In the last two days, the Russians have advanced on several villages south of Lysychansk, although they have not suffered any casualties from Ukrainian artillery fire. Indeed, the Ukrainian army claims that some regular groups of Russian battalions are consolidating or withdrawing to restore their combat capabilities. The Institute for War Studies, in its latest daily analysis of the battlefield, says the Russian discovery from the south means that “they may be able to threaten Lysychansk in the coming days by avoiding a difficult reverse crossing of the Siverskyi River. Donets ». The settlements, which Ukrainian officials confirmed as missing on Wednesday, are all located on the west bank of the Siverskyi Donets River, 10 kilometers from the southern suburbs of the city. “The Russians are approaching Lysychansk, surrounded by nearby towns. The city is being bombed by aircraft,” said Serhiy Hayday, head of the Luhansk regional military administration. Hayday admitted it was “difficult” in the area south of Lysychansk. “The enemy entered Toskivka, which allowed him to increase fire in other settlements.” He said Russian forces were established in several villages immediately south of Lysychansk, including Ustynivka, Pidlisne and Myrna Dolyna, and were advancing on Bila Hora. “It is not easy for our soldiers to defend themselves,” he said. Throughout its campaign, Russia used heavy bombardment tactics before attempting to seize territory. Hayday’s comments suggest that Ukrainian defenses around Lysychansk have begun to succumb to a much larger Russian firepower after weeks of bombing. Ukrainian forces continue to fight on the outskirts of the neighboring town of Severodonetsk and adjacent communities – and are taking advantage of the higher ground in Lysychansk. But their already endangered supply lines are becoming weaker and the enormous size of the Russian firepower is destroying the defensive positions. The setbacks suffered in recent days, after weeks of resolute resistance, mark perhaps the most difficult week for the Ukrainian army since the surrender of the last defenders to Mariupol. The attacks near Lysychansk coincided with renewed Russian efforts to cut off the highway west to Bakhmut, a critical communication line for Ukrainians. In some places, Russian forces are a few kilometers from the highway. The Ukrainian defenses of Severodonetsk and Lysychansk have consumed the firepower of many Russian units and are hampering their efforts to make progress in the neighboring Donetsk region. However, the Russians can still ask for reserves held near nearby southwestern Russia – while some of Ukraine’s best units are severely depleted by months of rocket, missile, artillery and air strikes. But if the Ukrainians decide to dig around Lysychansk, they will probably need significant Russian efforts, probably within weeks, to figure it out. Until then it may look like the partially leveled cities of Severodonetsk, near Popasna and Mariupol.
