Together, Russia and Ukraine export almost a third of the world’s wheat and barley, more than 70 percent of its sunflower oil, and are major suppliers of corn. Russia is the world’s leading producer of fertilizers. World food prices have already risen and the war has made matters worse, preventing some 20 million tonnes of Ukrainian grain from reaching the Middle East, North Africa and parts of Asia. Weeks of negotiations for safe corridors for the exit of grain from the ports of the Black Sea of Ukraine have made little progress, with the urgency increasing as the summer harvest season arrives. “This must happen in the next two months [or] “It would be horrible,” said Anna Nagurney, who is studying crisis management at Amherst University in Massachusetts and is a board member of the Kiev School of Economics. He says 400 million people around the world rely on Ukrainian food supplies. The Food and Agriculture Organization of the United Nations (FAO) predicts that up to 181 million people in 41 countries could face food crisis or worse levels of hunger this year. Here’s a look at the global food crisis:
What is the situation?
Typically, 90 percent of the grain and other grains from Ukraine’s fields are shipped to world markets by sea, but have been restrained by Russian blockades on the Black Sea coast. Some cereals are routed to Europe by rail, road and river, but the quantity is a drop in the bucket compared to sea routes. The missions are also backed up because the gauges of Ukraine’s railways do not match those of its western neighbors. Ukrainian Deputy Agriculture Minister Markian Dmytrasevych has called on European Union lawmakers to help export more grain, including expanding the use of a Romanian Black Sea port, building more cargo terminals on the Danube River and for the transit of goods to Poland. border. But that means food is even further away from what it needs. “Now you have to travel all over Europe to return to the Mediterranean. “It has really added an incredible cost to Ukrainian cereals,” said Joseph Glauber, a senior fellow at the International Food Policy Research Institute in Washington. Ukraine has been able to export only 1.5 to 2 million tonnes of grain a month since the start of the war, up from 6 million tonnes, Glauber said. Russian grains do not come out either. Moscow says Western sanctions on its banking and shipping industries make it impossible for Russia to export food and fertilizers, and frighten foreign shipping companies from carrying them. Russian officials have insisted that sanctions be lifted to allow wheat to reach world markets. European Commission President Ursula von der Leyen and other Western leaders, however, say the sanctions do not affect food. A Ukrainian farmer wears armor and a helmet while working in the fields in the Zaporizhzhia region, Ukraine in April 2022 [File photo: Ueslei Marcelino/Reuters]
What do the parties say?
Ukraine has accused Russia of bombing agricultural infrastructure, burning fields, stealing grain and trying to sell it to Syria after Lebanon and Egypt refused to buy it. Satellite images taken in late May by Maxar Technologies show Russian-flagged ships in a Crimean port loaded with grain and then docked in Syria with their hatches open. Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy says Russia has caused a global food crisis. The West agrees with officials such as European Council President Charles Michel and US Secretary of State Anthony Blinken that Russia is arming food. Russia says exports could resume as soon as Ukraine removes mines from the Black Sea and arriving ships can be checked for weapons. Russian Foreign Minister Sergei Lavrov has vowed that Moscow will not “abuse” its naval advantage and “take all necessary measures to ensure that ships can leave freely.” Ukrainian and Western officials doubt the commitment. Turkish Foreign Minister Mevlüt Çavuşoλουlu said this week that it might be possible to build safe corridors without the need to clear mines, as the location of the explosive devices is known. But other questions would remain, such as whether insurers would provide coverage for ships. Dmitrasevic told EU agriculture ministers this week that the only solution was to defeat Russia and unblock the ports: “No other interim measures, such as humanitarian corridors, will address the issue.”
How did we get here?
Food prices were rising before the invasion, due to factors such as bad weather and a poor harvest, reducing supplies, while global demand recovered sharply from the COVID-19 pandemic. Glauber cited poor wheat harvests last year in the US and Canada and a drought that hit soybean yields in Brazil. Also exacerbated by climate change, the Horn of Africa is facing one of the worst droughts in four decades, while a heat wave in India in March reduced wheat yields. This, along with rising costs for fuel and fertilizers, has prevented other major grain-producing countries from filling the gaps.
