATO articles. Stoltenberg said a preliminary analysis suggested a Ukrainian air defense missile landed in Poland and was fired to defend Ukrainian territory from Russian cruise missile attacks. “But let me be clear, it’s not Ukraine’s fault,” he said, stressing that Russia is still ultimately responsible. Jim Townsend, US deputy assistant secretary of defense for Europe and NATO under former President Barack Obama, welcomed NATO’s approach. “I think NATO did a great job of being very entertaining and careful, putting together a story based on facts,” he told Al Jazeera. “I think the US was like that too in an environment where everything was very murky with a lot of conflicting information out there.” “The conflicting information was mainly received from the press and there was a real frenzy,” he said. Alexander Lanoszka, an assistant professor of international relations at Canada’s University of Waterloo, told Al Jazeera that the incident demonstrates that “NATO territory cannot be purely isolated from the air defense challenges facing Ukraine.” But an immediate military intervention against Russia “is very dangerous,” he said, “because of the legitimate concerns of states about nuclear escalation. However, they may drop some of the disagreements they had about providing certain platforms to Ukraine.” If NATO had concluded that the missile was Russian and the explosion was a deliberate attack, the most likely response would have been “an increase in that military assistance,” Lanoska said. “Most likely with anti-aircraft defense, but perhaps with surface-to-surface missiles of the MGM-140 Army tactical missile system, which Ukraine has long coveted,” he added. Speaking from the G20 summit in Bali, Indonesia, US President Joe Biden said it was “unlikely” the missile was launched by Russia. His restraint earned him rare praise from the Kremlin. However, Russia criticized some Western countries, especially Poland, for their initial responses. “We are witnessing another hysterical, frenzied Russophobic reaction, which was not based on real facts,” Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov told reporters. The blast came a day before NATO was due to convene a virtual meeting of the Contact Group on the Defense of Ukraine, in which participants would decide on future military aid packages. “Whatever the actual course of events that led to the tragedy in this Polish village,” Lanoszka said, “it took place on a day when Russia launched a massive barrage of missiles across Ukraine. “Whenever Russia suffered a highly visible loss on the battlefield, it tended to retaliate by launching a major air strike against Ukrainian cities. “Part of the strategy is to create a state of terror that will have a psychological effect on the Ukrainian population so that, the theory goes, they will be more willing to accept Russian terms.” Harry Nedelkou, director of geopolitics at Rasmussen Global and head of the Ukraine Advisory Service, also emphasized that the incident occurred on the day “when a series of Russian missiles hit several Ukrainian cities with the aim of terrorizing civilians and targeting power grids.” Ukraine, in turn, used its air defense systems. So, whichever way you look at it, context matters.” Townsend said that with Moscow’s campaign intensifying, the West and NATO should focus on sending more air defense systems to Poland and countries bordering Russia and Ukraine. “They may need more Patriot [missile] systems or something like that, because there could be other missiles on the way as the war continues,” he said. “Next time it might be a real Russian missile and we have to be ready for that.” Speaking to reporters in Brussels, Stoltenberg said the explosion in Poland underscored the importance of further strengthening the alliance’s eastern flank and supporting Ukraine. “At least in the next winter weeks, air defense systems will help Ukraine because we already see that the country’s air defenses are able to target many Russian missiles,” Nedelkou said. “So now it’s just about closing that gap and making sure the Russian missiles don’t hit their targets.” Meanwhile, as NATO nations continue to support Poland in its investigation, Townsend said he hopes some sort of “future action report” will be available detailing the entire investigation process and the way forward. “Quite early on, NATO nations decided to remain prudent and cautious every step of the way in gathering evidence,” he told Al Jazeera. “The alliance has done a good job in handling this crisis, but many lessons are also being learned as NATO moves forward in managing this war and supporting Ukraine.” “So a study to see what NATO did right and where more work needs to be done to prevent future incidents like this could be useful,” he said. For now, Ukraine has requested access to the area where the missile fell, which Poland will likely grant. By late Tuesday night, Zelensky claimed the missile was “a message from Russia to the G20 summit.” As Poland and other nations such as Latvia have been quick to blame Russia, “this incident further reinforces Russia’s narrative that the West is ‘pushing for World War III,’” Kamil Zwolski, associate professor of international politics, told Al Jazeera at the University of Southampton. . “But Russia’s reaction was completely predictable.”
