Chance: 0/5 Verdict: There won’t be enough progress here to meet the 1.5C target, but there is a small step forward – the UN estimates that the improved plans submitted will reduce temperatures by around 0.1C. But we are still headed for a catastrophic 2.5C of warming with current policies.
Delivering on the pledge of $100 billion a year in climate finance
Since 2009, poor countries have pledged $100 billion a year from 2020 to help them reduce greenhouse gas emissions and adapt to the effects of extreme weather. This goal has not been achieved and will not be achieved before next year. Chance: 0/5 Verdict: The rich world has caused the climate crisis, but the poor world – with tiny emissions in comparison – bears the brunt. The more rich countries fail to deliver on their promises, the less trust there is in them among developed countries.
Adaptation financing
Most of the money that goes to the developed world for climate finance is intended to help middle-income countries with projects to reduce emissions, such as wind and solar farms. But what poorer countries need most is help in ways to adapt to the extreme weather they are already seeing, such as reforesting, building flood barriers and installing early warning systems. Only about a fifth of climate finance is currently earmarked for adaptation, and nations pledged last year to double that. Chance: 1/5 Verdict: The Egyptian presidency of Cop27 launched an adaptation action plan as a key focus of the first week, so there will be progress, but the goal of doubling adaptation funding will not yet be achieved this year.
Loss and damage
One of the biggest issues in Cop27 is loss and damage. This refers to the most devastating effects of the climate crisis, so extreme that countries could not adapt to them. Examples include the record droughts that threaten nearly 150 million people with severe hunger in Africa and the record floods that hit Pakistan this September. Poor countries say they need funding for rescue and reconstruction when such disasters strike, but rich countries have so far been reluctant to find any way to finance it. Likelihood: 2.5/5 Verdict: Loss and damage is firmly on the official agenda for this conference – which was secured after a late night of negotiations at the start – but won’t be settled here. Countries have only begun the process of defining what loss and damage means and how aid for poor countries can be structured. While some countries have found funding, discussions about how to find the hundreds of billions needed will continue long after the delegates leave Egypt. The most important stories on the planet. Get all the week’s environmental news – the good, the bad and the must-haves Privacy Notice: Newsletters may contain information about charities, online advertising and content sponsored by external parties. For more information, see our Privacy Policy. We use Google reCaptcha to protect our website and Google’s Privacy Policy and Terms of Service apply.
Reforming the World Bank
The World Bank is not on the agenda of the UN climate summit – it is a completely separate institution from the UN. But many world leaders here have called for reform of the bank, which they said failed to focus on the climate crisis and was not fit for the 21st century. Beleaguered World Bank president David Malpas heads to Sharm el-Sheikh, but his job will look much more precarious by the end of this fortnight. Likelihood: 4/5 Verdict: If the World Bank is to be reformed, which looks increasingly necessary and likely, the pressure exerted on Cop27 will be a major factor in achieving it.
Movement for African gas
Many African countries are sitting on large reserves of fossil fuels and with rising gas prices around the world they would like to exploit these reserves. Oil and gas companies would also like to invest in them, but rich countries and climate experts warn that doing so would add to a climate crisis that is already having devastating effects on the continent’s poorest. African countries reek of hypocrisy, pointing out that the rich have already burned through their supplies. Likelihood: 5/5 Verdict: There will definitely be movement on the African gas in this cop, but in which direction? Oil and gas investors are lurking in every corner of the convention center and will be looking to return home with climate-destroying deals.
