Under constant shelling from a Ukrainian counter-offensive that began on August 29, Russian troops at risk of encirclement were ordered to withdraw from the city on Wednesday. Their retreat marks a major victory for Kyiv in the battle for southeastern Ukraine, one that robs Moscow of its biggest military achievement of the war and changes the calculus for both sides as the conflict heads into winter. Ukrainian and Western officials have speculated for weeks that a Russian withdrawal from the city, strategic for its proximity to Crimea, was imminent, and have been quick to urge caution about the consequences of Moscow’s retreat while downplaying hopes that it could to trigger a rapid advance. . But analysts said control of the city would widen Kiev’s options to inflict more damage on Russia’s reduced invasion targets and its ability to hold the territory it still controls. “Kherson is important to both sides,” said a Western intelligence official. Even if Kherson is quickly evacuated, it is highly unlikely to trigger the destruction of the Russian lines. Retreating from the city, which is located on the northwest (or right) bank of the Dnipro River near the Black Sea delta, Russia aims to strengthen its defenses on the other side of the river, where it has been building defensive lines for weeks, bolstered by natural defenses such as canals and wet, marshy ground.
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Therefore, Western officials expect that while Ukraine will be able to recapture the northwest bank of the Dnipro by the end of November, Russia will be able to hold the other side. Speaking at an event in New York, the chairman of the US Joint Chiefs of Staff, Mark Milley, estimated that Russia had up to 30,000 troops north of the Dnipro in that area. “It’s going to take them days and maybe even weeks to pull those forces south of that river,” he said. Beyond its symbolic value as the only provincial capital captured by Russia in its more than eight-month invasion, Kherson has great value as a strategic location from which Ukraine can recalibrate its counteroffensive. The greater Kherson region connects mainland Ukraine with the Russian-held Crimean peninsula, and the city is about 100 kilometers from the isthmus that provides Russia with a narrow land corridor to resupply its troops from its major bases there. That would put three major roads on the land bridge and a number of Russian logistics sites and munitions dumps within range of Ukraine’s Western-supplied precision-guided missile system — threatening a critical supply route that has fueled Russia’s war effort since peninsula. Kherson province on the right bank of the Dnipro River is “strategically important from a military point of view, as it gives us firepower control of the roads from Crimea that are used as supply lines by the Russians,” said Serhiy Kuzan, an adviser to the defense ministry. of Ukraine. . “It will be a very big blow to the Russian forces.” That proximity to Crimea could also lead Russia to shift more forces south to protect the approach to the annexed peninsula, territory from which President Vladimir Putin could never retreat: the most important his military conquest of his rule for more than two decades. Crimea is also home to the Russian Black Sea Fleet. Kherson, seized in March, “is the only target that Russia has achieved among all its plans,” said Ben Wallace, the UK defense secretary. “And now they’ve given up. Which should raise the question in the Kremlin: what was all this for, all these lost Russian lives?” Military analysts said how Russia withdraws will be key to Moscow’s long-term prospects in southeastern Ukraine. A Ukrainian counteroffensive in northeastern Ukraine in September triggered a chaotic retreat, decimating Russia’s lines and military capabilities. “If Russia can withdraw its units without heavy casualties, it will likely be in a stronger position to maintain the existing front lines,” said Rob Lee, a senior fellow at the US-based Institute for Foreign Policy Research. “For this [how] the withdrawal that takes place is critical.” Thursday’s development comes as the US assessed that both sides had suffered heavy casualties. Milley said more than 100,000 Russian soldiers were killed and wounded in Ukraine, while Kyiv likely suffered similar losses. Ukraine has informed its allies that it plans to proceed slowly and carefully as its troops move to retake Kherson, according to a Western diplomat, wary of Russian troops who may remain in the city and the biggest threat from its other side. river. Ukrainian officials cautioned on Wednesday about the reality of the Russian withdrawal, fearing a trap. As he announced the planned retreat, Sergei Surovykin, who was appointed commander of the Russian invasion force last month, claimed that Russia had indeed successfully repelled Ukrainian attacks and inflicted significant casualties on Kiev’s troops. Surovikin said the withdrawal would “free up forces and equipment to be used to take actions, including of an offensive nature, in other areas where the operation is being conducted.” Russian commanders “clearly made a decision that they wanted to move behind physical borders [of the river]Wallace said. “A perfectly reasonable measure.” Kuzan said that while Russia has “already said goodbye to the city of Kherson as an administrative center” by evacuating its civilian personnel and officials in recent weeks, it has simultaneously boosted troop levels around the city and along the front line in the west. side of Dnipro. “Their best ground forces remained. But they moved their artillery to the eastern side of the Dnipro River, from where they can reach the front lines,” Kuzan said. Recommended Even if the conflict in southeastern Ukraine sinks to a stalemate this winter, as some Western officials have suggested, the recapture of Kherson will give Kyiv leverage as it presses Western governments to increase arms and ammunition supplies and financial support. “It is encouraging to see how the brave Ukrainian forces are able to liberate more Ukrainian territory, the victories, the gains made by the Ukrainian armed forces belong to the brave, courageous Ukrainian soldiers,” NATO Secretary General Jens Stoltenberg said on Wednesday. “But of course the support they get from the UK, from NATO allies and partners is also essential. . . We will continue to support Ukraine.” Additional reporting by John Paul Rathbone in London and Max Seddon in Riga
