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Rifts are emerging in Iran’s ruling political elite over a nationwide popular uprising that has lasted more than seven weeks and challenged the Islamic Republic as rarely before in its 43 years of existence. The rifts so far are less potentially cataclysmic than the splits that emerged in the political and clerical ruling classes after an explosion of popular mass protests in 2009 sparked by the disputed re-election of a hardline president. It also remains unclear whether any moderation in tone reflects changing politics or empty gestures from a frightened leadership aimed at calming and slowing the protests. “I hope that security will be fully restored in the country soon, so that the legal and necessary changes can begin to establish a new kind of governance in economic, social and political fields within the framework of the Islamic Republic,” Parliament Speaker Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf. , a hardliner, was quoted as saying this week days after he called for the protests to be crushed. Analysts say the changes are significant, showing that the protest movement is having a measure of success in sowing confusion, panic and discord in the top ranks of a regime dominated by hardliners. There are also signs that the regime is beginning to count on the protesters as a legitimate social force. “You can see that there are some voices that are not necessarily calling for a change in the law but in the way the law is applied,” said Raz Zimmt, at Tel Aviv University’s Alliance Center for Iranian Studies. “I wouldn’t be surprised if we could see more and more voices.” The protests, sparked by the death of 22-year-old Mahsa Amini, pit a leaderless movement of mostly young people against an aging, ultra-conservative political and clerical ruling clique that has driven moderates from its ranks. So far the regime has resorted almost exclusively to violence to quell the unrest, refusing to consider key opposition demands, such as removing or loosening the hijab law that led to Amini’s arrest at the hands of the morality police, but has expanded to to include expanded political and social freedoms and economic improvements. At least 319 protesters have been killed and about 15,000 arrested in the unrest, according to Hrana, an Oslo-based human rights group. A statement reportedly approved by 227 members of parliament called on officials to impose the death penalty against arrested protesters, and the judiciary on Tuesday reiterated calls for prosecutors to pursue charges that carry the death penalty against the protesters. But even among the hard-liners who control the state apparatus, voices of dissent and concern have emerged. Live bullets were fired by security forces to clear protesters in Iran’s Zahedan on Friday, according to a video posted on social media (Twitter) Reformist newspapers have been wary of public calls for change from moderates, including Hassan Khomeini, grandson of the Islamic Republic’s founder. “It’s better to listen to the people,” he reportedly said in an interview. And even tightly controlled state television allowed some mediocre voices on the air. Analysts noted that the statement by lawmakers calling for the death penalty against the protesters did not include the names of members of parliament, suggesting a focus on the elite ranks. Neither Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei nor the country’s president, Ibrahim Raisi, have given full approval to the crackdown. “Raishi sweeps this thing on Khamenei and Khamenei sweeps it on Raishi,” said a Tehran political science researcher. “They’re just mixing this thing into the other thing.” This week, a conservative lawmaker from the city of Tabriz, the site of some of the fiercest protests in Iran, called on the government to respond to public discontent. “What happened was not only the result of the death of Mrs. Mahsa Amini,” Ahmad Alireza-Begi told the Iran Observer. “What happened to this lady was the spark that lit an accumulation of worldly demands, which brought us bitter and damaging results.” Elsewhere, cleric Mostafa Rostami, Supreme Leader Ali Khamenei’s envoy to the nation’s university system, acknowledged that the majority of respondents supported the protests, although he claimed that only a small number cited the hijab rules as a reason for their dissatisfaction. “We have to recognize that there are a number of fundamental problems in our society,” he said in a speech earlier this month. Iran’s Saeed Piramoun celebrates after scoring a goal in the Emirates Intercontinental Beach Soccer Cup 2022 final between Brazil and Iran in Dubai, pretending to cut his hair in sympathy with the protesters (EPA) Ali Rabei, a former spokesman for ex-president Hassan Rouhani, warned in an op-ed in the Etemad newspaper that hardliners are “exerting maximum pressure to disrupt efforts to mediate between the government and the protesters.” In a sharp show of dissent, Iran’s top Sunni Muslim cleric, Molavi Abdolhamid, on Friday called for a national referendum on the country’s future, drawing ire from Revolutionary Guard leaders. “People have been protesting for almost 50 days,” he said during a sermon in the country’s southeast, where security officials have shot dozens of protesters in weeks of unrest. “They have bled and suffered deaths. You can’t chase them away.” This week, several prominent Iranian conservatives and a former ambassador to Moscow also publicly criticized controversial arms sales to Russia that have been used against Ukraine, where they targeted civilians. Iran initially denied the sales and later claimed they were sold before the start of the war, a claim contested by Kyiv. Shows of dissent by regime leaders and small steps by the authorities to acknowledge public demands will likely do little to appease a protest movement that appears determined to topple the Islamic Republic. Mr Khamenei seems to have long believed that bowing to public pressure would only open the door to even more expectations of change. “The question remains how far they can go,” Mr Zimmt said. “They may be concerned that agreeing to any practical change could lead to further demands, such as the segregation of men and women and political prisoners. There’s a limit to what they can do.” In Iran many have described a severe disconnect between the leadership and the protesters. The regime has mostly maintained a united front against the protesters, with little sign of dissent within the security forces. Iranian authorities are struggling to control the protests (AP) “It’s like the leaders are in their own cult and don’t even listen to what the other side is saying,” said the Tehran-based political science researcher. “They don’t understand each other. Leadership is not among the people. They are not on the same social media channels. They don’t shop with people.” But the appearance of cracks could be a critical step toward peeling away the layers of the elite in what some expect to be an insurgency of months or years. “It will be impossible to go back to what it was 50 days ago,” Mr Zimmt said. “The same enforcement of Islamic codes or the same repression is highly unlikely. We will see some change. I’m not sure they can do it right now.”
