Comment Arizona Secretary of State Katie Hobbs (R) is expected to win the Arizona governor’s race on Monday, narrowly defeating Republican Cary Lake, a prominent pro-choice naysayer whom Hobbs has called a threat to democracy. Hobbs positioned herself as a moderate alternative to an extreme candidate who, she argued, could sow chaos if elected. The Democrat oversaw Arizona’s 2020 election and defended it against unsubstantiated allegations of malfeasance that Lake, a former TV host, made central to her campaign. Shortly after the Associated Press and the major networks declared the race, six days after the state’s voting closed, Hobbs posted a tweet declaring victory. “Democracy is worth the wait,” he wrote. “Thank you, Arizona. I am so honored and proud to be your next governor.” Lake didn’t seem to accept the loss, casting doubt on the results an hour later in a tweet that read: “Arizonians know BS when they see it.” On the campaign trail, Hobbs said she would protect abortion rights in Arizona, where new restrictions went into effect after Roe v. Wade overturned. He also tried to appeal to Arizona’s independent and moderate Republican voters and won some support from prominent conservatives uncomfortable with the GOP’s direction. A fundraiser for Hobbs was attended by family members of the late Republican Sen. John McCain, while the political action committee of Rep. Liz Cheney (R), Trump’s most vocal critic of the GOP in Congress, ran ads against Lake. But Hobbs’ race with Lake was tight until the end, as Lake fired up the GOP base and capitalized on broader factors working in her party’s favor, such as high inflation and a backlash over federal border policy. When Hobbs refused to discuss Lake — saying Lake wanted a “spectacle” rather than a conversation — she drew criticism from both sides of the aisle. Much of the Republican establishment in Arizona worked against Lake in the GOP primary, supporting a more traditional candidate, Karrin Taylor Robson, who did not fully embrace Trump’s false campaign claims. And many worried that Lake, a Trump loyalist, would lose a purple state known for electing moderates like McCain — whom Lake mocked. “We took a stake through the heart of the McCain machine,” he told the Conservative Political Action Conference this year, making a stabbing motion for emphasis. But even critics recognized Lake’s charisma, and onetime opponents, including Gov. Doug Ducey (R), the co-chairman of the Republican Governors Association, eventually rallied behind her. A former social worker and state legislator, Hobbs became Arizona’s secretary of state in 2018, flipping the seat blue for the first time in more than 20 years. That put her in line if the governor were to leave office — and put her at the forefront of election officials facing threats and false accusations of wrongdoing after the 2020 election. Americans got to know Hobbs, who became a national television fixture after from this election, as a counterweight to electoral denial in a state that has nurtured unproven theories surrounding Trump’s loss. As governor, Lake would have played a role in voting certification in a key battleground state for 2024. And if she won, Lake was poised to call a special legislative session at the state Capitol to try to push sweeping changes to its election systems. Arizona, which he has mocked. He campaigned with other GOP candidates who also denied the results of the 2020 election, including far-right outsider Mark Finchem, who along with Lake sought to ban voting machines in the state. Finchem was projected to lose last Friday along with Trump-backed GOP Senate candidate Blake Masters, who challenged Sen. Mark Kelly (D). “We know that my opponent and her allies are sowing doubt and confusion throughout this campaign,” Hobbs said in an election night speech, reminding people that votes will take time to be counted. Hobbs’ victory means Democrats won a net of two governorships, with wins in Arizona, Maryland and Massachusetts offset by the GOP’s gain in Nevada. In the swing state of Nevada, Republican Sheriff Joe Lombardo unseated Gov. Steve Sisolak (D) while criticizing his handling of crime, the coronavirus pandemic and the economy. But despite the GOP’s high hopes even for blue states like New York and Oregon, Democratic incumbents have held on elsewhere — including in swing races in Wisconsin, Michigan and Kansas. Hobbs’ victory surprised many Republicans and even some Democrats. Officials expecting a narrow victory for Kelly, however, predicted that Hobbs — who was not a commanding presence on the campaign trail — would fall to the former news anchor widely known in metro Phoenix, home to most of the state’s voters. Although partial results released mid-last week began to point to a Senate victory for Kelly, GOP modeling still puts Lake ahead of her Democratic challenger, according to people familiar with the numbers. By the weekend, however, the dynamic had shifted, with one Lake councilor calling the governor’s race a “coin toss.” Republican anxiety intensified when results showed Lake did not perform as well as expected, particularly among independent voters, according to a person familiar with the conversations who spoke on condition of anonymity because they were not authorized to discuss them publicly. Lake spent the final days of the campaign feeding the GOP base rather than courting independents, a move that confused some strategists and donors. More than a third of Arizona voters are unaffiliated, according to state data, just under the share who identify as Republican and slightly more than the share who identify as Democrats. He continued to attack McCain, asking a crowd: “We don’t have any McCain Republicans in here, do we? Get out!” She brought Stephen K. Bannon, the former White House chief strategist and executive chairman of Breitbart News, on stage with her and raved about his far-right radio show, “War Room.” She also unfoundedly implied that Hillary Clinton was trying to kill her and asked her audience to applaud Wendy Rogers, a far-right state congresswoman who has promoted white nationalists as “patriots” and called for the execution of her political opponents, once saying: We have to build more gallows.” The approach excited crowds of hardline supporters, but the enthusiasm doesn’t seem to have translated into a broad enough coalition to win. As ballots are still being counted, some Republicans acknowledged that messages from Trump, Lake, GOP Chairwoman Kelly Ward and others to vote in person or reject early polls on Election Day. elections, may have affected Republican turnout. The guidelines ran counter to the popularity of early voting in the state, and in the final days of the election, the GOP’s early voting performance dipped in Maricopa County. The GOP’s strategy hinged on smooth election management. Instead, about a third of polling places countywide had problems with printers that produce on-demand ballots, sparking a cascade of unsubstantiated accusations from Lake, Trump and other Republicans that the problems disproportionately targeted GOP districts. County officials pushed back hard, and a Washington Post analysis of data found that GOP districts in the county were not disproportionately affected by the problems. Yvonne Wingett Sanchez in Phoenix and Amy B Wang in Washington contributed to this report.
