A week after saying there might be a window for peace talks to end the war in Ukraine, the top US general laid out a comprehensive catalog of Russia’s failures and suggested negotiations – if they were to take place – would be conducted from a position of strength for Kyiv.
Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff General Mark Milley said the Russian military is “hurting really bad” after nearly nine months of war in which the Kremlin has not achieved any of its goals. The Ukrainians have racked up “success after success,” Milley said, while the Russians “have failed every time.”
These setbacks, Milley suggested, coming on top of Ukraine’s recent liberation of Kherson, may even allow Ukraine to push for what it is unlikely to achieve militarily: the withdrawal of Russian forces.
“There can be a political solution when the Russians withdraw politically,” Milley told a news conference on Wednesday. “You want to negotiate at a time when you are strong and your opponent is weak. And it is possible, maybe, that there will be a political solution. All I’m saying is that there is a possibility.”
He spoke after a meeting of the allies that make up the Ukraine Contact Group and after the leaders of Poland and NATO said the missile that killed two people on Polish soil on Tuesday was likely fired by Ukrainian forces defending their country from a barrage of Russian raids. and that the incident appeared to be an accident. Defense Secretary Lloyd Austin, speaking at the same press conference, said the US had not seen any information so far that “contradicted” Poland’s “preliminary assessment”.
Milley appeared to be making a concerted effort to present his position on the state of the war, a week after he appeared to push for negotiations amid front line stabilization and a possible winter lull in fighting in comments that upset some allies and members of his . his own administration. Speaking in New York last Wednesday, Milley said both Russia and Ukraine should realize that military victory is impossible to achieve and that a negotiated end to the conflict would end the suffering of war.
“When there is an opportunity for negotiation, when peace can be achieved, take it,” Milley said at the time.
Those remarks forced the Biden administration to reassure Ukraine that there was no change in the U.S. position to allow the country to decide its own future or press Kyiv for negotiations.
Austin underscored that position Wednesday, standing next to Milley at the news conference. “When is a good time to negotiate? We have repeatedly said that this will be decided by the Ukrainians, not us.”
Still, Milley presented the realities of the fight that fell, with winter already entering the battlefields of Ukraine. Russia has knocked out parts of Ukraine’s energy grid and infrastructure, leaving many homes without power or water. Ukraine’s military has mounted successful counterattacks in the east and south, but front lines are stabilizing, Milley said, and fighting tends to slow down in the winter.
Russia’s mobilization efforts have also given them more manpower for the war, even if their troops arrive poorly equipped and with little to no training. The chances of Ukraine achieving the ultimate military victory of pushing Russia out of the country “are not high, militarily,” he said.
This time around, Milley was more cautious about the negotiations, implicitly acknowledging that the chances of Russian President Vladimir Putin and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky reaching any kind of deal still appear very high.
“So if there’s a slowdown in the actual tactical conflict, if that happens, then that might become a window, possibly — it might not — for a political solution, or at least the beginnings of talks to start a political solution,” he said. .
But a day after Russia launched perhaps its biggest ever barrage of missiles against Ukraine, the US and the West made clear they were preparing for a longer conflict in which Kyiv still needs air defenses and ammunition for the fight ahead.
“We will be there as long as it takes to keep Ukraine free,” Milley said.
