Macron’s centrist group is under pressure to secure support from rivals to salvage Macron’s reform agenda following this weekend ‘s ousted parliamentary elections. If it fails, France could face a long period of political paralysis. Macron will invite all political parties that can form a group to the new parliament for talks on Tuesday and Wednesday, a source close to Macron said on Monday. Sign up now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register The loss of the absolute majority of his alliance in the Ensemble is a painful setback for Macron, who won a second term just two months ago. The French governments have long relied on a lower house of parliament that shares their political line and largely supports the proposals. “We have to think of a new way of functioning at the institutional level,” European Affairs Minister Clement Bonn, a close ally of the French president, told LCI. Sunday’s run-off vote left the Ensemble as the largest party, with a newly formed left-wing coalition in second place, the far right stronger than ever and the Conservatives as possible kings. read more “It will be complicated,” government spokeswoman Olivia Gregoire told France Inter radio. “We have to be creative.” Macron must now either form a broader coalition or accept to lead a minority government that negotiates with opponents by law. His only consolation: the opposition groups are the same tough opponents and in some cases torn apart by internal rifts. “Such a fragmented parliament is likely to lead to a political stalemate, with a much slower reform agenda,” said Philippe Gudin of Barclays. “This is likely to weaken France’s position in Europe and jeopardize the country’s already weak fiscal position.” Leaders of the hard left and far right have called on Prime Minister Elizabeth Bourne to step down after just over a month in power. Gregoire said Macron would soon reshuffle his government.
WHAT’S NEXT?
French President Emanuel Macron delivers a statement as he visits NATO forces at Mihail Kogalniceanu Air Base near Constanta, Romania, June 15, 2022. Yoan Valat / Pool via REUTERS / File Photo Jean-Luc Melanson’s broad left-wing Nupes alliance and Marin Le Pen’s far-right promised to oust Macron and his government relentlessly in parliament. A key question is whether Macron will try to reach an agreement with the conservative Les Republicains (LR) or follow the minority government path. Les Republicains leader Christian Jacobs has said the party will remain in opposition. However, while describing the stance as “almost unanimous”, some prominent members have suggested that the party should work with the government and act as king. The Ensemble and the Conservatives have compatible financial platforms, including support for higher retirement ages and nuclear power. Together they would have the absolute majority.
FIRST TESTS
Some cracks appeared on the left. While Melanson said Bourne should face a vote of confidence, Socialist leader Olivier For, another senior member of the left-wing coalition, said the call for Bourne’s ouster was not a common position of the bloc at present. If Macron fails to reach an agreement with the opposition, the eurozone’s second-largest economy faces a political stalemate and possible early elections on the line. A first major test will be a cost-of-living bill that Gregoire said the government will present in eight days when the new parliament convenes for the first time. Proposals for renewable energy sources expected later this summer will test the left, which is divided over nuclear energy. The final figures showed that Macron’s central camp won 245 seats – well below the 289 required for an absolute majority, the Nupes 131, the far right 89 and Les Republicains 61. Macron himself has not yet commented on the election result and the opposition urged him to break his silence. While the weekend vote was a bitter setback for the 44-year-old president, whose victory in April made him the first French president in two decades to secure a second term, financial markets have taken a big hit. The euro and shares had little effect, while French bonds showed some widening pressure on Monday. “The hope that some foreign exchange traders put in Macron in 2017 has recently evaporated, so that election victories or defeats no longer play a significant role in the euro exchange rates,” Commerzbank analyst Ulrich Leuchtmann said in a note. Sign up now for FREE unlimited access to Reuters.com Register Additional references by Leigh Thomas, Myriam Rivet, Julien Ponthus, Elizabeth Pineau, Richard Lough, Benoit Van Overstraeten, Tassilo Hummel. Writes Ingrid Melander. Edited by Catherine Evans and Tomasz Janowski Our role models: The Thomson Reuters Trust Principles.