Who is hit the hardest?
Ukraine and Russia mainly export commodities to developing countries that are more vulnerable to cost increases and shortages. Countries such as Somalia, Libya, Lebanon, Egypt and Sudan are heavily dependent on wheat, corn and sunflower oil for the two warring nations. “The burden is on the very poor,” Glauber said. “This is a humanitarian crisis, there is no doubt.” In addition to the threat of starvation, rising food prices are at risk of political instability in such countries. It was one of the causes of the Arab Spring and there are concerns about a recurrence. Developing countries’ governments must either allow food prices to rise or subsidize costs, Glauber said. A moderately prosperous country like Egypt, the world’s leading importer of wheat, can afford to absorb higher food costs, he said. “For poor countries like Yemen or countries in the Horn of Africa – they will really need humanitarian aid,” he said. Hunger and hunger are haunting this part of Africa. Prices for basic commodities such as wheat and cooking oil have in some cases more than doubled, and millions of animals used by families for milk and meat have died. In Sudan and Yemen, the Russia-Ukraine conflict has culminated in years of internal crises. UNICEF has warned of an “explosion of child deaths” if people focus only on the war in Ukraine and do not act. UN agencies estimate that more than 200,000 people in Somalia are facing “catastrophic famine and starvation”, about 18 million Sudanese may experience acute hunger by September and 19 million Yemenis are facing food insecurity this year. Wheat prices have risen by up to 750 percent in some of these countries. “In general, everything has become expensive. “Whether it is water or food, it is almost impossible,” said Justus Liku, a food safety adviser to the CARE relief team, who recently visited Somalia. In Lebanon, bakeries that used to have many types of flat bread now sell only basic white pies to preserve flour.
What’s up;
For weeks, UN Secretary-General Antonio Guterres has been trying to secure a deal to unblock Russian grain and fertilizer exports and allow Ukraine to transport goods from its main port of Odessa. But progress was slow. In the meantime, a huge amount of grain has stuck in Ukrainian silos or farms. And more is coming – the winter wheat harvest in Ukraine is starting soon, putting more pressure on storage facilities, although some fields are likely to be left unreasonable due to the fighting. Serhiy Hrebtsov is unable to sell the mountain of grain to his farm in the Donbas area because transport links have been cut off. Rare buyers mean prices are so low that agriculture is unsustainable. “There are some options for sale, but it’s like throwing it away,” he said. US President Joe Biden says he is working with European partners on a plan to build temporary silos on Ukraine’s borders, including Poland – a solution that will also address the different railroad gauges between Ukraine and Europe. The idea is that the grain can be transported to silos and then “to cars in Europe and taken to the ocean and transported around the world. “But it takes time,” he said in a speech on Tuesday.
What costs more?
Wheat prices rose 45% in the first three months of the year compared to the previous year, according to the FAO wheat price index. Vegetable oil has jumped 41%, while prices of sugar, meat, milk and fish have also doubled. The increases fuel faster inflation worldwide, make groceries more expensive and increase costs for restaurant owners, who have been forced to raise prices. Some countries are reacting by trying to protect domestic supplies. India has cut sugar and wheat exports, while Malaysia has cut exports of live chickens, worrying Singapore, which supplies one-third of its poultry from its neighbor. The International Food Policy Research Institute says that if food shortages increase as the war continues, this could lead to more export restrictions that further raise prices. Another threat is the rare and expensive fertilizer, which means the fields could be less productive as farmers are stingy, said Steve Mathews of Gro Intelligence, an agricultural data and analysis company. There are particularly large shortages of two of the major chemicals in fertilizers, of which Russia is a major supplier. “If we continue to have the lack of potassium and phosphates we have at the moment, we will see a drop in yields,” Matthews said. “No questions about that in the years to come.”
