The debate over sovereignty has returned to Quebec politics. The government of Prime Minister François Lego made a series of gestures that periodically raised the issue of the province’s location in Canada. Speaking at his party’s congress in late May, Legault raised the rhetoric with Ottawa, arguing that without expanded immigration powers, the “Quebec nation” could cease to exist. The Justice Minister recently called for a “collective debate” on whether the Canadian Charter of Rights and Freedoms should be implemented in Quebec. And the prime minister has also recruited two-star ruling candidates to run under his banner in provincial elections this fall. All this prompted the Quebec Liberals to say that Mr. Legault, a former minister of the Parti Québécois and ardent sovereign, has a secret separatist agenda. Marc Tanguay, a Liberal MNA, told the National Assembly earlier this month that the government was seeking a third “separation” referendum. In a later interview with The Globe and Mail, Mr Tanguay said the prime minister was pursuing a long-term sovereign strategy, trying to create a conflict with the federal government to create a “crisis” that would rekindle sentiment in favor of independence. “He ruled in a way that provoked the crisis,” Tanguay said. Leaders of the ruling Coalition Avenir Québec, a party that includes both federalists and rulers, have denied any wrongdoing. Family Minister Mathieu Lacombe has accused Mr Tanguay of “conspiracy to cry”. Bernard Drainville, another former PQ cabinet minister who will run for the party in the October general election, told reporters that “Quebec residents have no appetite” for a debate on sovereignty. “There are other reasons for the CAQ to focus on identity issues and make big demands on the federal government, in addition to laying the groundwork for independence,” said Marc André Bodet, an associate professor of political science at Laval University. The party comes from an “autonomous” political tradition that seeks to protect Quebec autonomy within the Canadian federation, Professor Bodet noted – and an election in a difficult economy is a fruitful time to present yourself as his protector. Quebec. However, some prominent federalists continue to see signs of danger to national unity under Mr Legault, despite his party’s disapproval. The prime minister’s strong nationalist rhetoric has found expression in two controversial laws surrounding Quebec’s identity – Bill 21, which prohibits some civil servants from wearing visible religious symbols. and Bill 96, which tightens the rules on the use of French. Both laws are likely to be finalized before the Supreme Court. If federally appointed judges repeal or severely weaken one of the two laws, it could lead to a revival of the independence movement, said Andre Pratt, a former journalist and senator who is currently advising Jean-ρέrès’s campaign for leader . “The separatists are praying every night that when the Supreme Court rules on the 21st and 96th bills, it will create a huge sense of independence,” Mr Pratte said. “I believe that François Lego is still a separatist and Bernard Drainville is still a separatist. “If the circumstances convince them that they can convince the Quebecers of this, they will try, I am sure of that.” The road to another referendum would be long and full of obstacles, as observers on all sides of the issue agree. Even though Mr. Legault still nurtures Quebec’s dream of independence privately, his government includes prominent cabinet ministers with strong ties to Canada, and starting the province in a secession effort would likely destroy his party. “The CAQ is not a vehicle built for independence,” said ientienne-Alexandre Beauregard, a nationalist writer and former political aide to the prime minister. “It’s not a coalition built for that.” Meanwhile, the political party that worked hardest to make Quebec independent, the Parti Québécois, is languishing. Former PQ Prime Minister Lucien Bouchard recently wondered aloud whether the party was still the right boat for independence, with a number of polls showing it below 10 per cent in popular support. The idea of sovereignty continues to thrill more hearts than its historic champion – with polls in recent years finding that about a third of Quebecers would vote Yes in a referendum – but the province is still far from “winning conditions” that the PQ had sought long before the question was put to a vote. If Mr Legault were to try to rally support for independence after a Supreme Court defeat or a failed negotiation with Ottawa, he would still face the issue of Quebec’s ability to stand on its own two feet, receiving billions in transbonds. every year, said Patrick Déry, a Montreal-based public policy analyst and deputy editor of Policy Options. These questions would be even more acute, as the Prime Minister has built his political career with the promise of ending the old eternal course between federalists and sovereigns who have defined Quebec politics for two generations. Quebec residents would see a tough turn to autonomy as a “Legault breach of contract,” Déry said. Many rulers remain deeply skeptical that Mr Legault intends to oust the province from Canada. He has lived through two failed referendums and seems to understand how difficult it is to secure a majority in favor of political independence, said Jean-François Lisée, a former PQ leader. “It is one thing to dominate the public debate and quite another to win fifty percent plus one. I think François Legault has incorporated this. “ Whatever the prime minister’s intentions, however, his actions and rhetoric could create a confrontation with the federal government that will be difficult to resolve without a debate on sovereignty, Lisée said. Especially Mr. Legault’s speech at the party congress – in which he said that Ottawa should give Quebec more control over immigration otherwise the province was in danger of becoming another “Louisiana”, where little French is spoken – will raise difficult questions if Justin Trinto Liberals say no. was added. “François Legault could be the Clouseau inspector of Quebec independence,” said Lisée, referring to the detective who worked for Pink Panther films that usually solve the case rather than himself. “If in five years, François Lego is the first prime minister of an independent Quebec, this will be Clouseau’s first moment.” Our Morning and Afternoon Newsletters are compiled by Globe editors, giving you a brief overview of the day’s most important headlines. Register today.
