Extensive answer: Probably not, and even if it does, it may not be dangerous enough to cause real harm, given how much immunity the population now has. I wrote about the new Omicron sub-variants, BA.4 and BA.5, a few weeks ago. Early indications are that they are more contagious than the current dominant subdivision in the US, BA.2.12.1, which is more contagious than the original Omicron, which was itself insanely contagious. Worse, because natural immunity to Omicron appears to last only a few months, a previous infection is not a real defense in BA.4 and BA.5. In fact, both are so immune that they may be able to boost immunity even in someone who has had a recent infection. The bottom line is that people will stick to COVID over and over again in the Omicron era. There is no short-term vaccine that could prevent it: Although mRNA vaccines offer good immunity to serious diseases, a vaccine that would offer immunity to a la infection the smallpox vaccine seems impossible. So, we are all destined to catch some minor variant of the Omicron or another eventually. In this case, it is important to know if these sub-variables become more infectious. You may remember that after the Omicron outbreak in Africa last winter, scientists tried to understand why those infected with it seemed to have milder symptoms than with previous coronavirus strains. The answer, according to some researchers, had to do with where the virus took root in the body. Previous strains reproduced in the lungs, causing the deadly pneumonia that killed millions. However, Omicron did not replicate effectively in the lungs. Reproduces in the upper respiratory tract. Because it did not damage important organs, more people could shake it off without serious damage. Researchers in Japan say they have evidence that BA.4 and BA.5 are better at spreading to the lungs than their grandparents. According to preliminary data from Kei Sato at the University of Tokyo and colleagues, BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 may have evolved to revitalize lung cell infection, rather than upper respiratory tract tissue. road – making them more similar to older variants such as Alpha or Delta… Professor Sato’s experiments show that BA.4, BA.5 and BA.2.12.1 reproduce more efficiently in human lung cells than BA.2, while further hamster experiments suggest that BA.4 and BA.5 may to cause more serious illness. “These things seem to be returning to the most dangerous form of infection, so they are falling down the lungs,” said Dr. Stephen Griffin, a virologist at the University of Leeds. The game is over, man. Game over. Or is it? Let’s look at some numbers. According to this site, BA.4 and BA.5 represent the vast majority of cases in the last 60 days in South Africa, the country hardest hit by the new variants. Over the past 60 days, BA.4 represents 63 percent of confirmed cases and BA.5 20 percent more. Sixty days is also enough time for a wave of deaths to appear in the data, as the typical period from infection to death due to COVID is about one month. Are we seeing a sharp increase in deaths recently in South Africa due to the ominous prevalence of BA.4 and BA.5? We do not: South African researcher Tulio de Oliveira, who sounded the global alarm at Omicron last year, says BA.4 and BA.5 were the * least * deadly wave the country has ever experienced. It is more difficult to draw safe conclusions for the US and the UK, as BA.4 and BA.5 are either not yet dominant or have not been dominant long enough for us to draw a conclusion about how deadly they can be. is. Scientists in England believe the two variants are spreading rapidly there, possibly fueled by recent jubilee celebrations for Queen Elizabeth. Cases have increased by more than 30 percent in the last seven days – and the same goes for hospitalizations in particular. This is an interesting case in point. But how much bigger? See what the death curve looks like: Many of the newly treated patients may die in the next week or two, sending the curve up, but there is still no evidence that the wave England is currently experiencing is particularly deadly. Maybe this is because BA.4 and BA.5 are not as contagious as we feared, but it could also be that medicine has stuck to the virus and turned COVID cases that would have been fatal a year ago into short hospital stays. . Combine extensive population immunity with better therapies such as Paxlovid and a much larger knowledge base among physicians and nurses about how to treat ER disease, and even an infectious subtype may not be as contagious in practice. Both variants may be dangerous enough to send you to the hospital more often than Omicron, but they may not be dangerous enough to send you to the morgue. Not at this stage of the pandemic though. Another look at the data. Look back at the above quote and you will see that Japanese researchers have discovered that BA.2.12.1, not just BA.4 and BA.5, appear to reproduce more efficiently in the lungs than the original Omicron. Well, according to the CDC, there are a lot of BA.2.12.1 in the US since the beginning of May: We have experienced the same phenomenon that England has during these six weeks, with not only an increase in cases but also hospitalization. In fact, the number of people being treated for COVID is now twice as high as it was in mid-April, more indirect evidence that Omicron subtypes are actually more contagious. But what do we see when we look at the death curve? Without a pin. In fact, according to Drudge, we had fewer deaths from COVID yesterday (293) than we had on the same date a year ago (301) even though we had almost * nine times more confirmed cases – and probably many more times. indeed, if we could include all the people who tested positive yesterday in a quick test but never bothered to confirm their infection with a lab. Even in the age of Omicron variants, the virus kills far fewer people as a percentage of infections than in the past. There is still no good reason to believe that BA.4 and BA.5 are particularly threatening.
